Alabama

Welcome to my final mock draft for 2023. This may go through some minor tweaks right up until the morning of the draft.

Previous track record below. Links were broken so I removed them, but they're on the site pre-debacled era.

2020 - 6
2021 - 12
2022 - 8

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I will probably grade my mock this year by Method 1 and Method 2, and publish both answers post-draft

Method 1: Player mocked to correct team in Round 1, correct with trade up or trade down (Example - Detroit takes Bijan Robinson after trading down to No. 8 with the Atlanta Falcons would still be correct. Bijan Robinson drafted at No. 6 to Atlanta Falcons after trading up would be incorrect ).

Method 2: Right player to right pick pick selection, irrespective of team (Example - Detroit Lions trade down and Bijan Robinson goes No. 6 to whomever they trade with.

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Mock Draft V3 Pick: Bryce Young (QB, Alabama)
Mock Draft V2 Pick: Bryce Young (QB, Alabama)
Mock Draft V1 Pick: CJ Stroud (QB, Ohio State)

This pick is looking close to a lock at this point, and to me is the correct decision. Young's size concerns are legitimate, but he’s an outlier in the right way in virtually every other category. I tend to lean towards other elite physical/cognitive traits being enough to overcome this, and in these regards, Young is the complete package. A terrific passer with elite pocket awareness, great athleticism, speed and evasiveness, Young is capable of making any throw you want, as well as being able to make the yards on the ground. He appears to be the definition of cerebral, too. Size be damned, Young is going to be a top-5 pick, and still my favorite to go No. 1 overall.

Other Options:

CJ Stroud (QB, Ohio State) - Logic would dictate its down to these two. Heavy lean towards Bryce Young at this stage.

Alabama

Mock Draft V3 Pick: CJ Stroud (QB, Ohio State)
Mock Draft V2 Pick: CJ Stroud (QB, Ohio State)
Mock Draft V1 Pick: Bryce Young (QB, Alabama)

I really hope I’m not falling victim to a media echo chamber here, like the 49ers’ No. 3 overall pick in 2021 (fortunately, I settled on Lance in my final mock). However, the noise is now booming that the Texans will pass on a QB at No. 2.

To be clear, any player aside from CJ Stroud - or a “Draft Day” style move up from No. 12 to the top-10 for Anthony Richardson or Will Levis - would be an F-grade. I’ll be waiting until the end of the 1st round to grade the 1st round, and see what materializes on this basis. CJ Stroud reportedly didn’t do well on his S2 test, but his tape is exceptional and still feels like the clear-cut No. 2 QB to me still.

The Texans not taking a quarterback in the 1st round would be insanity for several reasons:

1) You should not pass up on a franchise QB if one is available for a non-elite player, and a franchise-caliber quarterback is certainly available in Stroud. My 49ers found this out the hard way in 2017. The Texans could perhaps argue that Richardson/Levis is that guy, but they know now that they cannot proceed with Davis Mills at quarterback. I am perhaps in a minority here, but people are talking about Will Anderson Jr. as the second coming of Christ. I think he'll make an impact early, but I personally don't view Will Anderson in the same echelon as Nick Bosa and Myles Garrett - a player who is worth passing a high-trait franchise QB for.

2) You can never guarantee you can target a certain player in the next class. Will you be bad enough? Will a divisional rival block you from realistic trade options (the Titans and Colts are due to be bad in 2023, and one could miss out on a quarterback)? Will they regress, or have off-field issues? If you have a shot at a franchise QB and desperately need one, you should take him - risk be damned. If you don’t,you are relying on luck and a plethora of variables you cannot control.

3) The Texans’ OL is above average. It’s not perfect by any means, but their rookie would not be fed to the wolves the second they stop on the field, and they can add to their OL/receiving group in this draft. Short of unprecedented regression, they aren’t in the spot the Titans are in where their future QB will be sacked 70+ times in their rookie season.

4) The Texans wouldn’t be ruined for a decade if they miss this evaluation. Although it would be disappointing, they wouldn’t be trading the farm. In the modern NFL, teams seem to generally be able to accept any sunken cost within 1-2 years at the QB position these days. The Cardinals with Josh Rosen, and Jets presently with Zach Wilson, have proven this. I strongly believe it wouldn't set their franchise back 5 years if they do make the wrong call.

