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cosmokramer21

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NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 12, 2019
cosmokramer21 • 1 Posts (3 ) •
5 years 0 month(s) ago
Came here to check if I was crazy to bet the Rams tonight. Good to see that some of you degenerates are on them just like my gut is telling me. My thoughts on the game: The Rams aren’t good and have been holding bad offenses to no points. The Ravens are good and should blow them because they are on fire. Upon further review the Ravens have blown out their last 4 opponents and are probably due for a stinker soon. But more importantly, Wade Phillips is really good at all things defense, and might have the game plan and the defense to crack Lamar Jackson (he's done it before against Brady/Cam in the post season, so why night the current MVP front runner?). The offense for the Rams is still an issue as the Ravens play pretty well against the run so I like their chances of shutting down Gurley and by extension Goff. BUT if it’s a low scoring defensive grinder game and the Rams run the ball well, (they've gotten better rushing the ball recently and might be able to do it against the Ravens), you take the points as the game should turn into a low scoring grinder affair. Because I'm scared to death of Lamar Jackson screwing all this up and the Ravens using this as their chance to showcase themselves to the world, I'm going to bet the following: 0.5 unit on LAR +3 1H (mediocre teams can usually only play around a half of football anyway) 0.5 unit on on Under 23.5 1H. And 0.25 unit on the parlay of the above two things. If I'm gonna lose, I want to lose quick so I can enjoy the rest of the game lol. GL everyone! May the gambling gods smile upon you.
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NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 2, 2019
cosmokramer21 • 1 Posts (3 ) •
5 years 3 month(s) ago

I’ve been betting on football for 7 short years.  When i first started I’d say this site was one of the main tools i used to teach myself how to handicap.  I’m saying this because I’ve never posted on this site before but reading Walt’s breakdown of the Packers - Vikes seemed completely lobsided with no actual analysis of how the Vikings might match up against packers.  He keeps comparing what the Vikings did to the Falcons and writing it off as the Falcons suck now, so nothing the Vikings did is that impressive.  I think when teams play well, the question going forward is can this level of success continue.  When it comes to MIN-GB the question we have to ask ourselves can the defensive lines of the Vikings get to Rodgers?  I think that answer is yes.  With that in mind, i think the Packers defensive line can also do the same to the Vikes offensive line.  This all translates  to a low scoring grinder game that seems 50-50 to me as to which team wins by a field goal.  Does that seem like its a pick of the month bet to anyone else?  Because i don’t think it is.  Having said all of this I am a Vikings fan so I’m biased, but my recommendation would be to stay away as I’m not sure if there’s a true edge on the football field.  I don’t root against peoples picks unless I’m going against them because we’re all just trying to beat the books, but this game seems like a pass to me as far as betting is concerned.  Was curious about anyone’s thoughts?

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NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 2, 2019
cosmokramer21 • 1 Posts (3 ) •
5 years 3 month(s) ago - hide

I’ve been betting on football for 7 short years.  When i first started I’d say this site was one of the main tools i used to teach myself how to handicap.  I’m saying this because I’ve never posted on this site before but reading Walt’s breakdown of the Packers - Vikes seemed completely lobsided with no actual analysis of how the Vikings might match up against packers.  He keeps comparing what the Vikings did to the Falcons and writing it off as the Falcons suck now, so nothing the Vikings did is that impressive.  I think when teams play well, the question going forward is can this level of success continue.  When it comes to MIN-GB the question we have to ask ourselves can the defensive lines of the Vikings get to Rodgers?  I think that answer is yes.  With that in mind, i think the Packers defensive line can also do the same to the Vikes offensive line.  This all translates  to a low scoring grinder game that seems 50-50 to me as to which team wins by a field goal.  Does that seem like its a pick of the month bet to anyone else?  Because i don’t think it is.  Having said all of this I am a Vikings fan so I’m biased, but my recommendation would be to stay away as I’m not sure if there’s a true edge on the football field.  I don’t root against peoples picks unless I’m going against them because we’re all just trying to beat the books, but this game seems like a pass to me as far as betting is concerned.  Was curious about anyone’s thoughts?

