Open Rants by kcchiefs21

I read Walt's rankings on this site and thought it'd be a good place to post my own thoughts. If you have any questions or inquiries feel free to email me at cstoltz58@gmail.com, I'll do my best to get back to you. I'll post links to my other rankings in the space below as I work on them. 

Notes: Handcuffs (solidified backups) are more important this year than any year in recent memory, and I'd recommend picking 3/4  backs you feel good about and handcuffing at least one of your top two backs. Injuries are more prevalent than ever, and there's a ton of depth, so it's good to lock down a backfield to protect yourself. Just make sure to grab a legitimate backup, and not someone who'd be part of a committee should the starter go down. There's a pretty big gap from 11 to 12 in my rankings for RBs and WRs this year. 

1. Saquon Barkley New York Giants 

Saquon's a generational talent, and should be the first pick in every draft. He's a great receiver, powerful back with speed to go the distance, and handles an insane workload. He is a as safe of a bet to lead RBs in fantasy points this year as there's ever been.

2. Christian McCaffery Carolina Panthers

Alvin Kamara is going to share the load with Latavius Murray, but McCaffery is going to shoulder a much higher proportion of touches, and thats really the only reason why I have him rated higher. The only real danger with McCaffery is Cam Newton's shoulder health. Their offense sputtered without Newton last year, and even with Will Grier as a backup now, the offense will still suffer without Cam. 

3. Alvin Kamara New Orleans Saints

As I touched on above, Kamara will be shouldering the load with Latavius Murray. It should swing closer to a 75/25 ratio favoring Kamara as opposed to the more even approach the Saints used to employ with Mark Ingram. It can be frustrating, especially on the goal line, but it does help ensure Kamara stays healthy all 16 games. One small thing to watch and be wary of is the Saints use of Kamara in the preseason, as they gave him way too many touches in week 1 along with their other starters. 

4. Le'Veon Bell New York Jets 

Bell is a pretty unknown quantity going into the season, but he has a few things working in his favor. First are fresh legs and a motivation to show everyone his worth. He's likely pretty pissed off and wanting to show out this year. Second is the Jets scheme, I doubt he runs for the totals he used too in Pittsburgh, but the Jets are going to use him a lot as a receiver out of the backfield. There was some internal conflict about coach Adam Gase not wanting to pay a RB as much as they paid Bell, but if anything I think that inspires Gase to attempt to get his money's worth out of Bell. 

5. Joe Mixon Cincinnati Bengals

Joe Mixon is looking like a break out fantasy player this season after a strong season last year. The Bengals offense will revolve around him with AJ Green's health looking like it could be a recurring issue all season. New coach Zac Taylor will want to use Mixon like the Rams used Gurley when he was in LA, and it should open things up in the passing game Mixon. Working against Mixon is the Bengals' weak offensive line, but the garbage time points he should get will help negate that. 

6. James Conner Pittsburgh Steelers

Conner should be improved having had the entire offseason to prepare as the starter. He's likely in great shape, knowing his work ethic, and the Steelers still feature one of the best offensive lines in the league. He might lose some work to Jaylen Samuels, but mostly in the receiving game, and the only real worries are if he can stay healthy a full 16 games, and if defensive coordinators stack the box against the Steelers in the beginning of the season to challenge the Steelers passing game without AB, which wouldn't be smart.  

7. Kerryon Johnson Detroit Lions

Johnson went under the radar last year due to his injury and the quality of last last year's rookie class. He was overshadowed, but this year that shouldn't be the case. He'll be more involved in the passing game and will be the focal point of a Lion's ground game that has become the emphasis of their offensive scheme. He's an extremely explosive player who runs with a low center of gravity, powerful leg drive, and a great sense of balance. He'll likely give up some carries to CJ Anderson, and you'll want to handcuff him with Anderson in case he proves to be an injury prone player. 

8. Leonard Fournette Jacksonville Jaguars

Fournette is a strong candidate for a bounce back season this year. The Jaguars removed some of the negative influences (TJ Yeldon) in the locker room, and he's reportedly made huge strides in his work ethic and professional approach. He's always going to be somewhat of an injury risk, but this is a prove-it season for Fournette and he's aware of it. He's going to be featured more in the passing game, and OC Jon Defillippo shouldn't be as pass heavy has he was in Minnesota with a better defense keeping games close, but there is a bit of a risk he repeats his pass heavy ways. 

