Open Rants by JohnnyFire

It's been said approximately 9,342,771 times on the internet in regards to the NFL Draft this year, but it bears repeating: this is a very important NFL draft class for quarterbacks.

Way back in 1999, the NFL seemed to reach its pinnacle for quarterbacks, with 5 being selected in the first round (and, hell, all 5 quarterbacks flying off the board by pick number 12). Those 5 had wildly varying levels of success; Tim Couch was on the newly-expansioned Browns, who had no plan for his long term development, Donovan McNabb took the Eagles to the Super Bowl but was unable to enter the upper echelon at times, Aliki Smith was a concrete bust in Cincinnati, Daunte Culpepper's fantastic career arc was cut short by injury, and Cade McNown was a person who existed.

At the time it seemed absurd to think that many quarterbacks might go in the first round, but in 2017, we've since seen 4 separate instances where four quarterbacks were selected in the first round, and of those 4 (not including 2003), 3 of them saw 3 quarterbacks selected in the first 10 picks, the last instance of such happening in 2012 with Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III, and Ryan Tannehill.

In today's NFL climate, quarterback has become more important than ever, and more teams are desperately searching for their franchise quarterback then ever before. Just by eyeballing it, 5 teams have no answer at long-term QB options (CLE, BUF, NYJ, DEN, and ARI), another 6 are fielding a quarterback who could be considered near aged out of the league (NE, PIT, LAC, NO, NYG, and WAS), and an additional 4 teams who could arguably make an upgrade under center (MIA, JAC, BAL, and CIN). That's almost half the league, and giving no consideration even for teams who could just use a capable backup or commonly add to their QB room.

The point is, there's going to be moves to get quarterbacks in this draft. With at least 2 likely top-line quarterbacks available high (a group which will likely include, at the least, Sam Darnold and Josh Rosen), with anywhere from 1 to 4 others potential valued in the first round (between Baker Mayfield, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson and Mason Rudolph), there will be a viable arms race to obtain one and lap the other teams.

So let's break down the scenarios here, shall we?

Who Needs a QB High (in the top 10 picks)?

• Cleveland Browns - Um, duh. Even with the trade for Tyrod Taylor, the Browns have lacked general consistency in their quarterback room, and with a chance at a legitimate starter for the first time since...what, Vinnie Testaverde? While even Walter has suggested that the Browns can, in essence, hang back and get their guy, and even I discussed it in a prior Open Rant, Cleveland would be foolish to simply assume that they can just wait to get their guy at this point. Chicago traded up just one spot to take Mitch Trubisky, and (if you read the tea leaves from last year's rumor mill) its possible that Kansas City's trade to get to 10 for Pat Mahomes II was in order to block New Orleans and/or Cleveland from taking him in the next two slots. Point notwithstanding, with two picks in the top 4, Cleveland has two options: take their signal caller of choice at 1 and pray that they didn't kill the trade-up market for a few other teams so the BPA remains at 4, or pass on a QB at 1 and hope that their player of choice hangs around until 4. Either way, if they go the latter, the calls will be coming in to pass them. (Value Chart: 3000, 1800)
• New York Giants - Well, kind of. The issue that the Giants currently face is that Pat "We Battled Hard" Shurmur has all but conceded that the Giants will remain Eli Manning's team in 2018. Which is fine, but the Giants have nothing planned in the way of succession right now. Banking on finding their next quarterback option in 2019 is fine; just keep in mind that the 2019 free agency class is not exactly loaded at signal caller (barring the Falcons completely dropping the ball on Matt Ryan), and although the draft class won't necessarily be bad, it's looking a bit more spread as opposed to this top-heavy group. So it wouldn't surprise if New York stood pat at 2 and took their guy were he not Cleveland's. If so, it will be hard to pass them. (Value Chart: 2600)
• Denver Broncos - This is almost 100% dependent on if the Broncos believe Case Keenum is a long term answer, but if I can just argue to those reading this, do you? Keenum thus far has been a one year wonder for a very good Vikings team, so I don't think that John Elway wants to put all his eggs into that basket just yet. While it is certainly still conceivable that Denver opts to first draft on their abysmal OL (looking at Quenton Nelson, for example), the Broncos won't be writing off quarterback if there's one they particularly like, but there are 3 spots separating the Broncos from such; it's highly unlikely that there will be three trades up ahead of them to obtain quarterbacks, but Denver does not have the con at this pick, so lapping them will be a paramount move for any potential bidders. (Value Chart: 1700)
• New York Jets - Even with the addition of Teddy Bridgewater, the other Manhattan team is playing with fire given his injury history. Josh McCown can't be trusted with a spork at this point in his career. And although one might argue that the Jets need talent everywhere (see both the offensive and defensive lines), they are in a dire situation right from the drop given what the rest of the division may or may not be planning. The Jets are already behind the eight ball in a major way, so taking a quarterback will be key. But they hold very little control standing at pick 6; they may be relegated to their 4th best option if the three teams above alone do not favor any trades down. (Value Chart: 1600)

