WalterFootball.com: 2008 NFL Mock Draft

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Last update: Saturday, April 26, 2008. Finishing touches for all seven rounds.
Next update: If any news breaks, this will be updated. I'll have a RE-DRAFT (Rounds 3-7) posted for Day 2 by Sunday morning.

This NFL Draft order is based on the 2008 NFL Draft Order and 2008 Draft Prospect Rankings.

Miami Dolphins: Jake Long, OT, Michigan
The Miami Dolphins and Jake Long have agreed to a 5-year, $57.75 million contract with $30 million guaranteed. In the words of Emmitt Smith, "my 2008 mock draft got debacled." In case you missed it, you can access my Emmitt Smith NFL Mock Draft here.

Does the Contract Make Sense? I recently said "It makes no sense for Long to take this deal." There were reports indicating Miami offered Long less money than the Raiders gave JaMarcus Russell in 2007. While the reports were essentially true (Russell received $61 million), they were misleading because Long's term (five years) is shorter than Russell's (six years). So, it actually does make sense. If Long becomes at least a decent tackle, he benefits because he hits free agency a year earlier than Russell. The only way he loses out is if he's a bust (via lack of talent or injury), which is unlikely.

Does the Pick Make Sense? I wouldn't have made this move. In my eyes, Long projects as a great right tackle but only a mediocre left tackle. He's not nearly as athletic as Joe Thomas, and I could see him having problems keeping the quicker right ends out of the backfield. I know he surrendered only two sacks at Michigan, but the Big Ten doesn't exactly have incredible defensive speed; he didn't even have to battle Cliff Avril against Purdue.

So, he'll struggle a bit at left tackle and play great on the right side. What's so wrong with that? Well, the right tackle position isn't exactly one you use a No. 1 overall pick on. If the Dolphins wanted a right tackle so badly, they could have obtained Carl Nicks, Anthony Collins or Duane Brown in Round 2. Unless they trade up for Quentin Groves, which is a possibility, they won't be able to land a premier 3-4 pass rusher (I'll be shocked if Groves makes it past the 49ers.) It seems like the Dolphins are once again doomed to struggle defensively with archaic personnel, who were responsible for the team's 30th ranking in that department. Miami's ancient defense was one of the many reasons why I projected them to go 2-14 in my 2007 Season Previews. It appears as though I'm going to have to issue a similar projection in a few months.

Who am I to question Bill Parcells though? The Tuna's been in the league for decades. He's made such great picks over the years, like Bobby Carpenter, Anthony Fasano, Jason Hatcher and Skyler Green in the first four rounds of the 2006 Draft, and Jacob Rogers with a second-rounder in 2004. There are some who speculate that Parcells is simply trying to make up for passing on Orlando Pace in 1997. I could be mistaken, but Jake Long is no Orlando Pace.

Recap: I'm glad the Dolphins finally settled on a guy and stopped playing head games with everyone. I don't like the pick, but I hope it works out for them because I hate to see such a great NFL franchise be down in the dumps for so long.

And no sour grapes either - I got the pick wrong, and that's fine. I just don't agree with the selection. I could be wrong - I'm always the first to say that predicting how well prospects translate to the next level is close to impossible (everyone thought Ryan Leaf was going to be on par with Peyton Manning.) I know Dolphins fans as a whole are thrilled with the Long signing. I just hope they feel the same way two years from now.
St. Louis Rams: Chris Long, DE, Virginia
Live 2008 NFL Draft Blog - I'll be posting my thoughts about the NFL Draft here. That will include everything from the actual picks, to the ESPN personalities, to the commercials, etc. Anything goes. Emmitt Smith may even show up! This page will be updated every five minutes or so, so I hope you join me for the 2008 NFL Draft!

Friday Afternoon Update: Per Rotoworld, the Rams are going to vote on the No. 2 pick. Reportedly, VP of personnel Bill Devaney covets Chris Long, while the majority of the defensive staff wants Glenn Dorsey. We know one thing for sure. Based on their recent draft history, St. Louis will probably make the wrong decision. Seriously, how can you vote on a pick? This is ridiculous. And people wonder why I made the Rams 31st in my Pre-Draft Power Rankings.

Friday Afternoon Update No. 2: Per John Clayton, the Rams and Falcons are negotiating a deal where they would swap the second and third picks in the draft. Nothing will be announced, however, until Saturday morning. This would make sense for both squads; Atlanta would have to surrender a third-round selection and potentially another choice on Sunday afternoon.

Friday Evening Update: For what it's worth, both Adam Schefter and Mike Mayock believe Chris Long will be the pick.

Back to the Mock: I've had Vernon Gholston up here for a while, but only because Chris Long was off the board. With Jake Long inking a deal with Miami, it's now down to Chris Long and Glenn Dorsey.

It's impossible to tell what the Rams will do because their drafts have been terrible over the years and they really don't seem to know what they're doing. There's a reason they're 17-31 since 2004. It's too early to figure if any of their 2007 selections are busts (though Adam Carriker didn't have a great year; Brian Leonard averaged only 3.5 yards per carry in Steven Jackson's absence; and Jonathan Wade and Dustin Frye really struggled), but just check out all the underachievers they've drafted in the first three rounds in 2005 and 2006: Tye Hill, Joe Klopfenstein, Claude Wroten, Jon Alston, Dominique Byrd, Alex Barron and Ronald Bartell. Terrible.