9. Nick Chubb Cleveland Browns

Chubb was a stud last year, and he's really clinched the job in Cleveland. He'd be higher if it weren't for Kareem Hunt, but even with Hunt in the fold, Chubb should still see the majority of carries. Hunt has still been going out drinking with his friends, so it doesn't appear as though he has learned his lesson and could provoke a lengthy suspension at any point. Regardless of Hunt's status, Chubb will be great through week 8 and even if he suffers a drop in carries afterwards he should still be a solid low end RB1 and a fantastic RB2. 

10. Marlon Mack Indianapolis Colts

Marlon Mack really impressed towards the end of last season, and the Colts have brought in no competition besides the underwhelming D'Onta Foreman. The Colts offensive line is great, and with Andrew Luck defenses can't focus on stuffing the box with extra defenders. Mack will give up some third down work to Nyheim Hines, but Hines isn't a threat to take any of Mack's early down work. Mack's in one of the best situations in all of fantasy, and his biggest risk is Luck's health. If Luck goes down, or isn't able to get healthy,  defenses won't be as afraid of stacking the box against Jacoby Brissett. 

11. Aaron Jones Green Bay Packers

Aaron Jone is another back in a great situation, as he's thoroughly outplayed his competition in Green Bay. He is very similar to Marlon Mack. The Packers offensive line isn't quit the caliber of Indy's, but its good, and his success will also hinge a lot on Rodger's health like Mack's will on Luck. Jamaal Williams will steal some touches, but Jones is poised for a great season. 

12. Todd Gurley Los Angeles Rams

A healthy Gurley is ranked second on this list, but I can't trust his arthritic knees. He is likely to start hot, but who knows for how long he can maintain it. It's a weird, uncertain situation. Darrell Henderson is going to spell Gurley this season more than he has been in the past, even if completely healthy, and the Rams offense is likely to regress as a whole. In general there's always someone in a draft that sees a guy like Gurley and takes the shot hoping for the best, and while it can work out, it usually doesn't and in the first few rounds of a fantasy draft its more important that you don't miss rather than hit a homerun, risky picks are more for middle and later rounds. I'd let someone else take the risk. 

13. Devonta Freeman Atlanta Falcons

Freeman would be ranked higher if he could be trusted to stay healthy, but even disregarding last season, he's struggled to maintain production from September and October into November and December. He's in a great situation and is probably really motivated for a comeback season, but if you draft him keep an eye on the backup situation in Atlanta. 

14. Phillip Lindsay Denver Broncos (PPR+)

It's unfortunate for Lindsay that he has to impress an entirely new coaching staff this season. His talent should win out, and he should be used more as a receiver this season, but Royce Freeman is going to be an annoyance, particularly on goal-line touches, all season long. Lindsay is still a high end RB2, but I'd make sure to handcuff him with Freeman, considering both players have a bit of trouble staying healthy. 

15. Chris Carson Seattle Seahawks

Chris Carson is a stud and its been very impressive how he's responded to the Rashaad Penny first round pick. He's going to be more involved in the passing game this season, and figures to get the majority of the goal-line work. His physical running style makes him a moderate injury risk, however, and Penny figures to see more touches this season. 

16. Dalvin Cook Minnesota Vikings (PPR+)

Cook could really take off this year for the Vikings, but he's a pretty big injury risk. Fullbacks are underrated and underutilized, and I wouldn't overlook the Vikings implementing a fullback more often in 2 back sets, as many of the most productive backs run behind a talented blocking fullback. The real problem with Cook is his dubious injury history, and that if thrusted into a starting role, Alexander Mattison won't be nearly as productive if you handcuff Cook with him. Mattison also figures to have a role as a RB2, and could take some goal-line carries from Cook. 

17. David Montgomery Chicago Bears

David Montgomery is very similar to Priest Holmes, and should earn more work as the season goes on. Tarik Cohen will get his looks especially on third downs, limiting Montgomery's potential, but he should be a reliable and productive back this season, that could really come on later in the season. 

