Open Rants by kcchiefs21

I read Walt's rankings on this site and thought it'd be a good place to post my own thoughts. If you have any questions or inquiries  feel free to email me at cstoltz58@gmail.com, I'll do my best to get back to you. I'll post links to my other rankings in the space below as I work on them. 

Notes: There's a lot of depth at QB, a lot of fantasy analysts encourage you to wait on picking a QB highly, but I think that's a little overstated of a strategy. Having a top 5 QB is invaluable, so I'd encourage you to take a shot on who you like. I think depth is super important this year, and picking 2 solid QBs protects you from injury, and also opens up a lot of trade possibilities. Most people now tend to focus on other positions over QB so if you zig when your whole league zags you could end up with a few teams strong in skill positions and weak at QB offering you a very generous trade. 

1.  Pat Mahomes Kansas City Chiefs

Reports out of training camp say that Mahomes has made drastic improvements from last training camp. I don't see how it's possible for him to be that much better, but I think it's a good sign that he doesn't regress this season. Someone's probably going to pick him high in your draft, so my only recommendation if you pick him early is to make sure you have a good grasp on the later round values at RB WR and TE. 

2. Deshaun Watson Houston Texans

Watson's going to put up big numbers this year as long as he's healthy. The Texans have got worse in the secondary, so they'll be engaging in a lot of shootouts. He has more depth at his skill positions this year, but the offensive line should only improve marginally, and he could be an injury risk due to poor protection. 

3. Baker Mayfield Cleveland Browns

Mayfield's such a popular player that he's going to go earlier than projected in most mock drafts. The main concern with him is the pass protection with the lackluster pair of tackles in Greg Robinson and Chris Hubbard. That said, Freddie Kitchens is great at calling plays that fit Mayfield's skill set and Mayfield seems totally in charge of the offense. 

4. Kyler Murray Arizona Cardinals

Pretty hot take here, but Murray is the only player I'd want to draft on the Cardinals. The offense will run through Murray and he'll really distribute his targets evenly trying to stretch out the defense. The rushing yards will of course be a plus, but the pace of play will also be a huge factor as he'll likely attempt more passes than any other QB this season. 

5. Lamar Jackson Baltimore Ravens

I'm not convinced Jackson or the Ravens play winning football this year, but he could rack up 180-200 carries this year which would obliterate the record for QB carries in a season. That said, Lamar projects as RB2 combined with a QB2 in fantasy this season, which should make him a pretty unique and valuable player. It'll be important to draft a good backup if you pick Lamar, someone steady like Drew Brees, because there's no telling how his body will hold up under that work load. 

6.  Andrew Luck Indianapolis Colts

Andrew Luck's preseason injury is hurting him some in the rankings here. If completely healthy I'd put him at number 3. Though he's an injury risk, he's still a very valuable player as he has an amazing command of the Colts offensive scheme and should only get better with the improved personnel and a year of experience under Frank Reich, who is a top 5 offensive play-caller in the league.

7. Cam Newton Carolina Panthers

This projection is based mostly on the improvement of the Panthers supporting cast around Cam. Their offensive line should be better with the Paradis signing and Daryl Williams returning, and DJ Moore and Curtis Samuel look like they'll emerge as one of the NFL's strongest WR duos this season. The risk with Cam is his shoulder health, and you should make sure to have a strong second option at QB if you pick him. 

8. Matt Ryan Atlanta Falcons

Matt Ryan is a really safe pick and sure to be a really productive starter. The Falcons offense should improve with Dirk Koetter back at OC,  Calvin Ridley having a full offseason to work with the first team offense, and Devonta Freeman returning (thought I doubt he plays a full 16 games). Chris Lindstrom should help improve the blocking, but Kaleb McGary's likely to struggle at right tackle. 

