Ohio State

Welcome to my mock draft. I've usually done 3-4 by now, but I had extensive issues logging into Debacled WF. Anyway, I'm back - for better or worse. Previous track record below (based off player picked by correct team, due to trade movement). Links were broken so I removed, but they're on the site pre-debacled.

2020 - 6
2021 - 12
2022 - 8

Since the combine, the Panthers made the (not so) shocking move to No. 1 overall. Obviously, they are targeting a quarterback and some believe it’s between CJ Stroud and Anthony Richardson. Although I think Bryce Young is QB1 in this class, I’m also very high on Stroud and balancing out tape, size, athleticism and throwing ability, Stroud does has a case to go No. 1 overall. This fit makes sense if you consider new HC Frank Reich’s scheme and prototypical preferences at QB.

If it is between these two players, the Panthers would be foolish to not decide on CJ Stroud. He isn’t an elite athlete, but is a more than component one and was incredible to both close ‘22 and at the combine. Stroud is deadly accurate, poised in the pocket, makes good decisions and impressed rising to the occasion last year, with an elite bowl game performance against eventual champions Georgia. He was spoiled with immense protection and receiving weapons, but he isn't to blame for the riches he was given. Aside from Bryce Young, I see no valid argument placing any other QB over Stroud when you balance athletic upside with tape and NFL-projectable passing ability.

Alabama

If the above report is true, the Texans get lucky and draft the presumptive No. 1 QB prospect. Bryce Young’s size concerns are an issue, but I tend to lean towards other elite physical/cognitive traits being enough to overcome this. In these regards, Young is the complete package. A terrific passer with elite pocket awareness, great athleticism, speed and evasiveness, Young is capable of making any throw you want, as well as being able to make the yards on the ground. Size be damned, Young is going to be a top-5 pick

Alabama

The Cardinals - presuming they do not move down - will most likely default to the best defensive prospect available now as they approach a near-complete rebuild on both sides of the ball. They have needs all over their defense; perhaps most pertinently, they need significant support amongst their front-seven. Jalen Carter was once considered a top-5 "lock", but the top-10 is no longer a sure thing thanks to his off-field issues but also poor team interviews and abysmal pro day. Since the combine, it’s been reported the Cardinals would prefer to trade down, but would like Anderson Jr. or Wilson if they stick and pick.

Wilson vs. Anderson reminds me a bit of Walker vs. Hutchinson last year. The media is slightly higher on Anderson than NFL teams are, but Anderson is still one of my favorite players in the class and was amongst the best pure football players in this draft class, irrespective of position. Anderson’s tape was truly stellar, and figures to be a double-digit sack producer in the NFL. With a new regime needing talent at blue-chip positions, I’d expect Arizona to play it reasonably safe here (if they do not move down). Anderson seems like a player likely to warrant a lucrative 2nd contract in 4 years time.

Florida

The Colts’ plan in the 2023 NFL draft is simple - they need to draft a franchise QB. Their need is so apparent they were the presumed favorites to trade up to the No. 1 overall pick; however, Carolina beat them to it. In this no-trade mock, they miss out on the consensus top-2 signal callers. However, they still have options, and go with a risky one at No. 4 overall.

Anthony Richardson is an enigma. His college tape was not that of a 1st rounder, being borderline terrible as a passer at times. Equally, he has one of the best physical skill-sets we’ve seen at the QB position in years. He is raw, and has some bad tape, but also made some truly exceptional throws at Florida and was elite in certain contests. He’s also an exceptional runner and has terrific arm talent. Just based on skill-set and the premium status of the QB position alone, I can’t see Richardson escaping the top-10, even if he’s a huge project for the NFL, given the desperation around the NFL for better QB play.

If I was the Colts, I would be pretty aggressive in going for Lamar Jackson considering how risky Richardson and Levis are. They have a good cap situation without many huge contracts (Buckner and Leonard are the only two that come to mind, and either/or could be traded). They have a great running back and two great young receivers in Alec Pierce and Michael Pittman Jr. They need to re-tool their offensive line, but have the best guard in the NFL. He'd be worth the multi-1st round pick trade.