Excluding the above, Will Anderson Jr. is a pretty safe bet to be a quality NFL player for the next several years. Tyree Wilson and Will Anderson Jr. reminds me a bit of Walker vs. Hutchinson last year - Wilson is more athletic and versatile, but Anderson Jr. is the more accomplished college player. The media is slightly higher on Anderson than NFL teams are according to Charlie Campbell, but Anderson is still one of my favorite players in the class who figures to be a double-digit sack producer in the NFL. However, I cannot justify him over a QB.

Other Options:

CJ Stroud (QB, Ohio State) - The only logical choice, should Bryce Young be off the board.

Trade Down - If the Texans are doing this, move down for something at least.

Texas Tech

Mock Draft V2 Pick: Tyree Wilson (EDGE, Texas Tech)
Mock Draft V1 Pick: Will Anderson Jr. (EDGE, Alabama)

Right now, it appears the Cardinals could trade down with this pick, but I’m not going to bite - yet. The closer we get, the more I think teams won’t jump to get a QB not named Bryce Young. Additionally, the earliest any pick has been traded during the draft since 2019 is 10th overall (in 2019, and again in 2021). Trades are generally over-done in mock drafts, and come draft day, usually the top-10 stays pretty much as expected going in. I personally believe that the Cardinals may not end up getting a suitor, much like Detroit didn’t in 2020. For now, I’m sticking with Arizona staying at No. 3, and they reportedly prefer Tyree Wilson to Will Anderson Jr. In this mock, that shockingly doesn’t matter, thanks to Houston.

Tyree Wilson is an incredible athlete with great length, speed and explosion and at this stage feels destined to be a top-10 pick. In fact, a couple of people have surmised he could go over presumed EDGE 1 Will Anderson Jr., with reports that some teams prefer Wilson over Anderson Jr. Tyree Wilson would be a great fit as an athletic, versatile defensive end who can play hands in the dirt, as a 3-tech in 4-3 defense situationally (if not drafted by Seattle), or even as a 3-4 OLB, although that’s less desirable.

Tyree Wilson is an incredible athlete with great length, speed and explosion and at this stage feels destined to be a top-10 pick. In fact, a couple of people have surmised he could go over presumed EDGE 1 Will Anderson Jr., with reports that some teams prefer Wilson over Anderson Jr. Tyree Wilson would be a great fit as an athletic, versatile defensive end who can play hands in the dirt, as a 3-tech in 4-3 defense situationally, or even as a 3-4 OLB, although I don’t love that fit.

Other Options:
Will Anderson Jr. (EDGE, Alabama), Lukas Van Ness (EDGE, Iowa) - Anderson is probably the safer option of the two and would be my pick. Van Ness would be a target after trade down, not at No. 3.

Devon Witherspoon (CB, Illinois), Christian Gonzalez (CB, Oregon), Joey Porter Jr. (CB, Penn State) - Some CB targets if the Cardinals move down 6-10 spots.

Ohio State

Mock Draft V3 Pick: Anthony Richardson (QB, Florida)
Mock Draft V2 Pick: Anthony Richardson (QB, Florida)
Mock Draft V1 Pick: Anthony Richardson (QB, Florida)

The Colts’ plan in the 2023 NFL draft is simple - they need to draft a franchise QB. The problem is that there are a lot of reports that the Cardinals could trade out of No. 3 - this might be even more plausible if Houston does pass on a QB. Indianapolis would come away laughing in this scenario and have their pick of the litter at No. 4 (besides Bryce Young).

C.J. Stroud reportedly did rather badly on his S2 test (18%, and 8th in this QB cycle). Whilst I understand the cause for concern, it doesn’t change what you see on film. Quality pass arsenal, good processing, reactive quickness, and improved showings under pressure. He was spoiled with immense protection and receiving weapons, but he isn't to blame for the riches he was given - only if he didn’t execute them. Aside from Bryce Young, I see no valid argument placing any other QB over Stroud when you balance athletic upside with tape and NFL-projectable passing ability.

Other Options:

Anthony Richardson (QB, Florida), Will Levis (QB, Kentucky) - Two other options. I’ve heard rumblings of the Colts like Levis, but I could see Shane Steichen seeing Anthony Richardson’s skill-set moldable like Jalen Hurts’ was.

Georgia

Mock Draft V3 Pick: Jalen Carter (DT, Georgia)
Mock Draft V2 Pick: Will Anderson (EDGE, Alabama)
Mock Draft V1 Pick: Tyree Wilson (EDGE, Texas Tech)

I think I’m going to settle on Jalen Carter to Seattle unless Charlie reports something in the coming days. The fit makes sense, they have the draft capital to take more of risk than other teams picking early, and have several people reporting the connection - Tony Pauline specifically said that from what he’s hearing, team’s aren’t expecting Seattle to pass on him.