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time to sign • 630 Posts (473 ) •
5 years 3 month(s) ago
@chuckster just saw this response.... totals wise exactly what i was thinking 
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NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 2, 2019
cosmokramer21 • 1 Posts (3 ) •
5 years 3 month(s) ago - hide

I’ve been betting on football for 7 short years.  When i first started I’d say this site was one of the main tools i used to teach myself how to handicap.  I’m saying this because I’ve never posted on this site before but reading Walt’s breakdown of the Packers - Vikes seemed completely lobsided with no actual analysis of how the Vikings might match up against packers.  He keeps comparing what the Vikings did to the Falcons and writing it off as the Falcons suck now, so nothing the Vikings did is that impressive.  I think when teams play well, the question going forward is can this level of success continue.  When it comes to MIN-GB the question we have to ask ourselves can the defensive lines of the Vikings get to Rodgers?  I think that answer is yes.  With that in mind, i think the Packers defensive line can also do the same to the Vikes offensive line.  This all translates  to a low scoring grinder game that seems 50-50 to me as to which team wins by a field goal.  Does that seem like its a pick of the month bet to anyone else?  Because i don’t think it is.  Having said all of this I am a Vikings fan so I’m biased, but my recommendation would be to stay away as I’m not sure if there’s a true edge on the football field.  I don’t root against peoples picks unless I’m going against them because we’re all just trying to beat the books, but this game seems like a pass to me as far as betting is concerned.  Was curious about anyone’s thoughts?

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time to sign • 630 Posts (473 ) •
5 years 3 month(s) ago

@cosmokramer21 

You just gave a long breakdown, used the words "low scoring grinder game." And my question is: why haven't you looked at the game going 'under' the total? That is where your analysis led me.

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NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 2, 2019
cosmokramer21 • 1 Posts (3 ) •
5 years 3 month(s) ago - hide

I’ve been betting on football for 7 short years.  When i first started I’d say this site was one of the main tools i used to teach myself how to handicap.  I’m saying this because I’ve never posted on this site before but reading Walt’s breakdown of the Packers - Vikes seemed completely lobsided with no actual analysis of how the Vikings might match up against packers.  He keeps comparing what the Vikings did to the Falcons and writing it off as the Falcons suck now, so nothing the Vikings did is that impressive.  I think when teams play well, the question going forward is can this level of success continue.  When it comes to MIN-GB the question we have to ask ourselves can the defensive lines of the Vikings get to Rodgers?  I think that answer is yes.  With that in mind, i think the Packers defensive line can also do the same to the Vikes offensive line.  This all translates  to a low scoring grinder game that seems 50-50 to me as to which team wins by a field goal.  Does that seem like its a pick of the month bet to anyone else?  Because i don’t think it is.  Having said all of this I am a Vikings fan so I’m biased, but my recommendation would be to stay away as I’m not sure if there’s a true edge on the football field.  I don’t root against peoples picks unless I’m going against them because we’re all just trying to beat the books, but this game seems like a pass to me as far as betting is concerned.  Was curious about anyone’s thoughts?

5    0
chuckster • 361 Posts (316 ) •
5 years 3 month(s) ago
@cosmokramer21: Just finished losing a three paragraph response to your post...Argg.  Real short version: Liked your post.  However I am as well taking the Pack -3 +100 and closing a three team par for myself.  Two real good defenses (it seems so far,) give me the future hall of fame-er  at home all day long. I have the Pack from +4 to +7.5/8  MOV  in this game.  Last thing however:  Opinions/Bets are like sunrises/sunsets.....There are billions of them.......lol.  GL going forward man. Btw: I am also closing a 3 team 10 pointer with the UNDER in this game as well.
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