Alabama

Darious Williams being released due to cap constraints opens a huge hole at outside cornerback for Jacksonville. The Jaguars want to get more physical on defense, and Arnold was a pest in coverage for the Crimson Tide last season. Arnold had a so-so combine but has outstanding tape and was very productive in 2023, so I won’t over-react to that performance. Arnold could be one of the better nickel cornerbacks in the NFL during his rookie contract, but could also play boundary corner and likely do well there. I’ve flipped Mitchell/Arnold a couple of times, but my default stance is Mitchell at #15, Arnold at #17, and short of a last minute report that will be my final call.

Oregon State

I expect this to be a pick in the trenches - question is; offensive, or defense? The Bengals’ run defense was amongst the worst in the NFL, but Byron Murphy II is now exceptionally unlikely to be here, and Jer'Zhan Newton is a Kancey-type rather than a road grader. The Bengals continue to have a big need along their offensive line. Cincinnati laterally replaced Jonah Williams with Trent Brown, but the hulking right tackle - whilst still talented - has injury, consistency and effort issues. Here is a very talented right tackle who can start at guard Day 1, before sliding to right tackle. Fuaga has been one of the biggest risers this past season, being a tough as nails blocker with excellent tape. He also had a terrific combine, both in terms of testing and in terms of interviews/football IQ (as per Charlie Campbell). Fuaga is viewed as a guard by some teams, and a right tackle by others. I think he’s a little overrated going as high as #10, but I’m a big fan of him in this sort of range.

Penn State

The Rams are in a really nice position to take the best defensive player at this spot, and if Byron Murphy II is available then he would be a tremendous selection to try and replace Aaron Donald. However, they need another 3-4 outside linebacker and I will revert to a fit I projected in a previous mock. Chop Robinson’s freakish athleticism and natural 3-4 OLB fit seems a fantastic match for the Rams, who need to pair up Byron Young with another young edge rusher. Robinson was trending downwards as a potential top-32 pick thanks to an inconsistent 2023 season, not putting up much production. He is, however, an exceptionally twitchy edge rusher with a ton of upside. He also interviewed well, has high character marks, and tested ridiculously well in Indianapolis. Of note - the Rams reportedly went to Happy Valley to meet with Robinson late in the process.

Georgia

The Steelers ideally need another offensive tackle, center and boundary cornerback. There aren’t many great fits for the latter position to what the Steelers need, and Barton or Powers-Johnson would not be at all surprising - but the Steelers might not be able to pass on Amarius Mims if he gets to their pick at #20. My gut feeling is Mims won’t slide into the late-1st round like many suspect. I am besotted by Mims’ potential as a prospect, who is my “Tyler Smith” OL draft crush of this draft class. With another half a season of tape, I think Mims would be a consensus top-10 pick. Whilst I understand the concerns - both with sample size and durability - Amarius Mims is likely too good to slide much further than this. Other “safer” tackle prospects will go ahead of him, but Mims could be a beast in the NFL.

Duke

The Dolphins require interior defensive line help, but also lost two interior offensive line starters in Connor Williams and Robert Hunt. Aaron Brewer presumably fills the gap at center, but they still need a plug-and-plug guard. Graham Barton has a range of outcomes in this draft. He is a very good athlete and potential 5-position starter. Barton played left tackle for the Blue Devils, but is more of a center or guard at the next level, similar to ‘22 draft pick Peter Skoronski. Barton has been a big up and down in 2023, but is a pretty high floor starter with a solid 1st round grade and would laterally replace one of the 3 interior offensive line positions. Something of note - Charlie Campbell has reported that Barton is considered overrated by teams. It'll be interesting to see if Barton slides as a result.