The Seahawks’ defense fell apart in the back end of the year. Their run defense was abysmal, and their pass rush - whilst not anemic lacked immense firepower. Carter is no doubt a risk - I have real reservations about his reported work ethic issues, and his alarming lack of production at college given his talent level. Equally, his ability is visible to anyone with a moderate knowledge of the sport. Some of Carter’s high moments are beyond impressive, and he can just do things others can’t. His skill-set is rare. Carter is a special IDL prospect with NFL-pass rushing upside, immense run stopping ability and could be a seamless 3-tech fit in a 4-3 defensive scheme, or a quality 3-4 heavy-built defensive end.

Whether it’s here or elsewhere in the top-10, the pendulum seems to have swung back and my gut feeling that Carter may not slide that far.

Other Options:

Tyree Wilson (EDGE, Texas Tech, Will Anderson Jr. (EDGE, Alabama) - If the Texans rumors are true, both are probably top-3 draft choices without trade downs.

Devon Witherspoon (CB, Illinois) - The Seahawks reportedly like Devon Witherspoon. If Seattle isn't sold on Carter’s character, and Wilson/Anderson Jr. are off the board, I think their backup option is Witherspoon.

Anthony Richardson (QB, Florida) - The Seahawks could entertain Richardson as a 1-2 year project behind Geno Smith.

Texas

Mock Draft V2 Pick: Will Anderson Jr. (EDGE, Alabama)
Mock Draft V2 Pick: Devon Witherspoon (CB, Illinois)
Mock Draft V1 Pick: Bijan Robinson (RB, Texas)

The current regime of the Lions have done a text-book job in building a competitive team, and one of the best rosters in the NFC now. A lot of this is due to their trust in the draft board, not panicking, and banking on premium positions early (Penei Sewell in 2021, Aidan Hutchinson in 2022). The safest prediction here is probably Devon Witherspoon on this basis, as he feels a cultural fit that also would finish off that secondary, but this is a deep CB class without a true CB1 consensus. Meanwhile, positional value devalues running backs in the modern NFL, and there are financial arguments why the Lions shouldn’t do this. However, Bijan Robinson is a special prospect, and the consensus best player in this draft class based on Charlie's reporting. He feels like the type of player who could tempt a front office away from their typical M.O., and I think he will go a lot higher than is currently being mocked even as a running back.

For a long-time, I’ve placed Bijan Robinson here. I think he’d be a beautiful fit in Detroit. I also see a feasible scenario where Detroit moves down a couple of spots and selects Bijan. I appreciate he’s a running back, but he's the only player in this class that teams have an elite grade on according to Charlie Campbell, and although the term gets thrown around a lot, Bijan truly is generational. Teams are enamored with him, and some believe he has a higher ceiling than Saquon Barkley, Ezekiel Elliott and Christian McCaffrey. Despite his position, I'm skeptical he'll slide too far. Like Kyle Pitts, he's just a freakish prospect with a high floor and immeasurable ceiling, and could take this already electric offense to the next level. For the Lions specifically, don’t be fooled by free agency. They signed David Montgomery to a 3-year pact, but as Walt/Charlie astutely put it, he’s to replace Jamaal Williams and not a true No. 1 back. D’Andre Swift has largely been a disappointment, and David Montgomery is not a true RB1. Bijan would make the Lions’ offense practically unstoppable, as a force on the ground and being a huge passing game asset close to that of a No. 2 receiver.

Other Options:

Devon Witherspoon (CB, Illinois), Christian Gonzalez (CB, Oregon) - IDevon Witherspoon could very well be the pick. Some also connect Gonzalez to Detroit.

Tyree Wilson (EDGE, Texas Tech), Will Anderson Jr. (EDGE, Alabama) - This is the floor for either/or player if Houston passes on a QB. If they do not, one could feasibly make it here. Wilson is probably more likely to slide here than Anderson.

Jalen Carter (DT, Georgia) - Carter doesn’t feel like a character fit with Detroit, but perhaps he’s just too talented to pass up if Carter is here.

