Open Rants by JMB

I love Todd Gurley. He might not be the most physically impressive guy in the NFL, but he gets the job done well. He is an impact player, and has been Mr. Reliable for the Rams for some time now. He deserved a big extension, and the Rams owed it to him. He's still young, too!

But this?

He signed a 4-year extension worth $60M with $45M guaranteed. This is, by far, the largest amount of guaranteed money for any running back in the history of the NFL.

This study right HERE involves the durability of certain positions, and how well teams do in their absence (WAR). University of Missouri, who conducted the study, published this in 2014 and only used the last 3 years of data. So, it's a little outdated and only has a 768 game sample sime, BUT they did find something very surprising, to me. Teams that had to play without the starting running back actually did (marginally) better. This could be due to better receiver play or blocking from the replacement in an offense that is more inclined to focus on the passing game, but that's not the point. The point is that these teams won a projected 0.14 (basically zero) more games playing their backup than they did with their starter. This isn't a significant number, until you compare it to other offensive positions. Teams missing a wide receiver lost a projected -4.75 games, teams without their tight end or fullback lost a projected -4.27 games, and teams without their main quarterback lost a projected -5.19 games.

The difference is huge and explains why the market for running backs is still so cheap, comparatively. It explains why GMs are constantly picked on for picking running backs early in the draft. It explains why the Steelers wouldn't dish it out for Le'Veon Bell. It also explains why I don't like this contract, despite my love of the man himself.

Thanks to the University of Missouri for conducting the study. Click the link above that says 'HERE' so you can read more about what they found throughout this study. It was a very interesting read, and should be enjoyable for those who like sports and statistics.