In addition to St. Louis whiffing so many times, the franchise excels at throwing out smokescreens. Though he's the best NFL scoop reporter out there, Adam Scheffter doesn't carry much weight in stating that the Rams are interested in Dorsey. They were also reportedly extremely interested in Ted Ginn and Jay Cutler the past two years as well.

So, it's hard to tell what the Rams WILL do, but I'll write why they SHOULD select Long or Gholston over Dorsey.

1. Goodbye, 3-4: For those unfamiliar with the Rams, they ran 3-4 looks often in November and December, and were quite successful with the scheme. In fact, defensive coordinator Jim Haslett was quoted as saying that he wants to run the 3-4 on a full-time basis. Well, if St. Louis drafts Dorsey, the 3-4 will no longer be an option. Dorsey is an even worse fit in the 3-4 than Jake Long is at left tackle. If these teams atop the draft want to keep adding players who don't fit what they're looking for, they can have fun spending numerous top-five selections over the next decade.

2. No Defensive Ends: The Rams have nothing at defensive end. James Hall and Leonard Little combined for FOUR sacks last year. Little, 34, is coming off surgery, while Hall was cut and no one showed interest in him.

If the Rams move Carriker back to defensive end, they'll look like fools. They asked Carriker to balloon up to 310 last year. Now, they're going to ask him to drop 20-25 pounds despite coming off shoulder surgery? Sounds like a lawsuit waiting to happen.

St. Louis could use a bit of help at defensive tackle, but the position is fine for now. Carriker, La'Roi Glover and Clifton Ryan (whom St. Louis is high on) are much better than Little, Hall and Victor Adeyanju.

3. Injury Risk: If I'm an NFL general manager, there is absolutely no way I'm taking Dorsey in the top five (though it'll happen.) I'm not drafting the next Courtney Brown. Sure, Dorsey checked out, but don't most players before the draft? Dorsey has played hurt for the last two years and there is some indication that there are other injuries we don't even know about. A 290-pound tackle with a suspect lower body? Any general manager who takes someone like that in the top five is just asking to be fired.

Look, I hope I'm wrong - I would love to see Dorsey succeed in the NFL. I loved him at LSU, and I think he's an amazing talent. He's just too much of a risk to be chosen over someone who fits what the Rams need to a tee. Recap: It looks like a two-horse race between Long and Dorsey. I've presented why choosing Dorsey would be a terrible move on the Rams' part. I guess I should have made this pick Dorsey because as I wrote earlier, the Rams are simply clueless when it comes to the draft.
Atlanta Falcons: Glenn Dorsey, DT, LSU
Friday Evening Update: For what it's worth, both Adam Schefter and Mike Mayock believe Matt Ryan will be the pick.

Back to the Mock: I've been harping about the Falcons weighing three options at this pick. With Jake Long off the board, it's now down to two. Let's look at both of them:

Will Atlanta draft Matt Ryan? Only if Option No. 2 is off the board. Mike Mayock, Matt Ryan's ultimate backer, doesn't even have him going to the Falcons anymore. That in itself should be a clear sign that Atlanta is looking at other possibilities with this selection.

In the wake of Chad Henne, Joe Flacco and several other quarterbacks looking solid in the Senior Bowl and Combine, Atlanta could be targeting one of them in the second round. And if someone like Brian Brohm slips - which is a possibility - the Falcons can trade some of its second-round picks to trade with a team like the Chargers, who have just one selection in the first four rounds.

We've also seen teams eschew quarterbacks recently. The Browns drafted Joe Thomas instead of Brady Quinn. The Dolphins also passed on Quinn in favor of Ted Ginn. In prior years, Ben Roethlisberger and Aaron Rodgers both slipped. I don't think Ryan goes here. And if he does, imagine how much he'll struggle without any talent around him. Think David Carr in Houston, Tim Couch in Cleveland, etc. If you have no pieces to put around a signal caller, I don't think you can draft one unless it's someone with Peyton Manning-like talent. Call me crazy, but Ryan is not Peyton Manning.

Will Atlanta draft Glenn Dorsey? Yes. The only way Atlanta won't take Dorsey is if the Rams pluck him with the second pick. Offensive and defensive tackle are both positions of need, but the Falcons spent some money this offseason addressing the latter.

As I mentioned in my Rams write-up, I wouldn't use a top-five pick on Dorsey. But it's no secret that the Falcons are in love with him. For their sake, I hope Dorsey's knees and back hold up for more than three years.
Oakland Raiders: Darren McFadden, RB, Arkansas
I'm aware the Raiders just re-signed Justin Fargas, but we all know what Al Davis loves to do (besides drink goat blood, sleep during the day to avoid sunlight, and sign crappy free agents coming off ACL injuries.) He drafts speed and the flashiest player available. Darren McFadden seems to fit both categories. I'm pretty confident in predicting that Al Davis called in Lane Kiffin to change his adult diaper in the wake of seeing McFadden blow everyone away with his 4.27 at the combine.

I'm not sure if adding another running back - albeit a very talented one - to the roster is the greatest idea in the world, but I'm predicting what the Raiders are going to do; not what'll be best for them.

Vernon Gholston now being available here changes things a bit. Al Davis could be intrigued by his combine and Pro Day numbers (4.58 40, 42-inch vertical, 10-5 broad jump, 37 bench press reps), but where would Gholston play? Neither Gholston nor Derrick Burgess can play left end. Would they rotate at right end? Doesn't sound all that smart, but neither was signing a receiver with chronic knee injuries to a $55 million deal.
Kansas City Chiefs: Sedrick Ellis, DT, USC
What the Chiefs do here completely depends on what the Rams do at No. 2. St. Louis has a choice between Chris Long and Glenn Dorsey. I'll explain why the team's decision impacts Kansas City.