Illinois

Mock Draft V1 Pick: Devon Witherspoon (CB, Illinois)
Mock Draft V2 Pick: Christian Gonzalez (CB, Oregon)
Mock Draft V1 Pick: Christian Gonzalez (CB, Oregon)

Although Jimmy Garoppolo by no means precludes the Raiders from drafting a QB, I’m not convinced they’d settle for whomever is left out of the top-4 QB prospects. Anthony RIchardson is here, which gives me pause for thought, but the Raiders appear to be opting for the “win now” approach by signing Jimmy Garoppolo to a 3-year pact. If this is the case, they could do with a longer-term upgrade at RT and kick Elemanour into guard, or take a cornerback. Given that the talent is roughly equatable at the top-end, and how dire their secondary is beyond Nate Hobbs in a division with Mahomes and Herbert, I think they could look to take a shut-down corner.

Witherspoon is my CB1, over even Christian Gonzalez who appears to be most people’s CB1. It’s plausible Witherspoon could go 2nd or even 3rd CB off the board due to perceived size concerns, but on tape, Witherspoon screams “instant star” similar to Sauce Gardner in ‘22 who went No. 4 overall to the New York Jets. he may not be quite that level of talent, but Witherspoon feels like a candidate to be a top-tier NFL defender early in his career.

Other Options:

Christian Gonzalez (CB, Illinois) - I’d be 55/45 on who the Raiders would take if either/or is available, with a slight lean to Witherspoon.

Anthony Richardson (QB, Florida) - Charlie reported the Raiders prefer RIchardson. He’s available…so do they make the plunge here? Gun to my head, no, but they could easily bank on his upside at this spot.

Paris Johnson (OT, Ohio State), Peter Skoronski (G/OT, Northwestern) - The Raiders’ OL exceeded expectations in 2022, but outside of Kolton Miller and maybe Dylan Parham, they still need upgrades. Specifically, a right tackle is on the cards. Jermaine Eluemunor re-signed and played well in ‘22, but is a journeyman player who can play guard.

Northwestern

Mock Draft V3 Pick: Peter Skoronski (G/OT, Northwestern)
Mock Draft V2 Pick: Lukas Van Ness (EDGE, Iowa)
Mock Draft V1 Pick: Devon Witherspoon (CB, Illinois)

The Falcons seem to have used free agency to bolster their pass rush with veterans. If Anderson Jr. or Wilson is available I absolutely believe either/or will be the pick - one of the top-2 corners is also seriously in play - but I think their FA decisions have been engineering into not forcing them to take a defender early if the right player isn’t available. Charlie Campbell similarly reported that the Falcons are keeping their options open at No. 8. Said report also said that the Falcons are pretty high on Skoronski, and I think he’s the best player available at this juncture. This would finish off the Falcons’ OL in a similar manner to the Lions with Penei Sewell 2 years ago, and presently, that pick is paying dividends for Detroit.

Skoronski is my 6th rated player, with elite pass protecting ability and a very high floor entering the NFL. The main question is whether he can hold up at tackle given his short arms, or if he will need to kick inside to guard? For the Falcons, he'd certainly start at guard, but could be the heir apparent to Jake Matthews in a couple of years. Like Alijah Vera-Tucker, Skoronski may be “just” a guard or right tackle for the NFL due to his measurables. However, he’ll likely be incredible there. He’d give the Falcons one of the best offensive lines in the NFL Day 1 and finish off an otherwise quality line, a bit like Penei Sewell to the Detroit Lions in 2021.

Other Options:

Tyree Wilson (EDGE, Texas Tech), Lukas Van Ness (EDGE, Iowa), Nolan Smith (EDGE, Georgia) - This is likely Wilson's floor. It's probably a 2/10 chance he escapes the top-7. Van Ness is also starting to come into his range, with this being his earliest feasible spot. I don’t like the Smith-Falcons connection this high in the draft that has been mocked commonly recently, as he’s more of a late 1st rounder in my opinion.

Christian Gonzalez (CB, Oregon), Devon Witherspoon (CB, Illinois) -The Okudah trade doesn’t preclude the Falcons from taking the right corner. He’s at best a long-shot reclamation project under contract for 1 year. Gonzalez has an excellent skill-set and could break the top-10.

Bijan Robinson (RB, Texas) - I love the Lions-Robinson fit slightly more, but the Falcons have utilized their first two 1st rounders under Fontenot on high upside skill position players, one being a Tight End at No. 4. Their draft philosophy tips the hand that if they like Robinson, they wouldn’t question taking him at No. 8. Tyler Allegier played really well, but Robinson is a can’t miss prospect.

