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FantasyFactor.com
2017 NFL Playoffs Divisional Round
Published at 1/13/2017
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Though all the home teams (and favorites) won and covered last week, DFS fantasy lineups were still very diverse.  This week again features an 8 team player pool with all but one game’s margin of victory expected to be decided by well less than a touchdown.  It’s draft day again at Fantasy Factor and time to decide who is roster-worthy. We've got contests for everyone:

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Seahawks @ Falcons:  This opening matchup will be played in the weather friendly confines of the Georgia Dome.  If the favorites win this week this will be the stadium’s last football game ever.  Atlanta scores points and their defense allows them, and with a total of 51 ½ points the bookmakers are expecting a shootout.  One could argue that Atlanta has the worst defense of the remaining playoff teams, and if one agrees with this premise look no further than Russell Wilson.  Though Wilson is one of the 4 priciest QBs ($7800 at fantasyfactor.com) his history of playing big time in the playoffs must be considered.  Atlanta allows touchdowns on 26% of their opponent’s possessions and will be without top cover guy Desmond Trufant, so a stack of Wilson and favorite target Doug Baldwin makes sense.   Last week’s star Thomas Rawls got a bit more expensive this week and may lose touches to CJ Prosise if he is healthy enough to play.  Though you never want to chase points, how good does Paul Richardson look?
With Earl Thomas out for the Seahawks front running MVP candidate Matt Ryan will have no fear taking plenty of deep shots.  Since Thomas went down Seattle has been the worst in the league at giving up big pass plays.  Also at $7800, is Ryan worth top dollar?  If the answer is “yes” then stack him with Julio Jones.  Don’t worry about Richard Sherman.  When these two teams met earlier in the year Jones had a big day with 7 catches for 139 yards and a touchdown.   If you are worried about Sherman shutting down Jones, don’t forget how valuable Taylor Gabriel has been as of late.  Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman are awfully expensive.  These two running backs who are much better in real football yet cancel each other out on the stat sheet.
 
Texans @ Patriots:  The Pats are 15 ½ point favorites in a game most people would think will get out of hand early.  If that is the case, it’s bad news for any Houston Texan player.  How can Brock Osweiler be considered on the road against a focused Patriot D?  After all, Brock pitched a shutout when Houston lost to the Pats and Jacoby Brissett 27 - 0 in week 3.  DeAndre Hopkins is finally looking like that uncoverable receiver he was all of last year, and maybe he can accumulate some garbage time points if this game gets lopsided.  Game script should not be kind to Lamar Miller.  If the Texans are forced to play catch up, putz coach Bill O’Brien will surely take is best offensive player out and replace Miller with Jonathan Grimes who curiously plays on passing downs now.  However, if you want to have a roster that’s no one else in your contest has: draft some Texans.
Game script could also be a negative against selecting Tom Brady.  At $6200, there are 5 more QBs that cost more, which is great value, but, if the Pats run up a big league they’ll likely start bludgeoning Texas with Blount.  250 yards and 2 TD’s seems like a reasonable floor for Brady.  Houston has a great defense but stopping the squirmy Julian Edelman is next to impossible.  He leads the league in targets and receptions since Gronk’s injury.   Brady likes Martellus Bennett around the end zone but $3500 Malcolm Mitchell is 2nd on the team in red zone targets.  If Mitchell can’t go because of his knee what about rejuvenated castoff Michael Floyd?  LeGarrette Blount is always a red zone threat and leads the league in 4th quarter carries.  He is reasonably priced at $5000, but his backfield mate Deon Lewis could be the early game / close game chain mover at a less expensive $3500.  New England’s defense is justifiably the most expensive D this week. 
 
Steelers @ Chiefs:  This game is expected to be this week’s most closely contested.  The Steelers opened as 1 point favorites and despite public action slightly in their favor the line has moved in the opposite direction.  That type of steam means that, right now, the smart money is on the Chiefs.  Last week we recommended Big Ben at home.  At $5800 he’s an incredible bargain except now he’s on the road and no one knows if he’s 100% healthy.   Justin Houston, the league’s best pass rusher, is just now getting his mojo back which could mean long day for Roethlisberger.  Antonio Brown’s home and road performances haven’t been as drastic as Big Ben’s and the Steelers move him around a great deal.  He will avoid Marcus Peters if the Steelers feel he should.  Along with team mate Brown LeVeon Bell is the most expensive player on this weeks’ board and since you can’t afford both these guys keep in mind Bell has the higher floor.  Many “experts” were touting Ladarius Green last week, but we warned you he was not likely to play.  It is looking just as doubtful this week.  If you want a Steeler tight end go for Jess James ($2500 at fantasyfactor.com)
Can you believe Alex Smith has a higher salary than both Brady and Roethlisberger? With 2 weeks to prepare, offensive mad scientist could manufacture early success for Smith versus a tough Steeler defense.  Other than Travis Kelce, the most expensive tight end on the market, just which of Smith’s weapons, if any, will be productive is a cloudy outlook. Tyreek the Freak Hill was starting to lose snaps and scrimmage touches in the week’s prior to his week 17 surge.  At running back Spencer Ware was once the man but a split with Charcadrick West will probably be the plan. 
 
Packers @ Chiefs: The hottest offense in football will be on display for the main event Sunday afternoon.  Last week Green Bay took 1 ½ quarter to figure out the Giant defense then put the pedal to the metal.  This week they get to play the Cowboys’ defense that on paper doesn’t scare anyone.  Aaron Rogers is the priciest QB at the Fantasy Factor market place (along with his counterpart, Matt Ryan and Russell Wilson).  Let’s face it though, all the Packers do is pass, so a monster game from Rodgers is very likely.  With Jordy Nelson unlikely to play Davante Adams and Randall Cobb will see an uptick in targets.  The same will be true of Jared Cook.  At $3600 it might be Ty Montgomery’s turn to contribute again, but he seems to be looking over his shoulder at Christine Michael.  One other caveat on all Packers: Cowboys could have the ball for 36+ minutes, so Rodgers and gang might not have enough plays to make hay.
So far a majority of money is coming in on Green Bay who opened up as a 4 point underdog.  Curiously, the line is moved slightly the other way.  It would appear therefore that sharp bettors are confident in Dak Prescott, the rookie, making his first playoff start.  He’s had two weeks to think about what’s at stake though.  Could this waiting period rattle this normally cool customer?  One guy who likes the spotlight is Dez Bryant, while a sneaky pick could be the clutch 3rd down converter Cole Beasley.  ($3500).  Ezekiel Elliott, after 322 carries this year, should be fresh after the team’s bye.  This is the highest total on the board and should be an entertaining high scoring affair.


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