If the Rams Draft Glenn Dorsey... The Falcons will take Sedrick Ellis third overall. The Raiders, meanwhile, will go with Darren McFadden, leaving the Chiefs with their choice of Chris Long, Vernon Gholston, Matt Ryan, Branden Albert and Ryan Clady. For reasons I'll list below, I'm eliminating the latter three. Kansas City would probably select the defensive end it prefers most, which in all likelihood, would be Howie Long's son.

If the Rams Draft Chris Long... Atlanta would pick Dorsey at No. 3, and the Raiders would still choose McFadden. That would leave Kansas City with Ellis, Gholston, Ryan, Albert and Clady. I would think the Chiefs would go with Ellis over Gholston. First of all, Ellis is regarded as a slightly better prospect. Second, if Kansas City were to take Gholston, what would they do at 17? There won't be any decent defensive tackles worth taking there. All the offensive tackles would be long gone. They'd be stuck with a corner. On the other hand, if Ellis is the selection, Phillip Merling would be a serious option at 17. The Chiefs could also move up a few slots for Derrick Harvey.

What About Ryan Clady and Branden Albert? Albert makes more sense than Clady; his stock is higher than Clady's, and his ability to play almost every position on the front, including left tackle, has to be intriguing to the Chiefs, who need help everywhere. If I were running Kansas City's front office and I couldn't trade down, I would probably choose Albert over Ellis, just based on the team's immense need for offensive linemen. That said, I think it's a bit too early to take either guy.

But who's to say general manager Carl Peterson is going to do the right thing? We've seen Peterson screw up draft after draft. In fact, from all of the Chiefs' drafts from 2000 to 2005, there are currently only six players on the roster (thanks to forum poster titan_qb_3 for pointing out that embarrassing stat).

What About Matt Ryan? You never know what stunt Peterson is going to pull, but I don't think Ryan's a top-five prospect. I heard about the Chiefs sending 64,000 people to his Pro Day. Think about this though - if Kansas City was really that interested in him, why would it make it so public? Remember, the Broncos drafted Jay Cutler without even interviewing him. GMs and coaches are so paranoid, if you hear them say one thing, you generally should believe the opposite.
New York Jets: Vernon Gholston, DE/OLB, Ohio State
Before I move on, I'd like to let you know that my 2008 NFL Free Agents List is updated daily to match whatever's going on in free agency.

Miami's decision to sign Jake Long should have all Jets fans thrilled; Darren McFadden, Chris Long or Vernon Gholston will probably be available at No. 6. In this mock, it's the latter. It should be interesting to see Gholston and Jake Long battle each other for years to come.

I know the Jets just signed Calvin Pace, but they still need help at the 3-4 rush linebacker position, as Bryan Thomas, currently slated to start across from Pace, had just three sacks in 2007. And I'm not all to crazy about Pace either; he's never had more than six sacks in a season.

By the way, if Gholston, Long and McFadden are all off the board somehow, I still stand by my previous selection of Leodis McKelvin.
New England Patriots: Branden Albert, G/OT, Virginia
Friday Afternoon Update: Adam Schefter reported on WEEI this morning that the Patriots are deciding between Keith Rivers and Brandon Albert. Rivers probably makes more sense, but picking him would go against Bill Belichick's MO. We'll see if he bucks his own trend on Saturday afternoon.

Back to the Mock: This seems to be overlooked by many, but New England could have major problems at right guard this year. Stephen Neal, a marginal player to begin with, is coming off shoulder and knee injuries. He turns 32 in October. And to top it off, his contract expires after this season. The Patriots, who couldn't keep the Giants out of the backfield during the Super Bowl, could benefit from finding a major upgrade at one of the guard positions.

Going even further, let's look at New England's draft history under Bill Belichick. Belichick has NEVER used anything higher than a third-round pick on a cornerback. He has also NEVER used anything greater than a fifth-rounder on a linebacker. Meanwhile, five of his eight initial selections were on linemen. He used three early picks on Logan Mankins, Matt Light and Adrian Klemm, all of whom were expected to be upgrades on the offensive front. I'd say Mankins and Light worked out pretty well.

Albert will start off at guard and eventually move over to tackle once he's ready.

Interesting Words: Mike Lombardi was on Bill Simmons' podcast a few days ago, and he brought up some interesting points. Lombardi, who worked with the Raiders (pre-Art Shell) said that many NFL executives believe Albert could excel at left tackle right away. Lombardi suggested that if the Patriots draft Albert, they'll put him at left tackle and move Matt Light inside. I don't necessarily agree with the move, but it's intriguing nonetheless.

I have to believe New England goes offensive line here if it can't trade down. Cornerback and linebacker don't make sense for what Belichick likes to do, and the value for offensive and defensive linemen is so high right now. Just look at the Bengals and Steelers - they used franchise tags on Stacy Andrews and Max Starks, both of whom are backup linemen.

Patriots fans may not like this pick, but I think it happens if the team can't move down past 10.
Baltimore Ravens: Matt Ryan, QB, Boston College
Before I go on, I'd like to announce that we're running an 2008 NFL Mock Draft Contest on the forum. It's free to play, and you can win $250. I hope all of you sign up.