Texas Tech

Pete Caroll has hinted the team will look over the QB class, which makes sense, but post-Carolina trade, it seems all but certain they would get left with QB4, and unless that happens to be the QB Seattle want, I imagine they roll with Geno Smith’s team-friendly deal for ‘23 and hope he remains a quality starter. Meanwhile, the Seahawks’ defense fell apart in the back end of the year. Their run defense was abysmal, and their pass rush - whilst not anemic lacked immense firepower. They added Dre’Mont Jones and some upside options such as Julian Love and Devin Bush in free agency, but could really do with an alpha franchise pass rusher. Jalen Carter is commonly mocked here, but he feels too risky for a Seahawks team who seems to be prioritizing character more than in years past.

Tyree Wilson is an incredible athlete with great length, speed and explosion and at this stage feels destined to be a top-10 pick. In fact, a couple of people have surmised he could go over presumed EDGE 1 Will Anderson Jr., with reports that some teams prefer Wilson over Anderson Jr. Tyree Wilson would be a great fit as an athletic, versatile defensive end who can play hands in the dirt, as a 3-tech in 4-3 defense situationally (if not drafted by Seattle), or even as a 3-4 OLB.

Texas

The Lions are very difficult to mock. The Lions’ high-character front office are likely out on Jalen Carter, will probably miss out on Anderson/Wilson, and have a much better post-FA secondary after Emmanuel Moseley, CJ Gardner-Johnson, Jeff Okudah, Cameron Sutton, Tracy Walker and Kerby Joseph is a pretty strong on-paper unit. The unit doesn't preclude them from taking Gonzalez/Witherspoon as their "lockdown" cornerback and trading Okudah, but Okudah showed a bit more potential last year. Either way, I think they could look to draft CB a bit later than some suspect.

For a long-time, I’ve placed Bijan Robinson here. I think he’d be a beautiful fit in Detroit, and he’s the best player in the draft, so I'm circling back to that pick. I also see a feasible scenario where Detroit moves down a couple of spots and selects Bijan. It is true that Bijan could slide, as he plays running back, which has suffered severe degradation in draft value in recent years. The Lions also signed David Montgomery to a 3-year pact, which could take the onus off it as a huge priority early. However, Bijan is just built different. He's the only player in this class that teams have an elite grade on according to Charlie Campbell, and although the term gets thrown around a lot, Bijan truly is generational. Teams are enamored with him, and I believe he has a higher ceiling than Saquon Barkley and Christian McCaffrey.

Despite his position, I'm skeptical he'll slide too far. Like Kyle Pitts, he's just a freakish prospect with a high floor and immeasurable ceiling, and could take this already electric offense to the next level.

Oregon

Although Jimmy Garoppolo by no means precludes the Raiders from drafting a QB, I’m not convinced they’d settle for whomever is left out of the top-4 QB prospects. I have serious doubts over Levis at the next level, and think the media is overrating him - they also reportedly prefer Anthony Richardson. If he is available, I expect Richardson to be the pick. Otherwise, they could do with a longer-term upgrade at RT and kick Elemanour in to guard, or take a cornerback. Given that the talent is roughly equatable at the top-end, and how dire their secondary is beyond Nate Hobbs in a division with Mahomes and Herbert, I think they could look to take a shut-down corner.

I actually have Devon Witherspoon a touch ahead of Gonzalez as CB1 on my big board due to his elite tape, but Gonzalez is a the more rounded cornerback between the top-3 of himself, Witherspoon and Penn State’s Joey Porter Jr. when considering athleticism and tape. Gonzalez himself was exceptional in ‘22 and addressed many questions teams had of him such as ball skills and consistency. Gonzalez is seen by teams as a likely candidate to break out at the combine, and he dominated it. I think Gonzalez is a sure-fire top-14 pick and probably first CB taken due to his athleticism.

Illinois

The Falcons have had the worst pass rush in the NFL for a couple of years. However, based on the elite CB talent available, as well as the relative depth of Day 2 pass rushers, they would be foolish to force the position here. Instead, I have them taking Devon Witherspoon to lockdown their secondary alongside AJ Terrell.

Witherspoon is my CB1, over even Christian Gonzalez, but I have a feeling he may go as the 2nd or even 3rd CB off the board due to perceived size concerns, also not ignoring Charlie's report that he could be more of a mid 1st rounder. However, on tape, Witherspoon screams “instant star” similar to Sauce Gardner in ‘22 who went No. 4 overall to the New York Jets, and still think he could break the top-10.

