Open Rants by Bawambi


Turning the floor over to the Users. Whatever is on your mind. Free form blogging, ranting, raving, hating, etc.

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Bawambi
200 Club First Bummer w Draft Kings
Published at 8/31/2021
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The start of these articles was a betting strategy I developed the first time I jettisoned FanDuel.  I reasoned out a strategy that I didn't have to pick as well at +200 rather than the usual -110.  I made money on paper with the strategy and the best way to make money at this is early season college and NFL or overhyped teams (Dallas Cowboys, my Ohio State Buckeyes for examples).  The book can inflate spreads with these kind of public teams but in certain scenarios the opposite might be true.   Example - Alabama spreads usually don't exceed 40+ but the talent difference might be 60.  That is where you can move the spread or the total to your advantage.  You usually have to sell a TD to get to +200 but that could be a wrong team favorite of 3.5 switch that to -3.5 and you will generally get the +200.  However, the bummer is I don't have that option with Draft Kings so I will not do as many CFB and NFL game previews as a result. 

One example from this week:  At first look how the hell is Tennessee favored by 35 over anybody?   Bowling Green is a dumpster fire of a program - think U Conn bad.  I took a look at this game to perhaps only take 28 but probably would've taken 68 as the over (61 currently) after looking at the game harder.

Rutgers is a team I made money on last year.  Schiano will not get as easy spreads to beat in year two.  14 is probably close to the mark against Temple.

Speaking of my Buckeyes we should beat Minnesota handily but in all of these games I would play the first half line instead and perhaps add the TD to those lines if your book lets you.

So I have to rate Draft Kings 9 of 10 due to the slight bummer but if I notice a line during the season that is very shady I will write one up even though I won't be able to take advantage of it.



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