I found it hilarious that just a few weeks after declaring that they were content with Steve McNair and Kyle Boller at quarterback, the former announced his retirement. Baltimore has to be fooling itself if it thinks Boller or Troy Smith can lead the team to the Doggone Playoff.

I won't say Matt Ryan is a lock if he's available - Leodis McKelvin is a serious option here - but the chance of the Ravens plucking the Boston College product off the board has significantly increased in the wake of McNair' retirement.
Cincinnati Bengals: Keith Rivers, OLB, USC
I'm stealing this from my 2008 NFL Mock Draft - Alternative Version, which is actually 1-for-1 (I had Jake Long going to the Dolphins atop it.)

If Sedrick Ellis is off the board, there's not much doubt in my mind that Keith Rivers will be the pick. Cincinnati's linebacking corps is a mess; already horrendous, the unit lost the team's top tackler, Landon Johnson, to free agency. Johnson was an overrated player, but the fact remains that the Bengals are thinner at the position than they were in the first place.

Also, I wouldn't count out Rashard Mendenhall either. Rudi Johnson stinks, Chris Perry is a bust and Kenny Irons may not be ready to play in 2008 (Marvin Lewis was recently quoted as saying that he doesn't expect Irons to contribute next season). If Rivers isn't available - he's a realistic option at Nos. 7 and 8 - this selection could be used on the Illinois running back.
New Orleans Saints: Leodis McKelvin, CB, Troy State
It's amazing how one pick changes everything. With Jake Long being off the board at No. 3, Glenn Dorsey will go to Atlanta. With Dorsey now not an option for Kansas City, the Chiefs will probably choose Sedrick Ellis. Without Ellis as an choice, the Bengals will take Keith Rivers. So, because the Dolphins elected to snag a right tackle off the board at No. 1, the Saints are stuck with taking a cornerback.

But that's definitely not a bad thing. Even in the wake of signing Randall Gay, corner is still a huge need for the Saints. Getting the top corner in this class has to be enticing, even if it means that Rivers is no longer an option.

One other scenario - if Ellis falls out of the top five, the Saints could trade up to No. 8. I don't see them moving all the way up to No. 2 for Glenn Dorsey.
Buffalo Bills: Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, CB, TSU
It's likely one of three things will happen with Buffalo's No. 11 selection:

Trade Down: The Bills need a massive receiver like Limas Sweed or Devin Thomas to complement the lightning-quick Lee Evans. The problem is there aren't any wide outs worth taking in this spot (even Thomas, a popular pick at this juncture.) Buffalo should be able to swap selections with a team like Philadelphia and obtain the receiver of its choice.

Defensive End: I considered Derrick Harvey here. From my offseason needs page: "The Bills could be in trouble at the defensive end position in 2008, as the guys who play across from Aaron Schobel - Chris Kelsay and Ryan Denney - both suffered serious injuries toward the end of the 2007 campaign and will consequently not be able to work out during the offseason. Buffalo needs to upgrade its pass rush anyway, as the team managed only 26 sacks." Kelsay and Denney are ahead of schedule, but they're both mediocre, and there isn't much behind Aaron Schobel.

Cornerback: The Bills have major depth issues at defensive back in the wake of losing Kiwaukee Thomas, Jerametrius Butler, Jim Leonhard, Coy Wire and E.J. Underwood this offseason. Buffalo needs to knock off the Patriots, who have Randy Moss, Wes Welker and Ben Watson all catching passes from the NFL's single-season record holder for touchdowns.

Once Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie is ready, the Bills can slide Jabari Greer into the nickel slot, giving them one of the top secondaries in the NFL.
Denver Broncos: Ryan Clady, OT, Boise State
The Broncos really need help everywhere on defense. Unfortunately, all of the top defensive players are off the board.

In the wake of Matt Lepsis' retirement, Denver has Ryan Harris and Erik Pears at the two positions, which could really be hazardous to Jay Cutler's health, should either guy struggle in pass protection. I know Mike Shanahan seldom drafts offensive tackles in the first round, but with no worthy defensive prospects available here, he may have to "settle" for the No. 2 tackle prospect in this class.

One more thing to keep in mind - if Shanahan sees Sedrick Ellis or Glenn Dorsey drop past Kansas City, he may swap selections with the Ravens or Patriots in an attempt to land one of the top two defensive tackles in this draft.
Carolina Panthers: Chris Williams, OT, Vanderbilt
The Panthers need a premier offensive tackle so they can move Travelle Wharton inside. Chris Williams is an athletic prospect who would be perfect for Carolina's zone-blocking scheme.
Chicago Bears: Jeff Otah, OT, Pittsburgh
The Bears have major offensive line issues, as John Tait recently celebrated his 33rd birthday; Ruben Brown is gone; while Fred Miller, a fossilized right tackle, was just cut. That's why it shouldn't shock anyone that Chicago couldn't pass protect (43 sacks) or run block (3.1 yards per carry) last year. The Bears must obtain the best offensive lineman available at this juncture. That happens to be Jeff Otah.

Running Back? Rashard Mendenhall will be difficult to pass up, but the Bears need to fix their offensive line before anything else. They'll be able to grab a solid running back in Rounds 2 or 3.

Quarterback? Brian Brohm is worth a look here, but I think it would be a mistake to take him. Chicago needs to address its front five before anything else. If they take a quarterback without doing so, they're going to regret watching that guy get sacked into oblivion next year. Call me crazy, but I wouldn't want someone with David Carr syndrome on my roster.
Detroit Lions: Derrick Harvey, DE, Florida
This is another selection I'm stealing from my 2008 NFL Mock Draft - Alternative Version. I'm not sure if Derrick Harvey lasts this long - some mocks have him going as high as seventh - but if he's on the board, Detroit could be all over him (the other option is Rashard Mendenhall).