Who Needs a QB Elsewhere (not in the top 10 picks)?

• Miami Dolphins - I personally don't get why the rumor bill is turning on the Dolphins being enamored with one of this year's QB's. Ryan Tannehill, if back and healthy, is fine enough for now, and given the holes elsewhere (particularly now at guard and on the DL), they have plenty of incentive to invest elsewhere. Yet, we can't discount rumblings that they liked Sam Darnold or Baker Mayfield. Although they don't have a ton of capital, they do own two 4th rounders (worth 90 on the Value Chart) and could conceivably jump to 6 without much trouble given their 2nd rounder value (480). But it would be a stretch for them at a time where they probably don't need to stretch. (Value chart: 1250)
• Buffalo Bills - With Tyrod Taylor now gone and AJ McCarron having taken the bridge role, plus the trade of Cordy Glenn, the Bills are gearing up to make some kind of move. What that move is, I'm not sure, but in addition to their own two first round picks (at 12 and 22), they also own two second rounders and two third rounders (the value, together, is worth pick 16 in the draft at the least). The world is their oyster, if a team will have them, but they will carry one slight conceptual disadvantage; other teams are likely going to be offering future firsts, which Buffalo, given its current capital, almost certainly does not want to do. Buffalo can swing for the fences here but needs to be wary that another team doesn't make an even crazier move. (Value chart: 1200, 780)
• Arizona Cardinals - It's fairly obvious, given that Carson Palmer has retired, and given that they were only able to add Sam Bradford, who gets injured if you blow on him, and Mike Glennon, who is a giraffe in a human disguise, that the Cardinals are going to need a quarterback in this draft. Most of the rest of this team is in fairly good shape; David Johnson should be back to 100%, Larry Fitzgerald returns for one more go, and their secondary, even missing Tyrann Mathieu, is still quite solid. With a new head coach, Arizona might aim for an absolute slam dunk trade, and they might need it too; their only bonus capital is two third rounders, and given that their own pick lacks value in and of itself, the Cardinals will likely need to either make a trade involving future firsts, or sit back and settle for whoever is left at 15. (Value chart: 1050)

Who Wants to Trade Down in this Draft?

• New York Giants - I know it was already mentioned that this was a team that might be looking at a quarterback, but if the Eli-will-start rumors remain, and their top QB heads to Cleveland, then they control the remainder of the draft. They'll call pretty much any team to give them an offer that blows them away so they can amass draft capital ASAP, and will likely be the key to either the first or second QB in this class. (Value Chart: 2600)
• Indianapolis Colts - No, not for wanting a quarterback, but because they, must like the Giants, desperately need draft capital. Their pass rush sucks, their offensive line sucks, and that's before you even start to think about the lack of weapons that Andrew Luck (if healthy) is now saddled with. Indianpolis could use a big-time deal, and someone like Buffalo, who could offer 3+ picks in this year's draft alone, might be appealing. But we can't discount multiple deals or Indy looking for future firsts (Value Chart: 2200)

All of this in consideration, here are the most likely scenarios in my head as far as how the class might move.

1. Buffalo trades 1.12+1.22+a second rounder+future mid-round considerations to Indianapolis for 1.3. Although the Giants are likely to be looking for capital, Quenton Nelson or Saquon Barkley would immediately transform their team, and dropping halfway down the board would really, really hurt. Meanwhile, the Colts would be happy to grab an OL at 12 (say, Mike McGlinchey?) and a pass rusher at 22 (such as Marcus Davenport) to immediately reshape their team. The value lines up, and wouldn't require a massive overpay given Indy's need to retool immediately, and if New York stands pat, the Bills would receive either the first or second QB off the board, with a 75% chance that it would be their pick.