9. Russell Wilson Seattle Seahawks

Wilson is really only capped by the Seahawks run first approach, because of it he puts up modest point totals in a handful of games a season. On the other hand, Wilson usually turns it on later in the season as the team is making a playoff push and will put the team on his back to score points. He'd pair well with someone like Jameis Winston that is likely to start hot and taper off as the season goes on. 

10. Aaron Rodgers Green Bay Packers

Rodgers is a huge injury risk, and could be a bust pick because of it, but as long as he's healthy he's a strong option. There's usually a good amount of fluctuation to him, and he usually has a few super strong outputs a season. It'll be interesting to see how he adapts to the new offense installed by HC Matt La Fleur and if there's any growing pains. I wouldn't consider his typical level of play as a sure thing going into this season. 

11. Drew Brees New Orleans Saints

Drew Brees doesn't put up the numbers he used too in his heyday, but he's a strong consistent option at QB. He has the best eyes in football, able to look off coverage and get his receivers open and that won't change even if his arm diminishes. The Saints are less reliant on Brees than they used to be, and that hurts his fantasy value some. 

12. Sam Darnold New York Jets

The Jets figure to throw the ball a lot this season. Their cornerbacks are very weak, and they could find themselves a good amount of shootouts. The presence of both Le'veon Bell and Ty Montgomery at RB really bode well in Darnold's favor, as well as Chris Herndon (when he returns from his suspension in week 5). That's a great complimentary cast to Roddy Anderson and Jamison Crowder, and the Jets should feature a lot of west coast short to intermediate passing. 

13. Carson Wentz Philadelphia Eagles

I'm always reluctant to assume a player will regain a level of play that he held through one strong stretch (Joe Flacco's superbowl run for example), and I don't think Wentz plays at the level he did in MVP caliber 2017 season. I still think he'll have a solid season for Philly this year, just a regression from 2017, and Desean Jackson should really help open up the middle of the defense for Wentz to take advantage of one on one matchups with Alshon Jeffery, Zach Ertz, and Dallas Goedert. He'll stand in the pocket and take hits to deliver balls down the field, so you have to cross your fingers he stays healthy. 

14. Ben Roethlisberger Pittsburgh Steelers

You can easily make a case Ben should be higher than this. Most fantasy analysts have him projected much lower because of AB's departure, but I don't think Ben suffers that much from it. Juju Smith-Schuster will step into the role as his primary target, and Ben will play a committee approach with the rest of his receivers. He attempts a ton of passes a year, and I think the Steelers improvement on defense and a more consistent running game are bigger threats to his fantasy production. He's a good late round steal. 

15. Josh Allen Buffalo Bills

Allen has scatter shot accuracy but the Bills offense goes as his scrambling goes. He should improve as a passer with better blocking and receiving, and still be one of the games most premier rushing threats at QB. 

16. Tom Brady New England Patriots

The Patriots reverting to a early 2000's style of offense hurts Brady's fantasy prospects, but he's a consistent proven commodity at QB, and when/if the Patriots need him too he'll still spread the defense out and throw forty passes a game. I wouldn't draft him as QB1, but his consistency is invaluable in a QB2. 

17. Jameis Winston Tampa Bay Buccaneeers

There's a lot of people betting on Winston taking a big step forward this season, and I'm not really one of them. He will play smarter and more efficient football for stretches of a time, but when the game is on the line and the pressure is high, say if the Bucs go on a losing streak, he's likely to regress back to playing stupid hero ball. His upside is worth taking a shot on, but as a high end QB2 paired with someone more consistent. 

18. Jared Goff Los Angeles Rams

The Rams lost two of their interior offensive line this offseason and replaced them with mid round picks from the 2018 draft. Gurley's health is a question mark going forward, and Kupp might not rebound from his ACL like the Rams are hoping. A lot of faith is being placed in Sean McVay, but the Rams had one of the leagues least productive offenses from week 13 on. There's a lot of question marks here, and if the Rams cant provide Goff with a clean interior pocket to step into his throws he's likely to struggle. 