I know the Lions recently signed Dewayne White to a 5-year, $29 million deal, and they like Ikaika Alama-Francis, but the fact remains that they couldn't get to the quarterback last year. Only one player on the team had more than six sacks in 2007, and that player, Shaun Rogers, was recently traded away.

Harvey gives the Lions a lot of versatility because he can play either end position. If Alama-Francis doesn't work out, Harvey will play left end. If Alama-Francis performs well, Harvey will rotate, and eventually take over for a mediocre White.
Arizona Cardinals: Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Illinois
Edgerrin James totaled more than 1,200 rushing yards this year, but he's turning 30 in August. How much longer can he possibly hold up? The Cardinals need a young back to take his place soon.

Rashard Mendenhall's not some ordinary "young back." Mendenhall managed to run a 4.37 at 225 pounds. That's simply amazing.

What about a corner? Arizona desperately needs a premier defensive back. The Cardinals can take Mike Jenkins at this juncture, but I don't see how you can possibly pass on someone as talented and promising as Mendenhall.
Kansas City Chiefs: Phillip Merling, DE, Clemson
The Chiefs would love to land an offensive tackle here, but there's no way Jeff Otah, Chris Williams, Ryan Clady or Branden Albert are making it this far. The demand for linemen is so enormous right now; the Steelers and Bengals used a franchise tag on backup tackles, while the Dolphins elected to make one the first-overall pick.

Cornerback (Mike Jenkins) is an option here, but this draft is so deep at the position that Kansas City will be able to acquire one in the second or third rounds.

The defensive end position, meanwhile, isn't as deep. The Chiefs only have two ends on their roster - Tamba Hali and Turk McBride - and this could be their final chance to land a potential starter there. Kansas City could also use one of its many selections to move up a few slots to secure Derrick Harvey.
Houston Texans: Mike Jenkins, CB, South Florida
I know a lot of Houston fans are anticipating a zone-blocking lineman like Chris Williams to fall here, but it's not happening. To reiterate what I said earlier, the demand for linemen is so enormous right now; the Steelers and Bengals used a franchise tag on backup tackles, while the Dolphins elected to make one the first-overall pick.

The Texans have done everything in their power to take down the Colts ever since they came into the NFL, and a top-notch corner would certainly help, as they don't really have anything beyond Dunta Robinson, who may actually miss the 2008 season in the wake of the torn ACL and hamstring he suffered in late December. The often-burnt Jacques Reeves, who was mistakenly given $20 million instead of $2 million when he signed with Houston on March 2, doesn't help matters at all.

Derrick Harvey and Jonathan Stewart are options here if they fall, but Houston's secondary is such a mess I don't see how they pass up on one of the top three corners in this draft.
Philadelphia Eagles: Devin Thomas, WR, Michigan State
An amusing e-mail I received from Derek in Berlin:

"You ought to be drug tested if you think the Birds will draft a WR. Fat Man did it once and screwed that up."

It's not in Andy Reid's (a.k.a. the aforementioned "Fat Man" if there was any confusion) nature to take a receiver in the first round, but Reid has seldom spent a lot of money in free agency. He did so by signing Asante Samuel and franchising L.J. "Hands of Stone" Smith. By keeping Donovan McNabb for another year - and I'm one of the many who believes this will be McNabb's final year in Philadelphia - it appears as though the Eagles are going all in. It seems like Reid knows this is his last chance to win a Super Bowl before suffering through Kevin Kolb's growing pains. For the sake of Philadelphians everywhere, I hope Reid is aware that his receiving corps, save for Kevin Curtis, is complete garbage.

I have to believe Devin Thomas is the pick if Derrick Harvey and all the top offensive tackles are off the board.

Trade Possibility: I don't predict trades in my mocks, but I'm close to doing so here.

The Eagles are in love with Chris Williams. Unfortunately for them, there's no way he's making it past Chicago at No. 14. Andy Reid should be able to trade this selection and Lito Sheppard to the Bills for the 11th pick. Williams really wouldn't be a reach at 11 because I have him going 13th to Carolina. Buffalo would benefit by landing a top-notch corner and moving into an area where it could draft a receiver without reaching.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Brian Brohm, QB, Louisville
If you've been reading this site, you know I've been wavering between Brian Brohm and a receiver like DeSean Jackson at this pick for a while. Well, Louisville's Pro Day made my decision a bit easier.

Despite anything Todd McShay thinks, Brohm had every scout and general manager salivating during his performance. He threw the ball extremely well and looked very sharp. Oh, and he also ran a 4.6, which should dispel all notion that he's an immobile, Drew Bledsoe-like pocket passer.

I don't see how the Buccaneers pass on Brohm now. He may not even be here; a squad like the Falcons could move up past them, perhaps trading with the Texans, who could be looking at Sam Baker at the beginning of the second round.

I know this gives Tampa Bay about 502,104 quarterbacks on its roster, but I don't expect Bruce Gradkowski or Chris Simms to make the cut. Someone has to take over when Jeff Garcia moves on in a year or two, and I'm not sure if Luke McCown's the guy.

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Cincinnati Bengals: Keith Rivers, OLB, USC
I'm stealing this from my 2008 NFL Mock Draft - Alternative Version, which is actually 1-for-1 (I had Jake Long going to the Dolphins atop it.)

