Viva Las Vegas!
Crunch time - time to lean into the Vegas odds when banging out my mock.
For this exercise, I've averaged Vegas consensus 1-5/6-10/1st round odds and player O/U odds to determine the current exact top-2 rounds of player selections. I then analyze the player/team matches and whether they makes sense, taking into account Vegas team/1st pick position odds and my own opinions. If the match makes no sense at all, then options according to Vegas implied player tiers are discussed, as are potential trade spots. I've lost my mind.
For this exercise, I've averaged Vegas consensus 1-5/6-10/1st round odds and player O/U odds to determine the current exact top-2 rounds of player selections. I then analyze the player/team matches and whether they makes sense, taking into account Vegas team/1st pick position odds and my own opinions. If the match makes no sense at all, then options according to Vegas implied player tiers are discussed, as are potential trade spots. I've lost my mind.
Round 1
I mean, OL is at -145 for position DET picks first for a reason, right? This might be Kayden Proctor's floor, and I don't think plug-n-play RT Blake Miller would be a reach.
Watch out for Keldric Faulk for the Lions. DET desperately needs a worthwhile 4-3 DE opposite Aidan Hutchinson.
Watch out for Keldric Faulk for the Lions. DET desperately needs a worthwhile 4-3 DE opposite Aidan Hutchinson.
Ugh. This chalk is inescapable. Every mock has MIN netting Thieleman, and Vegas has him firmly slotted at 1.18. I hate chalk so I give you this: DL (+190) is currently just ahead of S (+200) as first position drafted for MIN. There's hope.
Sign FA S Donovan Wilson? Keldric Faulk as a 5T? Peter Woods? Kayden McDonald? C'mon Vikings, anything but the "he looks like Harrison Smith" choice.
Sign FA S Donovan Wilson? Keldric Faulk as a 5T? Peter Woods? Kayden McDonald? C'mon Vikings, anything but the "he looks like Harrison Smith" choice.
I've seen a few mocks that have the Panthers going OT. I'd be surprised. Having just signed Rasheed Walker, that would be a luxury move. The Panthers aren't there yet.
My hunch is that CAR will come out of the 1st round with Kenyon Sadiq, Kenyon McDonald or Keldric Faulk. Pack 20 more good pounds on Faulk's lengthy frame and you might have a poor man's Calais Campbell at 3-4 DE. The Panthers need better than Band-Aid Tershawn Wharton opposite Derrick Brown.
Note: I'm higher on Kayden McDonald than most and think he could pop off as early as 1.19. He's in play for the Panthers.
My hunch is that CAR will come out of the 1st round with Kenyon Sadiq, Kenyon McDonald or Keldric Faulk. Pack 20 more good pounds on Faulk's lengthy frame and you might have a poor man's Calais Campbell at 3-4 DE. The Panthers need better than Band-Aid Tershawn Wharton opposite Derrick Brown.
Note: I'm higher on Kayden McDonald than most and think he could pop off as early as 1.19. He's in play for the Panthers.
Faulk would make sense as an EDGE tag-team partner for undersized Donovan Ezeiruaka.
DAL/Omar Cooper would make sense if the Cowboys trade George Pickens. We'll see what happens there.
I'm guessing DAL ultimately trades out of this pick to recoup some Day 2 assets, especially if they trade up from 1.12 for Styles or Love.
Why can't I shake this feeling that - some how, some way - the Cowboys will draft Dillon Thieneman?
DAL/Omar Cooper would make sense if the Cowboys trade George Pickens. We'll see what happens there.
I'm guessing DAL ultimately trades out of this pick to recoup some Day 2 assets, especially if they trade up from 1.12 for Styles or Love.
Why can't I shake this feeling that - some how, some way - the Cowboys will draft Dillon Thieneman?
Miller makes a lot of sense for PIT, who are currently at +185 to draft OL first. (Tied with WR.) Miller would allow Troy Fautanu to move to his natural LG position, or even LT should Broderick Jones' performance/health issues continue.
It's hard to say what PIT will do here when we're not privy to what's going on with the health of Broderick Jones. Spinal fusion surgery is serious business. What we do know is that Jones couldn't beat out Dan Moore at LT in '24, then struggled at LT (57.7 PFF grade through 12 games) before his neck injury last season. The Steelers are expected to deny Jones' $19M option for next season. Caleb Lomu would also make sense here as a starting LG and insurance for Jones.
It's hard to say what PIT will do here when we're not privy to what's going on with the health of Broderick Jones. Spinal fusion surgery is serious business. What we do know is that Jones couldn't beat out Dan Moore at LT in '24, then struggled at LT (57.7 PFF grade through 12 games) before his neck injury last season. The Steelers are expected to deny Jones' $19M option for next season. Caleb Lomu would also make sense here as a starting LG and insurance for Jones.
WR (+450) is in play for the Chargers, but DL (-120) is the current favorite for their first pick. Kayden McDonald or Peter Woods would be nice fits.
The Eagles just traded for Dontayvion Wicks on the heels of signing Hollywood Brown and Elijah Moore. PHI is going to trade A.J. Brown. (My money is on NE or BAL.) PHI/Cooper makes perfect sense if Cooper is available.
I wouldn't rule out Mesidor for PHI, as you can never rule out EDGE for PHI.
Ultimately, I think PHI will stay a step ahead of their need/age/contract situation along the OL and draft an OL capable of starting at RG then replacing Lane Johnson down the road. Caleb Lomu? Max Iheanachor?
I wouldn't rule out Mesidor for PHI, as you can never rule out EDGE for PHI.
Ultimately, I think PHI will stay a step ahead of their need/age/contract situation along the OL and draft an OL capable of starting at RG then replacing Lane Johnson down the road. Caleb Lomu? Max Iheanachor?
Lomu would be the ideal pick for CLE should they opt for Carnell Tate at 1.06.
The Bears need to stop the run. They should make every effort to snag NT Kayden McDonald.
Another team that could really use Kayden McDonald. Vegas agrees (DL comfortably at #1 at -130 to be their first pick.)
Woods is entirely possible (DL +170), but my money is on OL (+115) or WR (+320). Iheanachor and Concepcion/Boston would fit.
McDonald is going to pop off higher than this, but yeah, he would be the perfect fit for the Texans, assuming none of top-tier O-linemen slip. I wouldn't be shocked if the Texans trade this pick for Dexter Lawrence.
KC/Iheanachor makes a ton of sense.
I don't like McNeil-Warren in the 1st round, but Vegas seems to. (-265 on OVER 2.5 safeties to be drafted in the 1st round.)
"Boston" to the Patriots. The need is there. C'mon Pats, make it happen.
Wouldn't count out an EDGE for SEA given Lawrence's age and the loss of Moye, but I'm thinking Schneider would like to trade out of here. If the Seahawks stick-n-pick, I like Chris Johnson or RB Jadarian Price as the last 1st-rounder.