Miami

All signs point to Cam Ward to be the first overall pick. The pundits are in near-universal agreement that the Titans have settled on Ward as their QB of the future. Tennessee passed on Sam Darnold, Russell Wilson, Jameis Winston, and others in free agency. And they haven't shown much interest in Aaron Rodgers since the early rumors linking him to the Titans.

Tennessee cannot enter the season with Will Levis as the starting QB. Cam Ward would likely not be the top QB prospect in stronger classes, but he has undeniable talent. He excels when the play breaks down and has good mobility. His mechanics need work, but this kind of thing has rarely stopped desperate teams from "overdrafting" QBs in the past. Ward also has a strong personality, and the Titans believe he has the makings of a leader.

Colorado

The Browns have been QB-hungry for almost three decades now. That saga is well-documented, and I won't rehash it here. Cleveland has a true need at QB, but the class is much stronger at the top of the second round, and will likely have a shot at drafting Quinn Ewers, Jalen Milroe, Jaxon Dart, or Tyler Shough.

For this pick, I believe the Browns will bet on the versatile Travis Hunter. He fills a need on both sides of the ball, and I think the Browns would love to have the "problem" of figuring out where Hunter plays in the NFL. My guess is that they will give him many reps on both offense and defense during his rookie season to experiment. Hunter is the 1a/1b prospect in this draft.

Penn State

QB is a possibility here, but Daboll and the front office are fighting for their jobs. Normally, this would signal reaching on a QB prospect, but (1) the Giants signed Russell Wilson and Jameis Winston in free agency, (2) there are solid QB options in round 2, and (3) Abdul Carter is really, really good.

Carter doesn't fill a huge need for New York, but he would create a formidable pass rush with Kayvon Thibodeaux and Brian Burns. Carter is also a versatile defender who can play multiple techniques. Naturally, he has drawn comparisons to Micah Parsons (the Penn State connection), but even if he only fills out 75% of Parsons' production, this will be a pick well spent.

Boise State

More on the Patriots in a bit. There are many reports that Las Vegas is in love with Ashton Jeanty. It is possible that he falls to them at #6, but there are other reports that Jacksonville is strongly considering Jeanty at #5. With Travis Hunter and Abdul Carter off the board, New England will likely field trade offers for the fourth pick. I think the Raiders would be willing to give up some capital to move up two spots.

Jeanty is an elite RB prospect-- similar in value to Saquon Barkley and Bijan Robinson, which I believes lends some warrant to picking him this high. Jeanty is capable running between the tackles, and bouncing it outside. He has 4.4 speed and is built low to the ground which makes him good at absorbing contact and breaking tackles. He's also an able receiver.

I don't love a team who is in a quasi-rebuild choosing a RB this high, but Jeanty probably improves the team on the net, and the Raiders wouldn't have great options picking at six if Jeanty doesn't fall to them.

Michigan

With Jeanty gone, I believe Jacksonville will focus on rebuilding its horrible defensive line, though they might go for a corner. They could target either the edge or interior with this pick. I'm predicting the latter with the Jaguars selecting Mason Graham.

Graham doesn't have the biggest body for a defensive tackle, but he plays with decent strength and is highly skilled getting around blocks and disrupting the run. I continue to believe that his teammate, Kenneth Grant, will be the superior NFL player, but Graham will likely hold his own in the league and be a serviceable starter for some time.

LSU

TRADE WITH LAS VEGAS

The rumor is that Vrabel and the front office hope Travis Hunter or Abdul Carter fall to pick 4 (but, I assume any team drafting fourth would hope that as well). The Patriots have a serious need at left tackle, but it's perhaps a reach for them to select any of the top prospects at 4. I still think they'll target the offensive line, but I'm not 100% confident about who they like most. I'm going with Will Campbell as the safe pick, but they might prefer "workout warrior," Armand Membou who could potentially play multiple positions.

Penn State

It's no longer a piece of wisdom to avoid drafting a TE in the top 10. We've seen what a player like Brock Bowers can do for a struggling offense.

There's been a lot of talk about how new HC, Aaron Glenn is running a tight ship and wants to focus on improving the culture. This tells me that New York won't necessarily draft for immediate roster needs. Tyler Warren would be a great "culture guy" for what Glenn is trying to build. Additionally, Warren has a huge frame and catches everything. He simply carried Penn State's offense at times in a loaded Big Ten.

New York could address either side of the line with this pick, but the prospects at this spot don't give amazing value. I'll predict the Jets go with a best player available approach.

Georgia

I've been mocking Walker to Carolina for months now. It seems that many other draft analysts are now doing the same. Walker is a bit raw and maybe undersized, which adds question marks around his ability to help in the run game. But I remember when the Seahawks shocked everyone by drafting Bruce Irvin-- a similar kind of prospect in a similar situation-- and that worked out well for them.

Carolina has some really good pieces all over their roster. The whole young core appears to be a well of untapped potential. Thus, I don't think Walker will scare them off. Plus, there has been a good track record recently of teams drafting Georgia defensive lineman.

Walker will help Derrick Brown and JaDeveon Clowney in the pass rush.

Georgia

The Saints are one of the most confusing teams to predict-- both in terms of offseason action, and regular season performance. It seems like the front office continues to believe that it is just a few pieces away from Super Bowl contention. The moves they have made since Drew Brees retired suggests that they aren't willing to go into a complete rebuild. They paid big money for Justin Reid and might have overpaid for Chase Young. They also seem completely unfazed by holding onto Alvin Kamara's contract.