Oklahoma

he Eagles are probably the hardest pick of all first rounders to predict. Their MO is to draft WR, OL or DL in the early rounds, and eschew cornerback and linderbacker to later rounds. However, the Eagles secondary was an utter trainwreck in 2023, and their linebacking was just as bad. The Eagles reportedly want Quinyon Mitchell, but that trade up is just too risky to predict at risk of unsettling my entire mid-round. Equally, I am forcing a fit rather than listening to my gut, which is that the Eagles will go with a higher profile position here more in line with their drafting philosophy, even if said player sits for a year. Tyler Guyton is very raw and needs developing, but has a high ceiling and wouldn't be criticized on my part as a top-16 pick. Guyton probably needs to sit for his rookie year, or start at guard, but by the end of his first contract could be a formidable tackle.

Illinois

I like Jer’Zhan Newton here at #23 for two reasons. Firstly, the Vikings have absolute no talent at 3-4 defensive end or defensive tackle. Secondly, if the Cardinals trade with the Vikings, this would be the 2nd pick received from the Vikings in a hypothetical trade, and Newton would be a good fit for them also. For much of this process, I felt Newton was grossly overrated. Now, Newton is trending towards being underrated as he’s being tanked in other mock drafts. Newton is a love/hate prospect and limited run defender; he is, however, a dangerous interior pass rushing threat; a rare commodity in the NFL. The Cardinals have had a weakness at defensive tackle for years, and their mid-value free agency signings of Bilal Nichols and Justin Jones would not supersede them taking an interior pass rushing DT if the right prospect was to fall to them.

Oregon

It is possible that Tyler Smith will move to Left Tackle again, but he was so elite at guard that they may opt to draft a future LT and leave where he excelled in 2023. However, I love Graham Barton and Jackson Powers-Johnson as fits at center, and the latter has been connected with the Cowboys in recent days. Jackson Powers-Johnson is coming off an excellent year as the starting center for the Oregon Ducks, and has the versatility to play guard either side of the offensive line. He was dominant at the Senior Bowl. Charlie Campbell reported that ESPN rumours of Powers-Johnson falling doesn’t align with what he’s hearing with teams, with several “playoff teams” having him as a serious contender for their pick.

Iowa

The Packers’ secondary is a shambles, at cornerback (outside of the oft injured Jaire Alexander) and at safety. Cooper DeJean feels like a prototypical Brian Gutekunst pick, offering the exact versatility the Packers weak secondary for a program they’ve recently trusted. This is also within his “goldilocks” draft range of the mid-20’s. Cooper DeJean is a quality playmaker with good ball skills and safety/slot ability, but I think he can also hang as a good to great boundary cornerback. He’s a comparable prospect to solid rookie DB Brian Branch but with far superior athleticism, and would be an option in up to three of positions of need for the Packers.

Florida State

Despite spending 5 of their last 6 first picks on front-seven defenders, the Buccaneers really need help at edge rusher. YaYa Diaby is a very nice player, but Shaq Barrett was released as a cap measure; Joe Tryon-Shoyinka and Logan Hall are also both trending towards a bust. Jared Verse is a high upside option to finally give the Buccaneers a toolsy quarterback hunter. The former Seminole was touted as a top-5 prospect entering the season, but has slid a bit this season; he is still pretty raw after only 2 years in top-division football. Equally, Verse is a very talented edge rusher with good production in '22 - '23. A terrific combine also shows he has upside to continue to improve, and should be a safe Round 1 choice.

Clemson

The Cardinals could justify just about any player here, as their roster is arguably the weakest in the entire NFL. Their defense is an unmitigated disaster on paper, and Sean Murphy-Bunting, their only starting caliber option, is more of a nickel. Although is no longer my CB1, I still very much like Nate Wiggins. He has a starting boundary corner skill-set in this draft class, with good range, size and athletic ability. His ball skills aren’t exceptional, but he is very disruptive and a balanced corner between man and zone. He could go as high as the late teens or slide to the early 2nd round, as he hasn’t had the best pre-draft process and has reported character concerns.