Georgia

The Bears did a tremendous job trading down. However, what they do here is now a true enigma. It was a foregone conclusion Jalen Carter would be out of their range, but recent legal issues and a bad pre-draft process will likely see him slide. Is Carter’s upside worth the risk at No. 9? I certainly think so, but Chicago may look for a better cultural fit, or someone at a more premium position. Considering they’ve traded down with multiple top-64 capital in this draft and the next, I think the Bears take their big swing here.

Carter is a special IDL talent with NFL-pass rushing upside, immense run stopping ability and could be a seamless 3-tech fit in Eberflus' 4-3 defensive scheme. I have real reservations about his reported work ethic issues and alarming lack of production at college given his talent level, but said talent is visible to anyone with a moderate knowledge of the sport. Carter is a beastly talent, and the Bears are 1-2 years away from being competitive, so given Carter’s higher upside, the depth of this EDGE class, and the vast chasm between himself and other DT prospects - pro day be damned - I’d love this fit for Chicago.

3 April 2023 Update: Some interesting reports. Charlie Campbell recently reported the following:

"WalterFootball.com spoke with sources from two other teams picking in the top 10 that need help at defensive tackle, and they said that Carter is getting pulled off their draft boards as well".

On top of the Las Vegas report, and the fact that Carter is having top-30 reports with Chicago and Philadelphia, I'm pretty sure that the reported teams are two of Seattle, Detroit and Atlanta. Detroit have a huge character focus presently, and Atlanta recently signed Calais Campbell - plus run 3-4 - so my guess is Carter will either go Seattle at No. 5 (although they also run 3-4), Chicago at No. 9 or Philadelphia at No. 10. I would be surprised if Seattle took a risk with Carter at No. 5 if Anderson and/or Wilson are on the board, so I think Carter is most likely to go to the Bears or Eagles, unless they also drop him.

His agent is reportedly declining any visits outside the top-10. Interesting situation, but I'm starting to get bullish on Chicago as a fit.

Iowa

Since their 2017 Super Bowl victory, the Eagles have only drafted OL, DL or WR in Round 1 (trading further picks for another WR). They have clear early-round priorities, and RB isn't one of them. Given their need for future pass rush talent after their free agency exodus, I expect they will stick to the script. CB was a commonly mocked alternative, but with their elite outside duo of Darius Slay and James Bradbury being retained through 2025, I think they’ll address their remaining slot CB later in the draft.

In my opinion, Lukas Van Ness is the defensive equivalent of Anthony Richardson - although more due to limited tape than bad. He really didn’t play much as a starter at Iowa, and showed flashes more than consistent dominance. However, I think he will settle as a top-20 pick due to his elite physical skill-set and versatility. Van Ness could be a terrific 3-4 pass rushing 5-tech, but I also like him as a 4-3 base end. Hassan Reddick, Josh Sweat, Lukas Van Ness and Brandon Graham would keep their elite pass rush rolling for 2023.

Northwestern

The Titans jettisoned a hefty amount of their roster, and are my early favorites to land the No. 1 overall pick in the 2024 draft. They thus have a plethora of needs. Most pertinent is their future plan at QB, WR and their OL. Specifically, they already had one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL, and their sole bright spot - Nate Davis - departing for the Bears in free agency. The Titans should be in BPA mode for this draft, and although I think they are dark horses to take a QB, I'm not sure they'd settle for Will Levis given the state of their roster.

Skoronski is my 5th rated player, with elite pass protecting ability and a very high floor entering the NFL. The main question is whether he can hold up at tackle given his short arms, or if he will need to kick inside to guard? For the Titans, they could really try him anywhere they deem best. Like Alijah Vera-Tucker, Skoronski may be “just” a guard or right tackle for the NFL due to his measurables. However, he’ll likely be incredible at either spot.

Ohio State

Multiple reports suggest that the Texans are picking a receiver at No. 12. That makes a ton of sense, as their receiving corps is full of No. 2, 3 and 4 options without any bonafide No. 1 talents. What is somewhat more surprising is the report that Houston is down to Jaxon Smith-Njigba or Jordan Addison, not Quentin Johnston. I'm skeptical, but I'll bite for now. Johnston's stock is interesting because some - Charlie Campbell, PFF - are exceptionally high on him, and others have him as their 4th receiver. I fall into the former camp myself, and also trust Charlie over anyone else. Equally, there haven't been any reports on Houston's plans yet, and this would match their thinking last year - they took the consensus CB 2 over CB 1 but one who had 1 year of great tape and was a stellar scheme fit.