As it stands, New Orleans has many needs all over the roster. With the recent Derek Carr injury news, this has also thrust them into the conversation for a QB. I don't think they'll go that route here. As with the Panthers, I've been mocking Mykel Williams-- another Georgia pass rusher-- to the Saints for a while.

Williams has great length and appears to be a plug-and-play starter on day one. There are some injury concerns here, but I think this would be a solid pick to ultimately replace Cameron Jordan.

Missouri

The Bears made all kinds of big moves in free agency. The biggest, perhaps, was addressing their porous interior offensive line. I think they'll continue to address the offensive line here and select Armand Membou.

Funny enough, both "tackle" options here-- Membou and Banks-- might project as guards in the NFL. But I suspect they can give him a shot at either tackle spot (and maybe move Darnell Wright back to LT), and then slide him to guard once Joe Thuney moves on.

This is something of a luxury pick given that Chicago looks good on paper going into next season. FWIW, I also thought about putting Colston Loveland here, but Kmet is an okay option at TE, and it might be early for Loveland.

Texas

The current San Francisco regime always strikes me as a highly adventurous and creative draft machine. They tend to draft for system fit and don't necessarily select the "intuitive" option that fills an immediate need.

The 49ers were decimated by injuries last year and a handful of players from their Super Bowl run a couple years ago have moved on. This has left them with more holes than usual on the depth chart. I could see San Francisco going in multiple directions with this pick. The most obvious need is on the offensive line, and given Kyle Shanahan's run-game genius, I could see them liking a versatile lineman like Kelvin Banks Jr.

I also think this would be a fantastic landing spot for Kenneth Grant, as the 49ers now have a need for interior defensive lineman as well. It wouldn't surprise me if they pick Grant here.

Arizona

For the longest time, I had been assuming that Ashton Jeanty would fall to Dallas, and that Jerry Jones would waste no time selecting him. That's no longer an option (and I'm now less confident now that Jones would select Jeanty, anyway).

It appears that Dallas is going to ride Dak Prescott until the wheels fall off. We've seen that when Dak has a solid offensive line and weapons, that he can be a lethal QB (I'm an Eagles fan, and I still think Dak should have won MVP over Lamar a couple years ago).

Therefore, I think Jerry and Brian Schottenheimer select the best receiver in this class. There was a time that McMillan was a projected top-5 prospect. But a dip in production at Arizona last season, as well as some concerns with his ability to separate from defensive backs have kicked him back a little. Still, McMillan's floor is probably a top-tier #2 receiver, and that's exactly what he'd be across from CeeDee Lamb.

McMillan has a great frame, good route-running ability, and good hands.

Georgia

The Dolphins' defense has been terrible ever since Mike McDaniel took over as head coach. They have also been hurt over the past two offseasons with Christian Wilkins and Jevon Holland leaving.

Particularly, Miami has struggled mightily to defend the pass, which is a recipe for failure in today's NFL. Now with the news that Jalen Ramsey is likely to be traded, I think the Dolphins have to address their secondary. In my view, there are three options here: Malaki Starks, Nick Emmanwori, and Will Johnson.

Starks and Johnson were both projected top-10 picks coming into the season, but have fallen for various reasons. I'm settling on Starks. I've seen conflicting reports about his abilities, with some suggesting that he'd be better in run support and short-field coverage, though others see him as a complete safety prospect.

I think Starks is highly versatile and has all-pro safety written all over him. Plus, he's a Georgia defender, which, as I mentioned, has worked well for many teams in recent history.

Michigan

The Colts are in a weird spot, both literally in terms of draft position, but also with their QB's development. There were reports that the Colts love Tyler Booker, but that they are unsure whether they would want to select at guard at #14. Maybe this is a trade destination for another team, but I don't think the value is great for teams trying to trade up.

I think Booker would be a pretty wise pick here, but I'm mocking Colston Loveland to Indy. They would jump at selecting Tyler Warren if was available, and I think Loveland is the better pass-catcher (but he's not as complete as Warren). The idea here would be to give Anthony Richardson a safety valve over the middle, especially given his propensity to favor throwing to short routes and check-downs.

Texas A&M

Arthur Blank loves drafting flashy, big-name players-- especially at skill positions. That isn't really an option here. Everyone keeps hammering it home that the Falcons *must* address the pass rush (and they're right) given that they neglected to do so in the draft and free agency last year. That decision served them poorly, so I'll predict that Atlanta targets an edge rusher here.

The question is which one they like the most. I'm not really sure. Shemar Stewart showed out at the combine and is an athletic freak. That kind of allows Blank to discharge his urge to draft flashy players, while getting a position of need.

I'll also note Charlie Campbell's report that the Falcons really like Jihaad Campbell, so maybe he'll be the pick here.

Michigan

I think this is the natural spot for Kenneth Grant. I believe that when it's all said and done, Grant could well be the best player from this first round. He's a truly complete DT prospect with size, strength, speed, and technique. Perhaps he was "overshadowed" by Mason Graham at Michigan, but this fits an important position of need by Arizona. I've also been mocking Grant to Arizona for a while, so I'll stick with it.

Will Johnson-- another Michigan defender-- is an option here.