LSU

The Bills clearly need to give Josh Allen more receiving weapons. This was already the case prior to trading Stefon Diggs; now, it feels almost a certainty they'll target a receiver in Round 1. Full disclosure - this is predicting the Bills take Brian Thomas Jr. via a trade up, but it's too risky for me to engineer an actual trade up. My 3 predicted trades are all pretty low risk if they do not come to fruition, whereas the Bills would likely need to come up a lot to get Thomas. Either way, Thomas Jr. is an incredible receiving prospect who should be a top-20 pick and has the upside of an even higher choice, so I don’t think he’d last thi long in real time. He is a bit raw and doesn't always play to his size, but he has incredible athleticism and true WR1 potential. With the expected bull rush on offensive lineman and the immense quality/depth of this receiving class, I feel like some really good receivers could slide and it wouldn’t shock me if only 4 or 5 went in Round 1 as opposed to the 6+ projected by the media.

Missouri

The Lions front office is one of the more impressive in the NFL and have done an incredible job re-building a forgotten franchise and making them a top NFC squad within 3 drafts.However, they need to pair Aidan Hutchinson with a high upside 4-3 defensive end, and Darius Robinson feels like the perfect “Lions” pick. Darius Robinson is a multi-year starter with inside/outside versatility. He had an incredible pre-draft process, dominating the combine and show-casing his toughness. He fits the knee-biting M.O. of this regime, and is also a local Michigan prospect who could be a good cultural match.

Arizona

The Ravens’ have several needs considering how good they were in 2023. However, their OL needs to be priority No. 1 and it's likely the Ravens felt comfortable trading away quality starting right tackle Morgan Moses because of the quality of this OL draft. They have long-term issues at LT, as Ronnie Stanley is a shadow of his former self, and Morgan Moses was traded away to the Jets (a move I disliked, as he is a solid veteran starter at a really important position). They are also missing starting guard Kevin Zeitler, who signed for the Lions. Patrick Mekari - who did very well as an OL6 throughout his tenure with Baltimore - could have a shot at starting at G or RT, but they could do with a long-term, higher-upside option. Jordan Morgan is likely going to profile as a guard at the next level, but is a really good athlete with good tape over the past two years. He did well to play as well as he did coming off significant injury.

Western Michigan

As a 49ers fan, I want this to be an offensive lineman, and if we need to trade up for a premium right tackle or right guard, then so be it. The hamartia of the 49ers' Super Bowl campaign was the right side of their offensive line, after all. However, the 49ers are in a position to get the best player available here- perhaps Darius Robinson, Marshawn Kneeland or Kool-Aid McKinstry and then consider a trade up for someone like Patrick Paul, Roger Rosengarten or Kingsley Suamataia in Round 2. All three are good scheme fits, but reaches in Round 1 (Paul is the most forgivable of the three). Meanwhile, along their defensive line the 49ers plugged the gap with several good veterans on 1-2 years, but there is little certainty or youth along their defensive line outside of Nick Bosa. Marshawn Kneeland is perhaps more of an early 2nd round pick, but at #31 it would be pedantic to hate the value (I have him #36 on my big board). Kneeland has had an excellent pre-draft process and has the prototypical “Niners-esque” inside/outside versatility they would covet. He’s someone the 49ers have met with in Santa Clara on a top-30, a tell for early round players we take.

South Carolina

The Chiefs need a left tackle desperately, and they have been connected with Kingsley Suamataia. Reid is known to love BYU lineman and Suamataia is a good fit as a future LT with upside. However, he’d be a reach here and most at this point would consider him a Day 2 prospect. Instead, I’m making the switch to another draft crush of mine. AD Mitchell, Xavier Worthy and Ladd McConkey are bigger names, but personally Xavier Legette is my 5th rated receiver over these 3 prospects (who I view as early-to-mid 2nd round talents). Legette a very talented X receiver with good side and after the catch ability. Whilst a late breakout, he has upside to continue to develop and get better.