For me, Jaxon Smith-Njigba doesn’t have the athletic profile to be a shoe-in top-10 pick, and only has 1 season of real tape. However, I couldn't be too harsh because what a season that was. In ‘21, he was the Buckeyes’ most productive receiver, alongside future NFL stars Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave. Based on how Shanahan-esque Slowik's offense will be, I think JSN could be a better fit than Addison, so I think Smith-Njigba would be a fine choice, but I'd still take a couple of other options over him.

Ohio State

The Jets are a huge question mark. Will they even hold onto this pick? That's seeming increasingly likely, with reports that the Packers would settle for Day 2 compensation. For now, presuming the Jets stick and pick, they need better linebacker and safety play. Equally, they also need to insure their offensive line, which always seems better on paper than in practise since Joe Douglas came in as GM. Mekhi Becton's promising rookie season seems so long ago, as he's been out with injury in the two years since. He appears in good shape now, but has a history of weight issues. On the other side, Duane Brown will be 38 at the start of next season. It wouldn't shock me if the Jets kicked the OT can down the road and gave Becton one more chance, but to me, it would seem prudent to draft a long-term viable LT, considering the mocked prospect also has guard versatility if they want to move Alijah Vera-Tucker to the RT spot.

This would be a relative steal. Johnson Jr. lived up to the pre-season hype in ‘22 delivering an almost flawless season blocking for CJ Stroud. Johnson doesn’t quite have the tape of Peter Skoronski, but is a more prototypical Left Tackle in terms of size and traits, so could be the first offensive lineman taken even if Skoronski is one of the best pure football players in this draft class.

TCU

I always cringe a bit when mocking a receiver to the Patriots, as it's seldom gone well. However, they have a very clear and obvious need the position, even after signing JuJu Smith-Schuster (who is really more of a mid-No. 2). The Patriots need to address their offensive line, but I’m cooler on the OT options beyond Skoronski and Johnson this high up the draft. Meanwhile, there is a bonafide WR1 prospect available to give Mac Jones a true receiving weapon entering his crucial 3rd year.

Quentin Johnston, who different outlets seem to either love as a top-12 prospective or dismiss as a borderline 1st rounder, is my WR1 still. Johnston has by far the best physical traits for a future WR1 in this draft in my opinion. Scouts reportedly are raving about Johnson’s physical and mental ability. He needs to be more consistent, but if he plays to his skill-set, Johnston can be an elite NFL receiver.

Clemson

Several people are mocking the Packers wide receiver or tight end, but I would be surprised if they went in that direction. This front office’s M.O. is to draft defense on Thursday night, and skill positions on Day 2. With the wealth of Tight End talent in this class, they’ll likely come out with a top-5 TE in this good class at the position with the 45th overall pick in Round 2. Watson/Doubs also need a bit of room to breathe and develop, with both impressing by the back-half of their respective rookie seasons. Meanwhile, outside of Rashan Gary and Preston Smith (the former coming off an ACL tear; the latter more of a rotational edge rusher), the Packers need pass rushing help badly.

Myles Murphy fits the athletic and size profile that Green Bay covets, and is a ridiculous athlete with scheme/line versatility. There is no doubt he has a top-10 skill-set. However, Murphy is a love/hate prospect amongst NFL personnel due to his use (or lack thereof) of his power, and the recent trend of Clemson edge rushers failing at the next level. It’ll be interesting to see where he ends up.

Penn State

The Commanders break the Steelers’ nostalgic hearts by taking the son of former Steelers-great Joey Porter one pick prior to them being on the board. The Commanders feel destined to take the best CB available with this pick, and Porter Jr. is a quality, high-floor 1st round CB prospect.

Porter is instinctive and does a stellar job at avoiding separation from wide receivers, also possessing freakish length. Holding him back from the top-2 CB’s of Gonzalez and Witherspoon is lesser athleticism, but Porter is not a sub-par athlete by any means; just not an elite one. Either way, Porter seems destined to be a top-20 pick come April.