2. Buffalo trades 1.12+1.22+both second rounders+future mid-round considerations to New York for 1.2. This almost entirely depends upon what Cleveland would do, and what Buffalo felt the rest of the teams in need of a trade up would consider. For example, let's say Cleveland selects Barkley first overall. The only way for Buffalo to ensure their QB of choice would be to sell the barn here, and they'd need to lap Cleveland at 4, while also blocking any other team that wanted to make the move. If Cleveland selected a QB that moved the market (say, they selected Rosen, but Rosen wasn't considered the consensus top QB), Buffalo may begin to panic that they would lose their chance with the Colts and would have to jump to make it happen.

3. Buffalo trades 1.12+1.22+a second rounder to Cleveland for 1.4. If you're not getting the jist of this, I think Buffalo is going to trade up; almost everything indicates they're going to at this point. This scenario plays as follows; the Browns select a QB at 1; the Giants and Colts can't drum up a market because the Browns took the consensus top QB; and Buffalo just wants to lap Denver and New York to ensure they get at least a top two option. Cleveland can take the trade down and have plenty of options on both the DL and OL, and would be able to call on adding a 4th second rounder to potentially jump back into the first for a DB.

4. NY Jets trade 1.6+both second rounders to Indianapolis for 1.3. Although the bad blood is nowhere near as clear as it once was with the Jets and Giants in New York, I highly doubt the Giants want to have the distinction of giving the Jets their potential next franchise QB; as such, I don't think the Jets will be able to have the con on this trade, so New York will have to trade up with Indy. With 5 teams between them, just to get their choice of player, they have no control over the QB board in this draft and their only way to get something resembling their player of choice is to look to Indianapolis; and if that blocks Denver (and possibly Cleveland), so be it.

5. Arizona trades 1.15+both thirds+2019 1st to...someone. Arizona is in an absolutely abysmal position here. Every team that needs a QB in this draft with any immediacy is ahead of them, and unless they wish to be saddled with the last QB standing (or reach off board to grab a 6th QB, in what would be a justifiably bananas move), they're going to need to move a 2019 1st to do it. But to who? Cleveland at 4 may have the last viable QB option in play (say, Josh Allen) and already have their QB selected, but can they stomach another trade down? The Giants could use future resources, but do they want to drop that far? Indianapolis seems logical for this kind of move, but would they force Arizona to sweeten the deal? It's going to be interesting to watch.

We are facing scenarios (which are almost certainly not going to happen congruently) where something like this:

1.1 - Cleveland - Sam Danrold

1.2 - Buffalo (TRADE) - Josh Rosen

1.3 - NY Jets (TRADE) - Baker Mayfield

1.4 - Arizona (TRADE) - Josh Allen

1.5 - Denver - Lamar Jackson

is possible. Just know that it's almost guaranteed that it won't play out that way; beyond some teams likely willing to stick it out and wait, I'm betting that given the high end of non-QB talent in this class, players like Saquon Barkley, Quenton Nelson, Minkah Fitzpatrick, Tremaine Edumunds, Bradley Chubb, Derwin James, Denzel Ward and Joshua Jackson will shift the quarterback options down, and we'll see another year with no more than 3-4 quarterbacks selected in the first.

Still, we'd be wise to just need to brace for some insanity to happen on April 26th. Somebody's going to blink.

3/16/2018 - Open Rant - Who Can Move Up for a QB?
3/6/2018 - Open Rant - The Browns' Draft Catch-22
2/12/2018 - Johnny Manziel, Mental Health, and Forgiveness
7/25/2017 - Open Rant - LeBron is Going Nowhere, Pt. 2
7/19/2017 - Open Rant - LeBron Is Going Nowhere
6/21/2017 - Open Rant: Andrew Luck's Prime is Being Wasted
6/20/2017 - Open Rant: Dissecting the Cavs Post-Griffin
3/30/2017 - Open Rant: 2013 Re-Mock Draft, or, a Glutton for Punishment
2/21/2017 - Open Rant: Your Perfect QB Doesn't Exist
2/6/2017 - Open Rant: Brady Should Retire On Top