Ohio State

Mock Draft V3 Pick: Paris Johnson Jr. (OT, Ohio State)
Mock Draft V2 Pick: Jalen Carter (DT, Georgia)
Mock Draft V1 Pick: Jalen Carter (DT, Georgia)

The Bears did a tremendous job trading down. However, what they do here is now a true enigma. Recent legal issues and a bad pre-draft process could Jalen Carter - their likely dream pick - slide. I’m starting to feel like this is Jalen Carter’s floor, or close to it, and have him gone in this mock for the first time in this year’s mocks I’ve done. If the top-3 defenders are gone, one would presume they’d look to bolster their offensive line. Their IOL is set, but they still have a big need at RT still, and it remains to be seen whether Braxton Jones can maintain his high-caliber level of play in ‘23.

Johnson Jr. lived up to the pre-season hype in ‘22 delivering an almost flawless season blocking for CJ Stroud. Johnson doesn’t quite have the tape of Peter Skoronski, but is a more prototypical Left Tackle in terms of size and traits, so could be the first offensive lineman taken even if Skoronski is one of the best pure football players in this draft class.

Other Options: Peter Skoronski (G/OT, Northwestern), Darnell Wright (OT, Tennessee) - I don't love the Skoronski fit unless they are certain he's a RT. Paris Johnson would be the better fit due to continuity with Fields and more OT certainty. Darnell Wright makes a lot of sense too. He’s rising fast, and he’s a plug and play RT.

Lukas Van Ness (EDGE, Iowa), Jalen Carter (DT, Georgia) - Carter is probably the pick if available. Van Ness also could be a good scheme fit, and the Bears desperately need help at defensive end.

Devon Witherspoon (CB, Illinois), Christian Gonzalez (CB, Oregon) - Despite two 2nd round secondary picks, their secondary is still a bit of a weakness still. Kyler Gordon wasn't good as a rookie.

Iowa

Mock Draft V3 Pick: Lukas Van Ness (EDGE, Iowa)
Mock Draft V2 Pick: Peter Skoronski (G/OT, Northwestern)
Mock Draft V1 Pick: Lukas Van Ness (EDGE, Iowa)

Since their 2017 Super Bowl victory, the Eagles have only drafted OL, DL or WR in Round 1 (trading further picks for another WR). They have clear early-round priorities, and it’s their trenches. Given their need for future pass rush talent after their free agency exodus, I expect they will stick to the script. My guess is that the Eagles would prefer to draft an offensive lineman at No. 10 (Skoronski seems like a tailor made fit), but both Johnson Jr. and Skoronski are gone in this mock. If Carter doesn’t fall to them, they may move down, as defensively, I think prospects like Nolan Smith, Calijah Kancey and Adetomiwa Adebawore are feasible options at No. 30. I

I don’t mock trades, so I will go with Lukas Van Ness for now. Charlie reported a few teams at the end of the top-10 were considering him, and Philadelphia makes sense as being one of them. Lukas Van Ness didn’t play much as a starter at Iowa, and showed flashes more than consistent dominance. However, I think he will settle as a top-16 pick due to his elite physical skill-set, high-end tape and versatility. Van Ness could be a terrific 3-4 pass rushing 5-tech, but I also like him as a 4-3 base end. Hassan Reddick, Josh Sweat, Lukas Van Ness and Brandon Graham would keep their elite pass rush rolling for 2023.

Other Options:
Peter Skoronski (G/OT, Northwestern), Paris Johnson Jr. (OT, Ohio State) - I absolutely love the fit of Skoronski and the Eagles if the top defenders are off the board. Cam Jurgens is commonly presumed the heir apparent to Isaac Suemalo, but he really is there for when Kelce retires. He's unexpectedly returned for another year, and whilst regrettable, many see him as a center only, so they’d be better redshirting Jurgens for another year and finding a guard who could one day replace Lane Johnson at Right Tackle. The above logic could theoretically apply to Johnson, too, although he profiles as an OT in the next level.

Jalen Carter (DT, Georgia), Lukas Van Ness (EDGE, Iowa) - Carter's floor is surely No. 10 to Philadelphia. I can't see them passing him up, concerns or not. Equally, this is also a good spot for Lukas Van Ness, who would be a quality 4-3 base end. He needs a year or so before fully starting, and would have the luxury of a rotational role with Philly.

Bijan Robinson (RB, Texas) - Howie Roseman almost certainly won’t do this, but it would be pretty much impossible to stop their offense if they do. Could they entertain trading down and taking Robinson, in spite of their M.O.?