18. Josh Jacobs Oakland Raiders (PPR+)

Josh Jacobs should handle a feature role right away and has a good amount of upside this season. The Raiders offensive line is huge, and that could help open up holes for Jacobs. The supporting cast is a worry, and Jacobs' ability to handle a full workload and stay healthy is a worry as well. He could really do well as a check down option for Derek Carr and has a lot of upside. 

19. Mark Ingram Baltimore Ravens 

The Ravens are going to run the ball, run it again, then run it some more. All 3 of their QBs are running threats, and should help open up rushing lanes for Ingram. Teams might actually play 9 man boxes and force them to throw the ball on early downs, but that's a risky strategy even with Lamar Jackson's questionable throwing ability. Ingram should be a big beneficiary of this strategy, and is a good enough receiver to rack up some catches as well, as Lamar primarily threw to his TE's and RB's last season. 

20. Derrick Henry Tennessee Titans

Henry's a bulldozer that typically plays better in November and December than in the early goings of the season. He set the league on fire towards the end of last season, and is hoping to carry that momentum forward. Taylor Lewan's suspension will make things more difficult, and the Titans passing game as a whole isn't doing him much favors in opening up the box. He offers close to zero upside as a receiver, but is valuable for fantasy playoffs. 

21. David Johnson Arizona Cardinals (PPR+)

Super hot take here, but there's a lot of projections with David Johnson I don't agree with. First and foremost, Bruce Arians runs primarily singleback sets with the back 7 yards deep from the line of scrimmage, as we've seen with Adrian Peterson, certain RBs that thrive in that alignment struggle to read the hole and accelerate to the line of scrimmage while playing out of shotgun, and I think Johnson might be one of those. It's heavily assumed that Johnson will rebound and be a perfect mesh with Kliff Kingsbury's offense, but that seems like a dangerous assumption. There's no guarantee he is the same player he was before he was ravaged by injury the last two seasons, and given that his best traits were explosive acceleration and lateral agility, it seems like a risky pick. Lastly, there's no guarantee he doesn't get injured again, so I think he's risky player not worth his ADP, though he does have the potential to rack up a lot of catches in this new offense. 

22. Lamar Miller Houston Texans

The Texans are going to be forced to rely on Miller this season until he gets hurt, as it seems unlikely they'd rotate him with one of their undrafted rookies or Duke Johnson on early downs. It seems he should receive the majority of touches in a talented offense unless he gets hurt so he's a solid RB3. The offensive line is awful, but the talent at receiver and the threat of Watson taking off should help spread the defense out for running lanes. The Texans have the most cap space in the league, so I've heard speculation they might trade for Melvin Gordon, but I don't think the Charger will be willing to trade Gordon to another AFC contender. 

23. Ezekiel Elliot Dallas Cowboys

This ranking would catapult to number 5 on the list should Elliot return soon from his holdout, but as we all saw with Le'Veon last season, this hold out could be huge trouble. Elliot is different than Gordon, in that he's two years away from free agency, but his antics have to be wearing thin on Jerry Jones and the Cowboys. As I said with Gurley, someone's going to take a risk on him pretty high based on his upside, and I wouldn't be that guy. If he does come back though, I don't think he receives as many touches as years past, as the Cowboys will try to incorporate rookie Tony Pollard, especially in the passing game. 

24. Austin Ekeler Los Angeles Chargers (PPR+)

Who knows when and if Melvin Gordon returns, as it stands now, Ekeler is a safer bet. He figures to handle most of the carries, while splitting time with Justin Jackson, and is more of a receiving threat than Jackson. He's a bit of a risky pick because of Gordon and he's a bit of an injury, but in the mid-to-late-rounds he's definitely worth it based off his upside. 

25. Tony Pollard Dallas Cowboys

Tony Pollard has been hyped up like crazy by the Cowboys, some of this probably to take leverage away from Zeke, but he's a legitimate talent. He's a hyper athlete who could translate his athleticism into a huge season for the Cowboys. In my leagues the past two years, the champions are the guys who took Kareem Hunt and James Conner late in the draft, and Tony Pollard has the potential to be one of those huge steal, while having a solid floor as 3rd down receiving back should Elliot return.