Open Rants by vaughanmoore1

I play DraftKings every week for both the NFL and college football and am absolutely obsessed. I have made a huge profit the last two weeks, coming in 5th out of 42K people in one of the contests. However, I used to lose money every week. This is not a coincidence, and I'll tell you why.

The experts love to speculate and concoct the "dream" lineup every week. They are so convincing with the stats they utilize that I found myself replicating most of their lineup. This caused me to lose money every weekend, and I never realized until I started trying different strategies. When I finally found the light a few weeks ago, it hit me- I have to use my gut. This is the only way you will win in daily fantasy- if you have a natural "gut feeling" and can almost picture a breakout performance from a certain player, you go with that player, no matter what the experts say. I went with Thomas Rawls over Charcandrick West a couple weeks ago because I figured, since West was EVERYONE'S "sleeper", he will disappoint, because this usually happens with common sleepers. Also, I figured out that Marshawn Lynch was out with an injury, and Rawls has flourished when given the opportunity this season. Plus, the 49ers have a terrible run defense. My gut feeling translated to reality- Rawls had a resounding 43 fantasy points, while West finished with 18 rushing yards on 10 attempts and didn't even reach 10 points. All the experts said (including you Walt and Chet, if you're reading this) that West was a "must-have" cheap option, but I knew something wasn't right. 

That being said, the experts do provide an effective guideline for your lineup. Many times, you'll see a few of their players have 30+ points. I'm not telling you that they're wrong, as they are called experts for a reason. They are extremely experienced in fantasy football (meaning Matthew Berry, Michael Fabiano, Chet, and the main guys) and provide intelligent insight into the statistics and which players are logically primed to have big games based on their matchup and production. Sometimes, these lead to awesome starts for your lineup, but certainly not always. I'll always use the West-Rawls example. Bottom line- if you have that "it" factor when it comes to succeeding in fantasy, always go with your gut, and use the expert lineups as a fill-in if you have open spots in your lineup.