Florida

Mock Draft V3 Pick: Will Levis (QB, Kentucky)
Mock Draft V2 Pick: Paris Johnson Jr. (OT, Ohio State)
Mock Draft V1 Pick: Peter Skoronski (G/OT, Northwestern)

The Titans jettisoned a hefty amount of their roster, and are my early favorites to land the No. 1 overall pick in the 2024 draft. They thus have a plethora of needs. The Titans should be in BPA mode for this draft, but are dark horses to take a QB. I think it would be buffoonish to give up the farm to move up to No. 3 given the state of the team, but at No. 11, taking a QB feels a lot more palatable. Given that the top-2 tackles are off the board, Anthony Richardson at No. 11 would be decent value.

Anthony Richardson is an enigma. His college tape was not that of a 1st rounder, being borderline terrible as a passer at times. Equally, he has one of the best physical skill-sets we’ve seen at the QB position in years. He is raw, and has some bad tape, but also made some truly exceptional throws at Florida and was elite in certain contests. He’s also an exceptional runner and has terrific arm talent. Just based on skill-set and the premium status of the QB position alone, I can’t see Richardson escaping the top-10, even if he’s a huge project for the NFL, given the desperation around the NFL for better QB play.

Other Options:
Will Levis (QB, Kentucky) - Richardson would be the better option, but Levis could be the last man standing. I hate the idea of Tennessee moving to No. 3 for both these flawed prospects, but I’d be fine with it at No. 11.

Peter Skoronski (OT/G, Northwestern), Paris Johnson Jr. (OT, Ohio State), Darnell Wright (OT, Tennessee) - The Titans arguably had the worst OL in the NFL last year. They need a franchise LT and multiple other OL upgrades. Not a single spot on their OL is safe going into ‘23. They could justify spending their first 2 choices on offensive lineman like the Colts did in ‘18.

Quentin Johnston (WR, TCU), Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR, Ohio State) - The Titans need more receivers beyond Burks. This is one of the weirdest WR drafts in recent memory. Some - like myself - wouldn’t hate Johnston as a top-10 selection; others don’t view him as a 1st rounder. The same goes for the other top-receivers.

Kentucky

Mock Draft V3 Pick: Jaxon-Smith Njigba (WR, Ohio State)
Mock Draft V2 Pick: Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR, Ohio State)
Mock Draft V1 Pick: Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR, Ohio State)

Multiple reports suggest that the Texans are picking a receiver at No. 12, and I’ve perennially mocked Jaxon Smith-Njigba at this spot. I prefer Quentin Johnston, but JSN has settled as my WR2 and I think the fit Shanahan-esque Slowik's offense makes sense, so I think this would be a justifiable call - especially if they do, in fact, take CJ Stroud. However, someone must be throwing this new No. 1 receiver the ball, and as I was typing up JSN once again, I realized that the Texans really need to take Will Levis if he is on the board. As much as I hate the Texans passing on Stroud, if he genuinely isn’t their guy and Levis is available at No. 12, it wouldn’t be the worst thing to come away with Will Anderson Jr. and Will Levis. Still, it feels a bit “Draft Day” and even as I type this, I feel uncomfortable predicting that a team would leave their future franchise QB decision to the hope that they slide to No. 12 when they are picking at No. 2…

Of the top-4 QB prospects in this class, Levis is the one I worry about the most and I consider him a borderline 1st round talent. His arm talent is impressive, and he has great build and prototypical traits which will see him likely called on Thursday night, although honestly, I wouldn’t be stunned if he slid to the early 2nd round, a bit like Drew Lock in 2019. Levis makes bad decisions, has weak pocket awareness and struggles with ball security. There are reports he also suffers with anxiety and has mental make-up issues. Richardson is more erratic than Levis, but I love his top-end more, and brings more as an athlete.

Quentin Johnston (WR, TCU), Jordan Addison (WR, USC) - Johnston would be my pick, as I’m very bullish on him. Meanwhile, Addison appears to be sliding a bit, but is another reported consideration according to Tony Pauline.

Lukas Van Ness (EDGE, Iowa) - If Van Ness slides outside the top-10, I’m starting to believe this could be his floor. It depends on how dead set the Texans are on receiver.

Devon Witherspoon (CB, Illinois), Christian Gonzalez (CB, Oregon), Joey Porter Jr. (CB, Penn State) - 2 consecutive corners is an underrated option here. Stingley Jr. didn’t light the world on fire as a rookie, and they have nothing else at cornerback. Porter Jr. is now in his ideal range.

