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FantasyFactor.com
Wild Card Weekend
Published at 1/7/2017
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Raiders @ Texans: In the battle of the backups you really have to feel bad for the Raiders and their loyal fans. With their destiny in their own hands to grab the 2nd seed, Derek Carr their rising star, breaks his leg then they lose their backup. As everyone by now knows, rookie 3rd stringer Connor Cook will get the start. With so few practice reps, Cook has admitted to not having rehearsed some of the plays Oakland was running last week. It’s hard to say if a full week of practice and 1st string reps will be enough for Cook to make some throws that will sustain drives and put points on the board. It’s not hard to say that an acceptable fantasy output would be near impossible against a very good Houston defense. Jack Del Rio has stated they need to get Latavius Murray the ball more. Fantasy Factor has attached Murray to a very tempting salary of $3500, but the Texans run D has been tops in the league over the last 9 weeks. 
Brock Osweiler will get the start for Houston. Although Texans’ coach O’Brien would have gladly accepted an AFC South championship with Brock as their starting QB in the playoffs if this scenario was offered at the beginning of the season, the way this scenario unfolded was not something he would have hoped for. Osweiler was benched for poor play and takes the reins as a backup to injured savior Tom Savage. Despite having some weapons in the passing game, including DeAndre Hopkins and CJ Fiedorowicz, Osweiler has only given his owner 20 fantasy points once this season. Hopkins just posted his 1st 100 yard game of the season last week, mostly with Brock. Don’t forget, Osweiler loves to check down to his tight end. Coming back from a 2 week ankle injury lay off, Lamar Miller is worth considering at running back, though he’s been mostly disappointing all year.

Lions @ Seahawks: The Lions must feel as dejected as the Raiders after they too let a division title slip away. Unlike the Raiders, the Lions have no excuse for their collapse. On the bright side however, they still have their starting QB. Stafford is indeed the starter, and talented. Unfortunately, he’s been disappointing down the stretch and now faces a Seahawks defense that has allowed 5 passing TD’s in their last 4 playoff games. When selecting a QB for your weekly roster, you’d like that QB’s floor to include 2 TD passes. Stafford’s performances and matchup are not supportive of that floor. Two Lions that are hot, though, are Golden Tate and Zack Zenner. In the last 11 weeks Tate is 3rd over that time period in receiving yards, while Zenner is playing all 3 downs plus goal line for the Lions and putting up solid numbers.
Seattle certainly didn’t expect to be playing wild card weekend. So they are probably disappointed also that they don’t have a bye. It is not news that the Seattle offensive line has been performing in all phases like a bargain basement unit they are paid to be. Their lack of potency is killing the running game and forcing Russell Wilson to get rid of the ball too soon. Wilson has certainly been better lately, is better at home, and seems to always step up his game in the playoffs. For these credentials you will have to pay since Wilson is tied for the most expensive QB on the board this weekend ($7800 at fantasyfactor.com). As stated the Seahawks line hasn’t been opening up holes and Thomas Rawls hasn’t been hitting them but he’s cheap and doesn’t have anyone to share what usually is a heavy work load. Jimmy Graham is surprisingly 4th in salary demand for this weeks’ TE’s and the Lions are easy going on that position. Doug Baldwin spends ¾ of his time in the slot and should avoid Darrius Slay.
It should be interesting in Seattle on Saturday night!

Dolphins @ Steelers: When these two teams met back in October Miami took the Steelers to the woodshed. Jay Ajayi rushed for 200 yards yards and the Dolphins’ defense roughed up big Ben. Rothlisberger had to get knee surgery and missed the subsequent two games. Things may be different in this matchup. For one, Jay Ajayi doesn’t have Mike Pouncey to follow up the middle, and secondly, Matt Moore is now the Dolphins’ starting QB. Moore has been better both in real life and fantasy than Tannehill but his fantasy point production is touchdown dependent. Unfortunately, the Steeler defense is 4th in the league in touchdown pass efficiency. Also, Miami wants to run the ball. The Dolphins’ likely game plan is great news for Jay Ajayi. On the other hand the Fins are this weekend’s biggest underdog so game script might take away Ajayi’s touches and snaps if they fall too far behind. Jarvis Landry will get his catches and decent yardage regardless of game script. He has a high floor. Matt More loves Kenny Stills and looks for TE Dion Sims around inside the 10.
The other difference in this playoff game versus these teams’ week 6 meeting is that the Steelers are home. The disparity between Ben Rothlisberger’s home and away performances are Drew Breesesque. This year he has averaged 320+ yards a game, completed 70% of his passes and thrown for 20 TDs (and he missed a home game). The Dolphins pass defense has been atrocious as of late. They even made Bryce Petty look decent. All this is great news for the two guys big Ben loves to throw to, Antonio Brown and LeVeon Bell. Nothing more needs to be written about these two real life and fantasy studs except they will cost you. Lots of “fantasy experts” are touting Ladarius Green, and though he’s practicing and looking fine he is still in the League’s concussion protocol. Steelers’ defense gets sacks and creates turnovers and are likely to be a popular defensive choice this weekend. 

Giants @ Packers: This week’s main event features an elite yet improving offense going up against an elite yet improving defense. These teams met in early October in a close contest in which the Giants settled for too many field goals in their loss. Currently, the Packers secondary seems to be down to third stringers and practice squad players. Can Eli Manning step up his game against this vulnerable group? At a fire sale price of $5500 Manning is a contrarian pick with high upside. In order to step up he will need to get the ball to Odell Beckham, a receiver no one man can cover. The Packers will be forced to send help to cover Beckham, leaving another sneaky pick, Sterling Shepherd, one on one. In this first meeting the Giants could absolutely not run the football. Recently however, rookie Paul Perkins has been gaining trust and touches. Can he continue this upswing in usage, production? Maybe some goal line touches for your best running back might take care of that “settling for field goal problem” coach.
In the first meeting the Giant defense forced Rodgers and the Packers to 4 consecutive three and outs at one point of that game. To put it simply: this is not a good matchup for Rodgers, though he maybe matchup proof. Because the Giants’ secondary is so good, it’s even a worse matchup for Rodgers’ weapons. The Giants’ corners and safeties can cover. One area where the Giants are not as great is in the slot, and Randal Cobb looks like he’s healthy and ready to go on Sunday. He had 9 catches for 108 yards when these teams met almost a different season ago. As stated, inside is where the Giants are vulnerable in pass defense, and ‘the Cook” is starting to mix well with Rodgers. Snacks Harrison will like eat up hybrid RB Ty Montgomery. 


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