Really like this exercise. I especially like it because I couldn't possibly agree with you more that the Colts should take Shedeur Sanders if he's there at 14. Forget everything else. You have a horrific QB situation and Daniel Jones should be a backup. And AR can't throw the ball functionally. Sanders completes passes. You have to do that to have any shot of advancing in the playoffs. AR is the type that can get you a #7 seed because he may not turn the ball over, but you aren't going anywhere against good teams with good defenses if you can't complete passes to keep your offense on schedule.
But on the site here, the only QB's that Indy appears to have spent Top 30's on were Ewers and Shough. As I note on my mock about the Saints being highly unlikely to pick Sanders, teams just don't draft 1st Round QB's that they don't meet with. I'm stunned, frankly, that Ballard is staking his job on AR and Jones. And it's why he's going to get fired. And that means a new GM will likely want a new head coach, unless Irsay poaches someone from the Philly front office.
Yeah, very little can be gleaned from the Combine, Pro Days, where every movement made and every word said has been mapped out by handlers and rehearsed ad nauseam. Teams have to get these QBs in their rooms, on the white board, throw concepts and verbiage at them, really get under the hood. It would be insane to invest in a QB without that baseline of information.
Agree with you on the 49ers. (My exercise really did set me straight in a few spots.) SF went from that Bosa/Buckner/Armstead/Jones wrecking crew to Bosa and practice squad guys. That's not gonna stand. Pick 1.11 simply has to be earmarked for D-line. Underrated factor: SF DL coach Kris Kocurek. Stewart, Williams and Nolen are upside prospects in need of refinement. Kocurek is arguably the best in the business.
Mason Graham is now 5.5 O/U -110 to the OVER. I'm convinced that CHI is moving up to 1.05 for Jeanty. When you look at how aggressively Poles knocked out the need at EDGE and revamped the O-line during free agency...the two high 2nd rounders...it all points toward a bold Day One move up the board.
@Mr. Bitter It really does just make all the sense in the world. They have the extra 2nd, from the fleecing of the Panthers. Graham is not a blue-chipper and someone you stand pat for. If you're Gladstone, this is a gift. I could even see a scenario where Graham drops all the way to 10 for the Jags, though it has to be unlikely. But no matter, if the Jags like the idea of beefing up the DT position, they can just pick Harmon in a draft like this and still have 2 picks high in the 2nd Round.
The 1.05 JAX/Graham chalk has always been kinda iffy to me. He's good, but not that good. When I watch the tape of a DT prospect projected to go top five, I expect to see a Suh/Quinnen Williams-type that is consistently pressing the iOL into the QBs lap or on the QB's ass. Graham is not that guy. He's a scrappy, assignment-sure technician that fits the run and creates piles at the LOS, but when you watch the tape, it's Kenneth Grant right next to him that is actually splitting double times and puncturing the backfield more times than not.
JAX/Graham is also iffy because Graham is a 3T, not a nose. The Jaguars already have Maason Smith and Arik Armstead at 3T. Sure, Smith was drafted by the former regime, but that was a 2nd RD investment and he's only 22. How do we know for sure that the new Jags coaching staff doesn't like his potential? And it's not like Armstead is a bum. He was miscast as an EDGE last season and will be better back at his natural spot. It's also a nearly $20M dead cap hit to release him, so he's probably not going anywhere soon.
I mean, if we are going to assume that the new JAX regime is going to just sweep out unproven recent 2nd-rounders drafted by the former regime, then why is nobody talking about JAX trading down and drafting Tyler Warren to replace Brenton Strange? It's not like Trevor Lawrence doesn't need all the help he can get.
@Mr. Bitter My new mock has Warren going 9th to the Saints instead of Will Johnson, but that is a really difficult pick to pin down because the Saints have so many needs and I don't think they are going to pick a QB. Regardless of who is available at 10, I absolutely think that the Jags should trade down with the Bears and pick up #39 if they can. Graham is not a blue-chipper and it's as simple as that. I don't hate it if they take Jeanty, though. But as I said, I like the current bet of Jeanty +300 to go #5 overall. The odds of his drafted team being the Jaguars is also +300, but I like the odds for him being the #5 pick much better. This is because you'd have two chances to win the bet, one if the Jags just take him, and two if the Bears (or someone else) trades up. Can't win the bet if someone trades up!