Tennessee

Mock Draft V3 Pick: Darnell Wright (OT, Tennessee)
Mock Draft V2 Pick: Darnell Wright (OT, Tennessee)
Mock Draft V1 Pick: Paris Johnson Jr. (OT, Ohio State)

The Jets are a huge question mark. Will they even hold onto this pick? That's seeming increasingly likely, with reports that the Packers would settle for Day 2 compensation. For now, presuming the Jets stick and pick, they need better linebacker and safety play. Equally, they also need to insure their offensive line, which always seems better on paper than in practice since Joe Douglas came in as GM. Mekhi Becton's promising rookie season seems so long ago, as he's been out with injury in the two years since. He appears in good shape now, but has a history of weight issues. On the other side, Duane Brown will be 38 at the start of next season. It wouldn't shock me if the Jets kicked the OT can down the road and gave Becton one more chance, but I’m not sure they’re in a position to take that chance with Aaron Rodgers. They have a 1-2 year window, and need to win now. Unfortunately, the top two blockers are off the board quickly in my mock, so they default to a 3rd option.

Broderick Jones is the most popular pick here, but he feels risky. After busting on Mekhi Becton (well, probably, one more year to see) Darnell Wright feels like a safer player for Joe Douglas, and one who could go higher than expected as a safe, plug and play RT prospect. Wright has been rocketing up draft boards after an incredible ‘22 season, where he kept Hendon Hooker’s jersey clean. He also dominated the Senior Bowl, and a good week in Indianapolis at the combine. At this point, I'd be surprised if he escaped the top-20 and the 1st round is almost a lock. He completely shut down Will Anderson Jr. at the collegiate level

Other Options:

Paris Johnson Jr. (OT, Ohio State), Peter Skoronski (OT/G, Northwestern), Broderick Jones (OT, Georgia) - I’d be surprised if Johnson was available, and Skoronski is a long shot too. I would personally take Wright over Jones, although others would staunchly disagree.

Quentin Johnston (WR, TCU), Jordan Addison (WR, USC), Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR, Ohio State) - The Jets seem to be targeting veteran receivers, despite having Garrett Wilson, Corey Davis and Allen Lazard. If the right tackle for them isn’t there, maybe they draft another receiver. This feels less likely, but their pre-draft FA shopping indicates they aren’t done at the position.

Brian Branch (S, Alabama) - The Jets’ need better safety play. I wouldn’t hate it if they Branch here - perhaps trading down - and then use a 2nd round pick on someone like Jaelyn Duncan or Tyler Steen.

Ohio State

Mock Draft Pick V3: Zay Flowers (WR, Boston College)
Mock Draft Pick V2: Quentin Johnston (WR, TCU)
Mock Draft Pick V1: Quentin Johnston (WR, TCU)

The Patriots are a loose cannon in the draft world, and always do their own thing. I always cringe a bit when mocking a receiver to the Patriots, as it's seldom gone well. However, they have a very clear and obvious need for the position, even after signing JuJu Smith-Schuster (who is really more of a mid-No. 2). The Patriots need to address their offensive line, but there is a bonafide WR1 prospect available to give Mac Jones a true receiving weapon entering his crucial 3rd year.

As you can see, I’ve mocked both Quentin Johnston and Zay Flowers here. The former is my WR1, whilst Flowers - a reach here - feels like a good fit. However, if JSN is available, he feels like a good Patriots-type receiver. A smart route runner and consistent, I’d for once be pretty impressed by the Patriots’ decision.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba doesn’t have the athletic profile to be a shoe-in top-10 pick like he was early into the ‘22 college season, and only having 1 season of real tape is a big concern - as is his durability. However, I couldn't be too harsh because of what a damn good season that was. In ‘21, he was the Buckeyes’ most productive receiver, alongside future NFL stars Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave. He’s a high-floor prospect for the NFL. The question is, is his ceiling very high?

Other Options:

Zay Flowers (WR, Boston College), Jordan Addison (WR, USC), Quentin Johnston (WR, TCU) - Some alternatives. If they go receiver, I have a sneaky feeling it could still be Zay Flowers. The Patriots do not give a f**k about perceived reaches.

Joey Porter Jr. (CB, Penn State), Christian Gonzalez (CB, Oregon), Devon Witherspoon (CB, Illinois), Brian Branch (S/CB, Alabama) - I nearly put Gonzalez here, but the Patriots have had great success with Day 2/3/UDFA corners and safeties, so I’d be surprised if they took one in Round 1.

Broderick Jones (OT, Georgia), Darnell Wright (OT, Tennessee) - The Patriots need to upgrade at tackle. Trent Brown has regressed and Riley Reiff is a journeyman at this point. Wright would be a terrific fit, but he’s off the board one pick prior. He’s really starting to seem like a top-16 player at this point.

