Open Rants by FantasyFactor.com

With only 4 NFL rosters comprising this week’s player pool, finding a unique yet efficient roster becomes difficult.  There is expected to be, however, plenty of points to go around.  The Packers Falcons game boasts a monstrous 60 point total, while the over under in the Steeler Patriot game is a robust 50.  Based on these predictions, it would be reasonable to guestimate about 14 touchdowns and 1400 -1500 yards will be compiled by the draftable player pool.  While it will be imperative to draft the high price studs to keep pace with the competition in your public or private contest, the contest winners will likely be those owners that can uncover the sleepers or role players who step up to make a significant contribution.  Since every day is draft day at Fantasy Factor why not start up a private contest with your league buddies? Everyone will be watching these two Sunday games anyway so the winner gets beer money.  Let’s look at the games.  There are also several guaranteed public contests.

Packers @ Falcons:  With one of the highest totals (60/61) ever in a playoff game one must be surprised that this isn’t the prime time matchup.  The spread on the game initially opened with the Falcons as a 4 point favorite but the line crept up despite the fact that the Packers are a public dog.  The reason for this main stream bias is none other than the red hot Aaron Rodgers.  Rodgers and his counter-part are understandably the two most expensive QB’s this week.  Besides the fact that Rodgers is facing a bad defense, the Packers simply are a pass first offense, even at the goal line.  Rodgers needs to have a big day.  He knows it and his coach knows it.  The biggest question mark for the Packers is the reality that their two best wide outs are hurt.  Jordy Nelson is not expected to play and Davonte Adams is a game time decision.  Even if Adams plays, his snap count is likely to be on a strict pitch count.  As we all know, Rodgers can make every receiver look good, so the Packers just might be the team where the aforementioned sleeper wakes up.  At $4300 fantasyfactor.com says Geronimo Alison is the favorite to be this step up guy over Jeff Janis and Trevor Davis (both $3500).  Alison, however, might also be a game time decision.  Although the Packers have resigned themselves to putting the ball in Rodgers hands, their depletion at receiver should mean more work for hybrid Ty Montgomery.  Montgomery should get plenty of work regardless of the game script.  His drawback is he’s no sure thing around the goal line.  Randall Cobb and Jared Cook will of course be Aaron Rodgers’ most trusted targets among his receiving mash unit.

Matt Ryan won’t be having the same doubts about his weapons that Aaron Rodgers might lose sleep over.  While Ryan has stronger support from his running game, he, like Rodgers spreads the ball all over.  Many “experts” have been pointing out that his favorite target has not been practicing this week because of his toe injury.  Despite this cautionary talk, expect the elite Julio Jones to play through the pain and leave it all on the field in order to get to the Superbowl.   The Packers secondary is decimated, and while they’ll have fits covering Jones, every other pass catcher on the Falcons should have an easy time.  These potential contributors include Mohamad Sanu, Taylor Gabriel, and Justin Hardy.  What should be the deciding factor in this matchup is the fact that the Falcons are not one dimensional.  The Falcons might need 5 TD’s to get past the Packers, and it shouldn’t be a surprise if Devonta scoops 2 of those scores.  Though Freeman is a touchdown machine, the reality that should give one pause in paying his LeVeon Bellesque salary is that his equally talented running mate Tevin Coleman gets a lot of snaps and touches.  80 scrimmage yards and 4 or five catches would be a reasonable expectation for Coleman. 

With a 60 point total, neither of these Ds are going to get you points for keeping their opponent under 20, but maybe they can get a few sacks or a turnover.  Bear in mind the Falcons are second to the Pats NFL-wise in not allowing big plays.

Steelers @ Patriots:  These are two more well-rounded teams than the ones playing in the opener, meaning these two defenses can actually dictate some three and outs.  At 50 or 51 (depending on where you look) the betting markets are still predicting a high scoring affair in spite of Pittsburgh and New England’s defensive prowess.  Big Ben Roethlisberger is the cheapest of the 4 field marshals leading their troops on championship week, but he is going against a defense that has let up the fewest points in the league.  In Big Ben’s favor however, besides Russell Wilson, who smoked New England’s D, the Pats haven’t faced a quarterback anywhere near the caliber of Roethlisberger.   Big Ben’s supporting cast is a bit more “supportive” than his counterpart.  He should target early and often Antonio Brown and LeVeon Bell, the most expensive and highest scoring fantasy players in the pool.  Normally Pats’ HC, a guy named Belichick, likes to take away his opponent’s, go to guy.  “Touches-wise” this figures to be Bell.  This goal, however, may be impossible, but it is something to consider if you want to pony up $9200 for Bell.  Lack of a third go to guy might be the Steelers undoing.  If they find their under the radar hero, Sleeper of the Week candidates are Eli Rodgers and Jesse James.  It’s an awful week to choose a defense, total crap shoot.  One should consider that the Steelers pass rush has come on of late and Brady threw two picks under pressure last week.

The Patriots are a quarterback driven team, and other than Julian Edelman, it’s hard to predict where Tom Brady will distribute the ball.  His receiving corps is banged up too.  Nevertheless, Brady’s expected output should be similar to last weeks: 260 yards 2 TDs and a pick under pressure.  Normally one should be a big fan of Chris Hogan, but he’s hurt and not practicing.  One secret sleeper could be Martellus Bennett, who played the most snaps last week among the remaining tight ends.  It would behoove one to monitor Hogan and Malcolm Mitchell’s status.  If they can’t go, Michael Floyd is the Sleeper of the Week.  Belichick’s game plan is always shrouded in mystery.  This secrecy, especially manifests itself in his method of attack on the ground.  Will he spread the Steelers out?  If the Pats go spread then Dion Lewis should star like last week.  Will he go big? If it’s two tight ends then LaGarrette Blount will be the play.  Lewis causes such matchup problems however, it’s a 3-1 chance that he will be the man.  Taking the hot hand theory into consideration, Blount is still a very capable contrarian play.  The Patriot defense, playing at home, is the D you want, but it’s 50% more expensive than the other defenses and may not be affordable.

Enjoy Championship weekend and stay tuned next week when Fantasy Factor will launch a Super Bowl Squares Promotion with over $1000 in Cash and Prizes! Visit www.fantasyfactor.com now to sign up and participate in the action!