A couple of other notes: Schrager tweeted tonight that two players that will go earlier than mock consensus are Mykel Williams and Colston Loveland. I already have Williams 11th to SF and Loveland 14th to Indy, so I'm not inclined to change anything right now, but it's worth noting for sure.
Well played. Mocks that make you think are more interesting than media regurgitation. I'm now staring at my mock pick of Banks at 11 for SF, wondering if T-REX might fall there. I picked Banks for SF due to his high value OT position, assuming that a pretty good DL/E pick would be there for them in round 2. FanDuel has both OL and DL/E at +180, no help. Hmm...I think Banks is still a good bet, as Graham probably doesn't make it past the Saints. But then, every logical argument is like Swiss cheese. I look forward to your updates.
Banks' current 13.5 O/U is poised to drop. The UNDER is getting hammered. I'm not surprised at all. On tape, he's the cleanest LT prospect in the draft. I never understood why he ever dropped outside of the top-10 in mocks. Maybe prospect fatigue...I dunno. He's just so good, clean and consistent that it's boring. I think he's in play for the Jets at 1.07 and wouldn't be shocked if the Pats just picked him over T-Rex at 1.04.
Membou at LT is pure projection. I mean, he might be able to, but I see no evidence of it on tape. He plays like a guard. That would be a risky pick for SF if Membou slides.
Campbell plays so upright. I don't see him at guard. He'll lose the leverage game in there. I doubt he gets out of the top-10 though.
I was on the SF/future LT at 1.11 train for a while, but I'm off it now. Just really think that the 49ers can't afford to f*ck around. They absolutely have to address the DL early and often in this draft. Bosa is all alone. You put that DL out there against the Rams OL, and Stafford eats that defense alive.
I did this exercise to break out of the media regurgitation/groupthink rut that you mentioned. Every year around this time it's the same: All the legitimate information that can be gathered has been gathered, so all that's left for the media is rumor, speculation and flat-out disinformation that gets repeated so often that everyone just kinda accepts it, leading to the top 6 to 8 picks in every mock draft looking exactly the same. And every year, the actual draft looks nothing like the consensus and everybody gets like six to nine 1st RD picks right. I don't want to do that this year. "1. Ward 2. Hunter 3. Carter 4. Campbell 5. Graham 6. Jeanty 7. Membou 8. Walker" just isn't how it's going to go down. So I decided to tune out the media stuff until the eve of the draft and focus on going back to the tape, team needs and where the value pockets are for those needs. Because that's exactly what NFL decision-makers are doing right now.
I also think this exercise is a good example of why the 49ers really might go DL instead of OL, even though I think Banks (or another OL) would be a perfectly logical fit for them. But the OL is much more functional than the DL, at this time, and since the 49ers probably still see themselves as contenders, and since the DL need is more dire, I'm really starting to think that guys like Stewart/Mykel Williams/Harmon/Nolen will be the pick. And I really don't see Will Johnson being the guy, despite the need at CB also. The 49ers just really seem to prioritize the trenches, and last year the DL was uncharacteristically terrible. They used top 30's on Stewart, Williams, and Nolen. I think my final mock is going to have one of those three guys at 11, unless some strong intel comes out to change my mind.
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Really like this exercise. I especially like it because I couldn't possibly agree with you more that the Colts should take Shedeur Sanders if he's there at 14. Forget everything else. You have a horrific QB situation and Daniel Jones should be a backup. And AR can't throw the ball functionally. Sanders completes passes. You have to do that to have any shot of advancing in the playoffs. AR is the type that can get you a #7 seed because he may not turn the ball over, but you aren't going anywhere against good teams with good defenses if you can't complete passes to keep your offense on schedule.
But on the site here, the only QB's that Indy appears to have spent Top 30's on were Ewers and Shough. As I note on my mock about the Saints being highly unlikely to pick Sanders, teams just don't draft 1st Round QB's that they don't meet with. I'm stunned, frankly, that Ballard is staking his job on AR and Jones. And it's why he's going to get fired. And that means a new GM will likely want a new head coach, unless Irsay poaches someone from the Philly front office.