If Sedrick Ellis is off the board, there's not much doubt in my mind that Keith Rivers will be the pick. Cincinnati's linebacking corps is a mess; already horrendous, the unit lost the team's top tackler, Landon Johnson, to free agency. Johnson was an overrated player, but the fact remains that the Bengals are thinner at the position than they were in the first place.

Also, I wouldn't count out Rashard Mendenhall either. Rudi Johnson stinks, Chris Perry is a bust and Kenny Irons may not be ready to play in 2008 (Marvin Lewis was recently quoted as saying that he doesn't expect Irons to contribute next season). If Rivers isn't available - he's a realistic option at Nos. 7 and 8 - this selection could be used on the Illinois running back.
New Orleans Saints: Leodis McKelvin, CB, Troy State
It's amazing how one pick changes everything. With Jake Long being off the board at No. 3, Glenn Dorsey will go to Atlanta. With Dorsey now not an option for Kansas City, the Chiefs will probably choose Sedrick Ellis. Without Ellis as an choice, the Bengals will take Keith Rivers. So, because the Dolphins elected to snag a right tackle off the board at No. 1, the Saints are stuck with taking a cornerback.

But that's definitely not a bad thing. Even in the wake of signing Randall Gay, corner is still a huge need for the Saints. Getting the top corner in this class has to be enticing, even if it means that Rivers is no longer an option.

One other scenario - if Ellis falls out of the top five, the Saints could trade up to No. 8. I don't see them moving all the way up to No. 2 for Glenn Dorsey.
Buffalo Bills: Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, CB, TSU
It's likely one of three things will happen with Buffalo's No. 11 selection:

Trade Down: The Bills need a massive receiver like Limas Sweed or Devin Thomas to complement the lightning-quick Lee Evans. The problem is there aren't any wide outs worth taking in this spot (even Thomas, a popular pick at this juncture.) Buffalo should be able to swap selections with a team like Philadelphia and obtain the receiver of its choice.

Defensive End: I considered Derrick Harvey here. From my offseason needs page: "The Bills could be in trouble at the defensive end position in 2008, as the guys who play across from Aaron Schobel - Chris Kelsay and Ryan Denney - both suffered serious injuries toward the end of the 2007 campaign and will consequently not be able to work out during the offseason. Buffalo needs to upgrade its pass rush anyway, as the team managed only 26 sacks." Kelsay and Denney are ahead of schedule, but they're both mediocre, and there isn't much behind Aaron Schobel.

Cornerback: The Bills have major depth issues at defensive back in the wake of losing Kiwaukee Thomas, Jerametrius Butler, Jim Leonhard, Coy Wire and E.J. Underwood this offseason. Buffalo needs to knock off the Patriots, who have Randy Moss, Wes Welker and Ben Watson all catching passes from the NFL's single-season record holder for touchdowns.

Once Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie is ready, the Bills can slide Jabari Greer into the nickel slot, giving them one of the top secondaries in the NFL.
Denver Broncos: Ryan Clady, OT, Boise State
The Broncos really need help everywhere on defense. Unfortunately, all of the top defensive players are off the board.

In the wake of Matt Lepsis' retirement, Denver has Ryan Harris and Erik Pears at the two positions, which could really be hazardous to Jay Cutler's health, should either guy struggle in pass protection. I know Mike Shanahan seldom drafts offensive tackles in the first round, but with no worthy defensive prospects available here, he may have to "settle" for the No. 2 tackle prospect in this class.

One more thing to keep in mind - if Shanahan sees Sedrick Ellis or Glenn Dorsey drop past Kansas City, he may swap selections with the Ravens or Patriots in an attempt to land one of the top two defensive tackles in this draft.
Carolina Panthers: Chris Williams, OT, Vanderbilt
The Panthers need a premier offensive tackle so they can move Travelle Wharton inside. Chris Williams is an athletic prospect who would be perfect for Carolina's zone-blocking scheme.
Chicago Bears: Jeff Otah, OT, Pittsburgh
The Bears have major offensive line issues, as John Tait recently celebrated his 33rd birthday; Ruben Brown is gone; while Fred Miller, a fossilized right tackle, was just cut. That's why it shouldn't shock anyone that Chicago couldn't pass protect (43 sacks) or run block (3.1 yards per carry) last year. The Bears must obtain the best offensive lineman available at this juncture. That happens to be Jeff Otah.

Running Back? Rashard Mendenhall will be difficult to pass up, but the Bears need to fix their offensive line before anything else. They'll be able to grab a solid running back in Rounds 2 or 3.

Quarterback? Brian Brohm is worth a look here, but I think it would be a mistake to take him. Chicago needs to address its front five before anything else. If they take a quarterback without doing so, they're going to regret watching that guy get sacked into oblivion next year. Call me crazy, but I wouldn't want someone with David Carr syndrome on my roster.
Detroit Lions: Derrick Harvey, DE, Florida
This is another selection I'm stealing from my 2008 NFL Mock Draft - Alternative Version. I'm not sure if Derrick Harvey lasts this long - some mocks have him going as high as seventh - but if he's on the board, Detroit could be all over him (the other option is Rashard Mendenhall).

I know the Lions recently signed Dewayne White to a 5-year, $29 million deal, and they like Ikaika Alama-Francis, but the fact remains that they couldn't get to the quarterback last year. Only one player on the team had more than six sacks in 2007, and that player, Shaun Rogers, was recently traded away.

