NFL Betting Trends: Post-Close Road Wins
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There's a trend out there that I like to call the "Statfox Trend." Those of you who have followed my picks over the years know that it's very effective.
The premise: In Weeks 2-10, bet against any home favorite coming off a road victory of 1-3 points. Teams in that situation are just 17-38 against the spread since 2000. Road wins are hard to come by in the NFL. If a team is victorious away from home by a small margin, maybe they do too much celebrating and aren't focused during the week. Who knows? The fact remains you can make tons of money with this trend. Of course, there are exceptions. Here is a list of how each coach has fared coming off a slim road victory early in the season. |
|
Team |
Coach coming off road win of 1-3 points in Weeks 2-10 |
Record since 2000 |
ARZ |
Ken Whisenhunt |
0-1 |
ATL |
Mike Smith |
1-1 |
BAL |
John Harbaugh |
1-2 |
BUF |
Chan Gailey |
0-1 |
BUF |
Dick Jauron |
0-2 |
CAR |
John Fox |
0-2 |
CHI |
Lovie Smith |
1-2 |
CIN |
Marvin Lewis |
1-1 |
CLE |
Mike Pettine |
1-0 |
DAL |
Jason Garrett |
0-1 |
DEN |
Mike Shanahan |
0-1 |
GB |
Mike McCarthy |
1-0 |
HOU |
Gary Kubiak |
0-3 |
IND |
Tony Dungy |
2-4 |
JAX |
Jack Del Rio |
0-3 |
MIN |
Brad Childress |
0-1 |
NE |
Bill Belichick |
1-1 |
NO |
Sean Payton |
1-2 |
PHI |
Chip Kelly |
0-1 |
PHI |
Andy Reid |
1-2 |
SD |
Norv Turner |
0-1 |
SEA |
Pete Carroll |
1-0 |
SEA |
Mike Holmgren |
1-3 |
SF |
Jim Harbaugh |
1-0 |
SF |
Mike Nolan |
1-0 |
STL |
Scott Linehan |
1-0 |
TB |
Jon Gruden |
2-1 |
TEN |
Mike Munchak |
0-1 |
TEN |
Jeff Fisher |
2-1 |
FA |
Brian Billick |
2-1 |
FA |
Dave Campo |
0-1 |
FA |
Dom Capers |
0-1 |
FA |
Bill Cowher |
1-2 |
FA |
Butch Davis |
1-0 |
FA |
Jim Fassell |
0-1 |
FA |
Joe Gibbs |
0-1 |
FA |
Jim Haslett |
0-2 |
FA |
Steve Mariucci |
1-3 |
FA |
Mike Martz |
1-0 |
FA |
Dave McGinnis |
0-1 |
FA |
Jim Mora Jr. |
1-0 |
FA |
Dan Reeves |
0-1 |
FA |
Marty Schottenheimer |
1-0 |
FA |
George Seifert |
0-1 |
FA |
Mike Sherman |
0-1 |
FA |
Dick Vermeil |
1-1 |
FA |
Dave Wannstedt |
0-1 |
FA |
Gregg Williams |
1-0 |
Total Record |
30-56 |