Open Rants by Saopaulo

There are a few mock drafts, including Charlie Campbell's update today, that have Ohio State CB Marshon Lattimore to the 49ers with the second overall pick in the 2017 draft.  This is "Jed York rips off his face at a presser to reveal he is actually Betty White" level crazy.  If you want to make the case that a brain trust of Betty White and a TV personality in SF makes this pick, great.  But people are mocking Lattimore here as a legitimate selection based on his abilities and their need.  It's true that corner is a need on that team, but so is everything else.  Here is some historical context for selection of corners this early.

1. There isn't any.  That's right, Marshon Lattimore would be the highest drafted corner in the entire history of the NFL draft.  The only defensive back drafted as high as second overall was Eric Turner by the Browns back in 1991.  He was a safety out of UCLA and a solid player.  So this means that Marshon Lattimore is the best corner prospect in the history of the NFL draft!

2. Not only would second overall be very high for a corner, historically, selecting ANY corner even in the top 10 would be a big deal.  Here is the list of top 10 corners since 2006 (which I am selecting arbitrarily because it was the first year of the illegal contact rules changes, when corners instantly became more valuable), with the best corner from that draft listed as well:

2006: N/A; Antonio Cromartie (round 1 pick 19)

2007: N/A; Darelle Revis (round 1 pick 14)

2008: N/A; Aqib Talib (round 1 pick 20)

2009: N/A; Vontae Davis (round 1 pick 25)

2010: Joe Haden (7); Haden

2011: Patrick Peterson (5); Peterson

2012: Morris Claiborne (6) and Stephon Gilmore (10); Josh Norman (round 5)

2013: Dee Milliner (9); Xavier Rhodes (round 1 pick 25)

2014: Justin Gilbert (8); Malcolm Butler (undrafted)

2015: N/A; Marcus Peters (round 1 pick 18)

2016: Jalen Ramsey (5) and Eli Apple (10); Ramsey

3. As you can see from the list above, there are not a lot of corners selected so high in the draft.  Lattimore would be selected three spots higher than the two best players from this list (Peterson and Ramsey).  But you can also see from the list why teams don't draft corners so high: if they get hurt, they can't play.  Wide receivers can play hurt, because they have an inherent advantage over corners, who are reacting and must maintain elite athleticism.  Most linebackers can play hurt because they don't have as far to run, or have to change direction as quickly.  The only two positions where a player cannot play hurt at all (with remotely enough effectiveness to justify it over their backup) are QB (hand or shoulder injuries) and corner (especially lower half injuries, but also upper body as they are often making solo tackles).   Like it or not, teams want to draft a guy in the top ten who they are sure will play, even if he doesn't play very good (Eric Fisher, I'm looking at you).  If corner is one of the few positions where guys can't play hurt, most teams can't justify those selections unless the guy is a generational talent.

Milliner and Gilbert busted in part due to injury, and Claiborne was considered a bust until last season when he was healthy but still missed a handful of games.  Joe Haden's career is now on life support due to injuries the past two seasons.  Of the guys on this list, the most successful ones did not have injury red flags before the draft.

Which brings me specifically to Marshon Lattimore.  He started for one season at Ohio State because of injury.  And they were not one-off acute injuries like what his teammate Malik Hooker is recovering from.  He had such bad problems with his hamstrings that it required surgery.  That is pretty rare, and clearly a lingering condition.  Then he was injured at the combine, where it was first believed to be hamstring but he claimed it was a hip flexor.  Lattimore himself said the first question teams ask him about is his hamstrings.  

Look, I like Marshon Lattimore a lot as a prospect and have him graded as just outside of a top 10 player based on film alone.  I happen to like his teammate, Gareon Conley, better.  However, I'm sure I am in the minority on that.  But considering draft history and Lattimore's own injury history, wouldn't he need to be an overwhelming, sure-fire HOFer to justify being the highest drafted corner ever?  

There is no doubt that as the corner position has become more valuable, teams are more routinely willing to draft them in the top 10.  However, setting a new precedent should require a uniquely talented player, which in my opinion Lattimore is not.  Add his injury risk to the equation, and Lattimore as the second overall pick in the 2017 draft is the most improbable prediction in all the mock drafts I have seen.