19. Kirk Cousins Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings are running a zone blocking offense this year, more similar to what Cousins ran in Washington, so he should be more comfortable and the offensive line should be more productive. If the defense struggles again they could find themselves in a good amount of shoot outs as well. Cousins is a solid high upside QB2 that can be obtained very late in drafts. 

20. Phillip Rivers Los Angeles Chargers

Rivers isn't very consistent game to game in fantasy. If anything Gordon's departure helps his outlook some, but I think its actually pretty irrelevant to his prospects. Rivers is going to go off some games and have duds in others, but he's a solid QB2. Having Hunter Henry return from injury should be a boon, but the Chargers are always so injured that Rivers' numbers usually drop late in the season. They're consistently one of the most banged up teams and  I wouldn't expect that to change, and their offensive tackle situation is a big problem. 

21. Jimmy Garoppolo San Francisco 49ers

They have different play styles, but the fantasy production with Garoppolo should be similar to Rivers. Both play for teams that can't stay or even get healthy, and both tend to have high ceilings with low floors. Unlike Rivers, Garoppolo can't be trusted to stay healthy, but his offensive line should provide him better protection than Rivers will receive. 

22. Mitch Trubisky Chicago Bears

Trubisky's fantasy value comes mostly from his scrambling ability. He has upside to improve this season, as hopefully a year in Head Coach  Matt Nagy's offense helps him play faster and think less, but I'd bet it will be similar to last season where his fantasy production game to game will hinge on how much Nagy can outsmart and trick the opposing DC. 

23. Andy Dalton Cincinatti Bengals

I don't think Dalton can throw the deep ball whatsoever, but he will likely be attempting a lot of passes, making a lot of short throws, and getting a lot of garbage time points this season. It's really the projected garbage time that has him higher than other QBs on this list. 

24. Dak Prescott Dallas Cowboys

In terms of fantasy, Prescott is more consistent game to game than the 4 QBs above, but he also doesn't put up big games like they do. These guys are all in a similar tier, so if you value consistency at QB2 I'd take Prescott, but if you want a guy who might score big and win you a game I'd choose one of the 4 above. He could take a step up with Cooper and in a contract year, so he has some extra upside as well. 

25. Nick Foles Jacksonville Jaguars

This is the start of a new tier of QBs that you should avoid drafting, but if you're in deeper leagues might have too. The Jaguars don't have a lot of talent in their skill positions. I was excited about Josh Oliver going into the season, but I think his hamstring injury is going to wipe out most of his rookie season. That said, they should feature a strong run game, and they should run a lot of the looks Foles is comfortable with, having his QB Coach Jon Defilippo in Philly as OC. The Jags are a team that you can usually count on being banged up, so his offensive line's health is something to monitor. 

26. Matthew Stafford Detroit Lions

The Lions are emphasizing the run game more and more with Matt Patricia at the helm, and the lack of talent at WR has reduced to Stafford to the role of a game manager. Stafford is still a great quarterback, but he's more reliant on his pass protection than a lot of the new-school QBs that have risen to prominence post 2010. He and the Lions are both being underrated by sports media going into the season. 

27. Derek Carr Oakland Raiders

Carr will be looking to prove himself after a dismal season last year, but AB's antics could prove to be a bigger distraction than he is a help on the field. If he misses stretches of time, Tyrell Williams will surely benefit, but the rest of the Raiders will suffer. It's a circus I'd rather avoid from a fantasy perspective. 

28. Joe Flacco Denver Broncos 

Hell hath no fury like a Joe Flacco scorned. There isn't a lot to like about the Broncos passing game on paper, but Flaccos' made pedestrian passing attacks work before, and there's a precedent for him performing above expectations when pissed off and trying to prove a point. 

29. Marcus Mariota Tennesee Titans

Most of Mariota's fantasy appeal came from his running ability, but he'll likely curtail that this season in an attempt to stay healthy and earn a long term contract. That said, you can't count on him staying healthy, and he needs his receiving weapons to improve to emerge as a fantasy relevant QB.