Open Rants by Semaj

Hello all. Like some of you, I am a DK fanatic. I fell in love with Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) about two years ago and have been playing ever since. I'm no expert, as I tend to generally break even on any given week. However, I have decided to make a goal. I am going to try and turn the $100 I started with into $1000. With only seven "real" weeks left in the NFL season it will be a little tough, but with a little bank roll discipline, it can definitely be done.

We will start off today by going over my cash Game Line Up from week 8. For those of you not familiar with the term, Cash Game refers to any contest on any DFS site where you need to beat roughly 50% of the field to cash. So we aren't talking about the giant contests you see advertised on commercials, no this is the grind portion of DFS. I will also give my takes on tournament plays in future write ups, but for now let's get into the Line Up review.

Keep in mind I in no way consider myself an expert of anything like that, these are just my views and takes based on what I see, hear and read.

QB:Aaron Rodgers $7800 (must play)

The Packers had turned into an extremely pass heavy team the past two weeks. So at home, against a Colts team devoid of defensive talent, an implied team total of right around 30, on top of his projected volume (you'll hear that word a lot) I figured Rodgers to have a floor of 24 pts. Considering Rodgers had been in on every TD the Pack have scored this year, going naked (playing a QB and not pairing him with a pass catcher) Rodgers let me soak up the entire GB offense. It was too good a spot to pass up, and I didn't mind paying up for the top priced QB on the slate.

RB: Ezekiel Elliot $7900 (must play)

Zeke is one of the few Game flow independent RB's in the league. I actually expected Cleveland to show up, which would've allowed Zeke to reach his full potential against the JV defense the Browns trot out each Sunday. I wasn't going to over think this spot, so I plugged in the prolific rookie and never looked back

RB: Charcandrick West $4400 (must play)

In cash games im never worried about ownership, just trying to make the most optimal line up. So you give me a RB projected to touch the ball 15-20 times at home as a big favorite against a bad run defense at just $4400 and I'll play him each time. Talent does play somewhat of a role when a player is in this spot, but we have seen West succeed in this system before. He was an easy fade in tournaments considering his somewhat questionable ceiling and through the roof ownership, but a lock for cash given all the reasons above.

WR: J Landry $7100 (must play)

I, like just about everyone else who pays attention to football, didn't think Jay Ajayi would continue his success in the ground game against the Jets 3rd ranked DVOA run defense. With that in mind I projected Miami to gravitate towards the pass in this match up, a match up Jarvis Landry had dominated the last two times out. I absolutely want to attack the Jets pass defense every week, so with Landry's low Adot (average depth of target) and volume, it made him an option I couldn't pass up

WR: Donte Moncrief $5800

Moncrief himself wasn't a must play, but I did want to get exposure to the Colts pass game in this spot. The Packers have been somewhat of a funnel defense themselves this year, and with a game total of 53, he was the cheapest way to get reliable exposure to the Colts pass game. Moncrief was cheap enough and had enough projected volume for me to feel comfortable with him in this spot.

WR: Michael Thomas $5500

I had Drew Brees as my top rated QB this week, above even Rodgers. The fact that the Saints could've easily had 5 rushing TDs in this game made me gravitate towards Rodgers in cash, but I still wanted to get exposure to Drew Brees.  Michael Thomas continues to be too cheap relative to his current role in the offense, and this game proved it. He had had 19 targets in the previous two games, and hasn't hit less than five in a game all year. Brees was going to be free to do what he pleased in this game, and at $5500 Thomas gave me a cheap way to get exposure to that. 

TE: Virgil Green $2600

The super chalk at TE this week was going to be Rudolph and Gates. I shied away from Rudolph because I wasn't sure how new offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur was going to call the game, and Minnesota's terrible tackle play made me question how Bradford would have enough time to find Rudolph and exploit the match up. As far as not playing Gates goes, I know the Chargers want to get Gates as many TD's as possible, and Gates is great at that, but I really didn't see how Gates had any more upside than Green in this spot. I saw the Broncos had realeased a TE earlier in the week, which told me Green would dominate the offensive snaps. He was playing the Raiders who are just about as bad at defending the TE as the Lions are, and I expected the Broncos to play well. It was only a difference if $400, but my inability to get off Rodgers, Zeke and Landry made that slight discount have all the difference in the world.

FLEX: Melvin Gordon $6300

This is the pick that carried my line up. I wasn't on him at the beginning of the week, and flipped flopped numerous times between D Booker, E Sanders and a GB receiver for my FLEX spot. In the end, I went with the monstrous volume Gordon was projected to have. He gets all of the work in the SD back field, at home as a 5 point favorite in a non divisional game created an ideal spot for Gordon. The Titans run defense is ranked near the top of DVOA, but if you look at the teams they've played none of them can actually run the ball. Gordon, like Zeke, is one of the rare game flow independent RBs in the league. Where he should be priced closer to Murray and Bell, instead we got him at $1500 cheaper and in an ideal spot. 

DST: Rams $2400

This was entirely thanks to Walt. For all the reasons he liked the Rams, he made me like their defense at just $2400. They were $1100 less than KC and it only cost me a two point difference. Like I said earlier the extra $1100 really opened up my roster.

There you have it. I was able to win 26/30 head to heads and cashed in all theee of my double ups. It will be a bit of a long road, but so far we're off to a good start in turning $100 into $1000.

ill do my best to keep up with this journey the rest of the year, but my work schedule makes it a little difficult. That being said, I hope you enjoyed my insight into my thought process. Thanks for reading!