Iowa State

Mock Draft V3 Pick: WIll McDonald IV (EDGE, Iowa State)
Mock Draft V2 Pick: Will McDonald IV (EDGE, Iowa State)
Mock Draft V1 Pick: Myles Murphy (EDGE, Clemson)

Several people are mocking the Packers wide receiver or tight end, but I would be beyond surprised if they went in that direction. This front office’s M.O. is to draft defense on Thursday night, and skill positions on Day 2. With the wealth of Tight End talent in this class, they’ll likely come out with a top-5 TE in this good class at the position with the 45th overall pick in Round 2. Meanwhile, outside of Rashan Gary and Preston Smith (the former coming off an ACL tear; the latter more of a rotational edge rusher), the Packers need pass rushing help badly.

Will McDonald IV is a draft crush of mine, and I think he has a shot of breaking the top-20. As a pure pass rusher, he’s arguably a top-10 talent with elite quarterbacking hunting tape over a few years at Iowa State. Equally, he has a fatal flaw in that he is a bad run defender. However, in this pass oriented league, I think McDonald belongs in the 1st round, if not top-20. He may be more of a designated pass rusher over 2-downs, but McDonald could be a double digit sack as a 3-4 rushing OLB in the NFL. Since the last mock, I’ve come down on him as a good 4-3 fit, but schematically, he makes sense in Green Bay as they run for former.

Other Options:

Myles Murphy (EDGE, Clemson), Lukas Van Ness (EDGE, Iowa) - Some alternatives. This is surely Van Ness’ floor at this point. Murphy is sliding and this is probably his first realistic spot to be taken at this point.

Brian Branch (S/CB, Alabama) - The Packers had some of the worst safety performances I’ve ever seen in ‘22. Branch is the consensus SAF1 in this draft class, and this would be about the right sort of range for him, but they may not value him over an edge rusher. I also wonder if Branch may be more of a nickel in the NFL than a pure safety, and the Packers have a decent one in Rasul Douglas.

Quentin Johnston (WR, TCU), Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR, Ohio State), Zay Flowers (WR, Boston College), Jordan Addison (WR, USC) - Much like the Seahawks finally got better protection after losing Russell Wilson, the Packers could forgo their traditional philosophy once Rodgers leaves and recognise they need to surround Jordan Love with plenty of weapons if he’s to succeed.

Oregon

Mock Draft V3: Christian Gonzalez (CB, Oregon)
Mock Draft V2 Pick: Joey Porter Jr. (CB, Penn State)
Mock Draft V1 Pick: Joey Porter Jr. (CB, Penn State)

The Commanders feel destined to take the best CB available with this pick, and that has commonly been Joey Porter Jr. However, in this mock, I have Christian Gonzalez sliding. This isn’t for any particular reason, other than that most of the CB needy teams outside of Detroit and Las Vegas are picking in the teens over the top-10. If Gonzalez or Witherspoon escape the top-8, I think they could both slide to the No. 16-20 range simply because of fit (short of trades, which I never mock).

This would be incredible value, as Christian Gonzalez could go as high as pick No. 6 or 7. Gonzalez is a very well rounded cornerback and probably the safest between the top-3 of himself, Witherspoon and Penn State’s Joey Porter Jr. when considering athleticism and tape. Gonzalez himself was exceptional in ‘22 and addressed many questions teams had of him such as ball skills and consistency. Gonzalez is seen by teams as a likely candidate to break out at the combine, and he dominated it. I think Gonzalez is a sure-fire top-16 pick and probably a top-10 prospect due to his athleticism. This slide on draft night is probably unlikely, but just the way this mock has fallen.

Other Options:

Devon Witherspoon (CB, Illinois), Joey Porter Jr. (CB, Penn State), Deonte Banks - The Commanders have been interviewing every blue-chip CB prospect in this class, so unless they all go very early, I really think it is the direction they’ll go in. We are approaching the floor for Witherspoon and Gonzalez now.

Darnell Wright (OT, Tennessee), Broderick Jones (OT, Georgia) - This is another direction I could see the Commanders moving in if all corners are gone.

Dalton Kincaid (TE, Utah), Michael Mayer (TE, Notre Dame), Sam LaPorta (TE, Iowa) - The Commanders need a pass catching tight end threat. I like this class, but think the 20’s is a better range for these guys. This would be more attractive as a Plan B if the corners are gone and they can trade down first.