Harvey gives the Lions a lot of versatility because he can play either end position. If Alama-Francis doesn't work out, Harvey will play left end. If Alama-Francis performs well, Harvey will rotate, and eventually take over for a mediocre White.
Arizona Cardinals: Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Illinois
Edgerrin James totaled more than 1,200 rushing yards this year, but he's turning 30 in August. How much longer can he possibly hold up? The Cardinals need a young back to take his place soon.

Rashard Mendenhall's not some ordinary "young back." Mendenhall managed to run a 4.37 at 225 pounds. That's simply amazing.

What about a corner? Arizona desperately needs a premier defensive back. The Cardinals can take Mike Jenkins at this juncture, but I don't see how you can possibly pass on someone as talented and promising as Mendenhall.
Kansas City Chiefs: Phillip Merling, DE, Clemson
The Chiefs would love to land an offensive tackle here, but there's no way Jeff Otah, Chris Williams, Ryan Clady or Branden Albert are making it this far. The demand for linemen is so enormous right now; the Steelers and Bengals used a franchise tag on backup tackles, while the Dolphins elected to make one the first-overall pick.

Cornerback (Mike Jenkins) is an option here, but this draft is so deep at the position that Kansas City will be able to acquire one in the second or third rounds.

The defensive end position, meanwhile, isn't as deep. The Chiefs only have two ends on their roster - Tamba Hali and Turk McBride - and this could be their final chance to land a potential starter there. Kansas City could also use one of its many selections to move up a few slots to secure Derrick Harvey.
Houston Texans: Mike Jenkins, CB, South Florida
I know a lot of Houston fans are anticipating a zone-blocking lineman like Chris Williams to fall here, but it's not happening. To reiterate what I said earlier, the demand for linemen is so enormous right now; the Steelers and Bengals used a franchise tag on backup tackles, while the Dolphins elected to make one the first-overall pick.

The Texans have done everything in their power to take down the Colts ever since they came into the NFL, and a top-notch corner would certainly help, as they don't really have anything beyond Dunta Robinson, who may actually miss the 2008 season in the wake of the torn ACL and hamstring he suffered in late December. The often-burnt Jacques Reeves, who was mistakenly given $20 million instead of $2 million when he signed with Houston on March 2, doesn't help matters at all.

Derrick Harvey and Jonathan Stewart are options here if they fall, but Houston's secondary is such a mess I don't see how they pass up on one of the top three corners in this draft.
Philadelphia Eagles: Devin Thomas, WR, Michigan State
An amusing e-mail I received from Derek in Berlin:

"You ought to be drug tested if you think the Birds will draft a WR. Fat Man did it once and screwed that up."

It's not in Andy Reid's (a.k.a. the aforementioned "Fat Man" if there was any confusion) nature to take a receiver in the first round, but Reid has seldom spent a lot of money in free agency. He did so by signing Asante Samuel and franchising L.J. "Hands of Stone" Smith. By keeping Donovan McNabb for another year - and I'm one of the many who believes this will be McNabb's final year in Philadelphia - it appears as though the Eagles are going all in. It seems like Reid knows this is his last chance to win a Super Bowl before suffering through Kevin Kolb's growing pains. For the sake of Philadelphians everywhere, I hope Reid is aware that his receiving corps, save for Kevin Curtis, is complete garbage.

I have to believe Devin Thomas is the pick if Derrick Harvey and all the top offensive tackles are off the board.

Trade Possibility: I don't predict trades in my mocks, but I'm close to doing so here.

The Eagles are in love with Chris Williams. Unfortunately for them, there's no way he's making it past Chicago at No. 14. Andy Reid should be able to trade this selection and Lito Sheppard to the Bills for the 11th pick. Williams really wouldn't be a reach at 11 because I have him going 13th to Carolina. Buffalo would benefit by landing a top-notch corner and moving into an area where it could draft a receiver without reaching.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Brian Brohm, QB, Louisville
If you've been reading this site, you know I've been wavering between Brian Brohm and a receiver like DeSean Jackson at this pick for a while. Well, Louisville's Pro Day made my decision a bit easier.

Despite anything Todd McShay thinks, Brohm had every scout and general manager salivating during his performance. He threw the ball extremely well and looked very sharp. Oh, and he also ran a 4.6, which should dispel all notion that he's an immobile, Drew Bledsoe-like pocket passer.

I don't see how the Buccaneers pass on Brohm now. He may not even be here; a squad like the Falcons could move up past them, perhaps trading with the Texans, who could be looking at Sam Baker at the beginning of the second round.

I know this gives Tampa Bay about 502,104 quarterbacks on its roster, but I don't expect Bruce Gradkowski or Chris Simms to make the cut. Someone has to take over when Jeff Garcia moves on in a year or two, and I'm not sure if Luke McCown's the guy.
Washington Redskins: Limas Sweed, WR, Texas
If all of the top defensive ends are off the board - and that does not include Calais Campbell - Washington will turn its attention to the receiver position.

