Open Rants by Ellis Zusel

(Note before reading: if you haven't read my open rant explaining what the QB Key Model is and how it works, do that first! Link: https://walterfootball.com/OpenRant/Published/1380)

2021 Draft Outlook

With the 2021 NFL draft just weeks away, the QB Key Model is more relevant than ever. Here is how the model ranks the top 5 QBs in this year’s class.

1. Trevor Lawrence: Passing Grade

As a quarterback who started for three years in the ACC and went 9-1 in his final season, Trevor Lawrence receives the winning, competition, and experience key. Nearly guaranteed to be drafted first overall, he also receives the first round talent key. With a PA / int ratio of 66.8, the final key Lawrence receives is key #7. This brings his total to five keys, yielding a passing grade. Lawrence is widely considered to be the best prospect in this year’s draft. The model’s evaluation of the Clemson QB is in line with this consensus.

2. Justin Fields: Passing Grade (if he sits for a year in the NFL)

Fields went 7-1 in his final season at Ohio State, granting him the winning and competition key. Fields also receives the experience key, as he has started two seasons at OSU. The only other key Fields definitively receives is the first round talent key, as he is projected to be taken in the first round. With a PA / int ratio of 37.5, Fields falls short of the threshold needed to receive that key. While Fields does have baseball experience, he was not drafted or offered a contract by an MLB team, so he does not receive that key. For now, Fields has four keys, one short of a passing grade. Fields can gain a 5th key, however, by sitting for one year in the NFL. Going off of mock drafts and insider news, it’s plausible that the 49ers will draft Fields with the 3rd pick and sit him behind Jimmy Garropolo for one year. This scenario would result in Field’s receiving a passing grade from the model.

3. Zach Wilson: Passing Grade (if he sits for a year in the NFL)

Zach Wilson’s situation is much similar to that of Fields. Wilson currently has four keys: winning, experience, first round talent, and PA / int ratio (his PA / int ratio was 112). Wilson did not play in a major conference, so he does not receive the competition key. He also does not have a baseball background, preventing him from receiving the MLB key. The only way Wilson can attain the five keys needed for a passing grade is by sitting for a year in the NFL. Assuming that he goes to the Jets with the 2nd pick, it’s more likely than not that the Jets will start him right away, which would result in a failing grade for Wilson. Because Fields is much more likely to sit for a year and reach five keys, he is rated higher than Zach Wilson.

4. Mac Jones: Failing Grade

Mac Jones currently has four keys: winning, competition, first round talent, and PA / int ratio (his ratio was 100.5). Although he can reach five keys by sitting out his first year in the NFL, this would not yield a passing grade, as Jones does not have the experience key. In order to receive a passing grade, a prospect must start for at least 2 college seasons, as no first round quarterback drafted since 1999 has had a successful career (as defined earlier) without doing so. For these reasons, Mac Jones receives a failing grade from the model.

5. Trey Lance: Failing Grade

Trey Lance also receives a failing grade for similar reasons. Even if Lance sits for a year, the maximum amount of keys he can receive is four, as he did not play in a major conference, only started for one season in college, and does not have a baseball background. Furthermore, without the experience key, Lance cannot receive a passing grade, as explained with Mac Jones. All in all, Lance does not have enough keys, yielding a failing grade.

2021 Conclusion

Looking overall at the grades for the 2021 class, the QB Key Model’s assessments seem reasonable. Out of the five quarterbacks, the model predicts that at least one (Lawrence) but no more than three will have passing careers. For reference, the 2018 NFL draft saw five QBs go in the first round (Mayfield, Darnold, Allen, Rosen, and Jackson). Three of these QBs (Mayfield, Allen, and Jackson) have succeeded with their respective teams, while Darnold and Rosen are considered by many to be busts. If five QBs are selected in the first round, it’s unlikely that more than three will be successful picks. The model projects that Lawrence will be a worthwhile pick, Lance and Jones will be busts, and Fields and Wilson will go either way based on if they sit out their first year in the NFL.