If you need proof that the Redskins are after a massive wide out, take the fact that they offered this pick and what could have been a 2009 first-rounder for Chad Johnson. Santana Moss and Antwaan Randle El were both in and out of the lineup last season, and the Redskins need a large receiver in the mix. At 6-4, 216, Limas Sweed is much more physically imposing than both Moss and Randle El (both 5-10).
Dallas Cowboys: DeSean Jackson, WR/PR, California
Jerry Jones was quoted as saying that his No. 1 priority is acquiring a top-notch target across from Terrell Owens. That's pretty obvious, as Terry Glenn is nearing retirement, while Patrick Crayton did everything in his power to knock his own team out of the playoffs. If the Cowboys can't trade for Anquan Boldin or Roy Williams, they'll have to spend one of their first two selections on a wide out.
Pittsburgh Steelers: Gosder Cherilus, OT, Boston College
Pittsburgh's front surrendered 47 sacks in 2007. The unit couldn't even keep the Rams out of the backfield. It got worse against the Jaguars, as Ben Roethlisberger was sacked four times in the first 20 minutes. Now, Alan Faneca is gone. Major help is needed here. I considered James Hardy, but the offensive line must be fixed before anything else.
Tennessee Titans: James Hardy, WR, Indiana
Way to draft a quarterback and not provide him with any good receivers. Good job. It's amazing that a 320-pound head-stomping defensive tackle can be wiser than a bunch of suits working in an office. Here's to hoping someone grew a brain in one of their meetings.

I know it sounds like I'm making fun of the Titans a lot on this site, but I'm just frustrated that they're not doing anything to benefit Vince Young. I've always supported Young, and it's annoys me that he could be successful if he had talented wide outs to work with. Tennessee's inability to secure one just boggles my mind.

Another reminder that we're running an 2008 NFL Mock Draft Contest on the forum. It's free to play, and you can win $250.
Seattle Seahawks: Jonathan Stewart, RB, Oregon
Running back isn't a huge need for the Seahawks in the wake of the Julius Jones and T.J. Duckett signings, but I just don't know how they pass on Jonathan Stewart if he's available.

As predicted back in October, Shaun Alexander was cut (his next destination could be New England, Miami or Dunkin Donuts), leaving Jones, Duckett and Maurice Morris on the roster. Of those three, only Duckett is a power runner. Call me crazy, but I'm not ready to count on a guy who has missed 11 games the past two seasons and hasn't managed more than 380 rushing yards since 2004.

This is a tough spot for the Seahawks with Branden Albert and the top four receivers off the board. The Seahawks still have a variety of options, including Kentwan Balmer, Fred Davis and Kenny Phillips, but Stewart just seems like too good a prospect to eschew.
Jacksonville Jaguars: Kentwan Balmer, DT, North Carolina
With all of the top defensive ends off the board, the Jaguars may look at a defensive tackle to ease the loss of Marcus Stroud. I'm not sure if Rob Meier's the full-time answer next to John Henderson.

Trade Possibility? I think both Phillip Merling and Derrick Harvey would look great in a Jacksonville uniform. Given that the team didn't address the defensive end position via free agency and that they acquired a few extra selections from Buffalo, I think there's a good chance they'll trade up in front of Washington to secure one of the two ends, should they be available.
San Diego Chargers: Duane Brown, OT, Virginia Tech
With Clinton Hart's contract extended, it becomes unlikely that the Chargers will draft Kenny Phillips or Reggie Smith. With that in mind, they have to go offensive tackle because they have nothing at right tackle. The problem is, Jeff Otah, Branden Albert and Gosder Cherilus are off the board.

I believe San Diego will trade down. Maybe with Atlanta if Brian Brohm drops. Perhaps with another squad desperate for Jerod Mayo. The Chargers have to make something happen. Once they move into the second round, they'll draft Anthony Collins, Carl Nicks or Duane Brown. And if they can't deal this pick? Well, they're just going to have to reach for the top lineman remaining on the board.

Pick change; previously Anthony Collins, OT
Dallas Cowboys: Aqib Talib, CB, Kansas
Terence Newman and Anthony Henry aren't exactly young. Newman will be 30 in September, while Henry doesn't have many productive seasons remaining in the NFL. Jacques Reeves, who signed a ridiculous contract with Houston, was one of the worst nickel corners in the NFL. Meanwhile, Pacman Jones, who was just acquired for a fourth-round pick might not even get the chance to play next season if Roger Goodell has anything to say about it.

I moved Aqib Talib down in the wake of his smoking weed because some teams might be scared to take him. To quote Bill Parcells, "That's just dumb." I'm willing to bet that at least two-thirds of NFL players smoke herb. It shouldn't be a big deal, but that's what the media makes it out to be.
San Francisco 49ers: Quentin Groves, DE/OLB, Auburn
I've had Early Doucet and Kentwan Balmer going here in my past updates, but things will definitely be different if Quentin Groves makes it to this spot. The 49ers surrendered 22.8 points per game, and were ranked 22nd against both the run and the pass in 2007. Their defensive front seven was pathetic, as no one on the roster had more than six sacks. Groves will definitely change that.

If Groves isn't here, Doucet, Dre Moore and Carl Nicks are all options.
Green Bay Packers: Antoine Cason, CB, Arizona
Assuming Aaron Rodgers can play as well as he did in the second half of the Cowboys game, the Packers don't have many weaknesses. One of the team's few downfalls, however, is at cornerback - Charles Woodson and Al Harris will be 32 and 34, respectively, by December. Youth is desperately needed at this position. It also helps that Antoine Cason is one of the top players available at this juncture; I had him going 18th in one of my previous mock.
New York Giants: Kenny Phillips, FS, Miami
Congratulations to the New York Giants. You won the Super Bowl as 12-point underdogs, stopped the first team in NFL history that had a chance of going 19-0, and single-handedly prevented a mass suicide by the 1972 Dolphins.

Gibril Wilson was a major reason the Giants were able to win that Super Bowl. Wilson stepped it up and was rewarded with a big contract with the Raiders. New York needs to find a replacement.