Round 1
The Chargers defense is a joke considering the talent they have, and Staley should have been fired last season. Short of a deep playoff run, that is his likely fate this season. Presuming their star-power rebounds, the Chargers have a big hole at safety across from Derwin James. Nubin is a tough, versatile defender with some great tape both in 2022 and 2023. He’s improving, has great size and is a tough run defender. Co-incidentally, this would be the same pick used to acquire James in 2018.
The Bills are erratic this year. At times, they look like the best team in the NFL, but then dropped games to the Jets and pitiful Patriots. Their receiving room beyond Diggs (who is now in his 30’s) has underwhelmed, and Gabe Davis is an impending free agent. Nabers is the best player on the board and could be the DeVonta Smith for the Bills as a WR2 who would be a WR1 candidate for a lesser team.
Prospect: Taliese Fuaga (OT, Oregon State)
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Trevor Penning looks to be a bust, and their remaining OL outside of Erik McCoy and Ryan Ramsczcyk - who himself has regressed a bit too - is a shambles. The Cesar Ruiz extension was a true head scratcher. The Saints could do with another OT upgrade and reset that clock. Fuaga has an exponential riser this season, and has put himself from Day 3 contention into the top-30 prospects for many evaluators. He’s been outstanding in 2023 and is insanely tough, physical and has great size. He'll be on the site soon, I can guarentee it.
The Kirk Cousins era may finally be over in wake of his season ending injury. Often criticized undeserved, the truth remains that he’ll be 36 next season and never proved himself when it really mattered. The Vikings could do with moving on with a young, talented QB. Penix is not a flawless prospect, but he’s a damn good football player and has been lights out in 2023 after already showing big improvements in 2022. For me, he’s put himself squarely in the top-20 conversation.
The Cowboys could consider an OT upgrade here, as Tyler Smith has looked elite at guard to bookend the already superb Zack Martin. Tyron Smith isn’t getting younger, and Terrence Steele was a puzzling extension. However, their entire passing offense is presently going through CeeDee Lamb. They could do with a true WR2 in Dallas. Mitchell is rising with teams, as Charlie has reported that teams consider him a future 1st round talent. He’s been the Longhorns’ most electric play-maker this season.
Joey Porter Jr. has been terrific when utilized, but the Steelers other cornerbacks are liabilities. They could do with bookending Porter with another corner. Lassiter has put himself in the 20-32 range as things stand after some great games in 2023. He is not very productive in terms of interceptions , but his instincts have improved and is very disruptive.
The Texans secondary is still a huge issue. Derek Stingley Jr. - a pick I intensely criticized at the time - was average as a rookie, and now injured, so the jury is still out on him. Even if he becomes a stud, they need another good cornerback. Kool-Aid McKinstry is the more popular Alabama cornerback, but Charlie recently reported that teams typically prefer Terrion “Ghost” Arnold, and that speed is the only thing really preventing him from being a 1st round lock. Both Charlie and Dane Brugler are high on Arnold, who has played very well in 2023.
Will this be the year the Bengals finally sort their OL out? None of their free agent acquisitions have really paid off, and JOnah Williams is an impending free agent. They will need a bookend to Orlando Brown Jr. for the long-term. Guyton has a brilliant skill-set and is presently underrated in the media, but needs to play a bit tougher and more consistent. He reminds me a bit of Christian Darrisaw, who has become one of the league’s best Left Tackles.
The Seahawks have a good OT duo for the future in Charles Cross and Abe Lucas, but Damien Lewis is an impending free agent, and their remaining IOL weak. Barton plays LT for the Blue Devils, but is more of a guard at the next level, similar to ‘22 draft pick Peter Skoronski. Barton has been a big up and down in 2023, but is a pretty high floor starter with fringe 1st/2nd round ability.
Don’t rule out edge rushers once again for my 49ers. Chase Young is a likely short-term rental, and Drake Jackson has largely disappointed, being a feast or famine player more suited to a DPR role. However, the 49ers are squandering this elite roster due to their puzzling lack of premium investment along the offensive line. I’d be shocked if that didn’t change in this coming season, either via free agency or the draft. Trent Williams is elite, but also beyond 35. Aaron Banksand Jake Brendel are unspectacular but solid enough at left guard and center, but their right side is a complete liability. Suamataia is an excellent zone blocking scheme fit, with exceptional size and athleticism. He isn’t the complete package yet and could have some rookie hiccups, but he has a ton of upside for the next level.
This Dolphins offense is electric, but their defense is still playing under par given their star power. The Dolphins could do with an option at free safety alongside the superb Jevon Holland. Cooper DeJean is a bit overrated by the media in my opinion, but he’s a quality playmaker with good ball skills and safety/slot ability. He’s a comparable prospect to Brian Branch, and would be an option in a couple of positions of need for Miami. Their OL needs a lot of work, but this is a deep OL draft.
Prospect: Jordan Morgan (G/OT, Arizona)
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The Jaguars made a good trade deadline move for Ezra Cleveland, who has blossomed into a very good guard in the NFL. Guard was a huge weakness for the Jaguars, with Scherff entering his final year in 2024 (and not his former dominant self), and their remaining IOL options not being true starting caliber players. Cleveland could make big money, and may just be a short-term rental in a year where the Jaguars need to extend Trevor Lawrence and Josh Allen. Jordan Morgan is a fringe 1st round prospect on my big board who could make the move to guard at the next level, with the upside to start at RT one day. Morgan broke Dane Brugler’s mid-season top-30 and would have been a likely 2nd rounder had he declared this past season.
The Lions front office is one of the more impressive in the NFL and have done an incredible job re-building a forgotten franchise and making them a top-3 NFC squad within 3 drafts. The Lions have drafted several cornerstone players including Aidan Hutchinson, Penei Sewell and Amon-Ra St. Brown, with the projection for Jahmyr Gibbs, Sam LaPorta, Brian Branch and others looking equally bullish. Their only real “miss” thus far was the trade up for Jameson Williams. After returning from injury (and then suspension), Williams has looked like a huge bust, dropping passes and struggling to use his given abilities to get open. He’ll be on a very short leash moving forward, and the Lions don’t have a long-term WR2/3 outside of St. Brown if he fails (St. Brown will also be entering a contract year). Odunze doesn’t have elite speed but is a really good all around football player, tough, physical and has mismatch size. Sounds like a Lion to me.
The Ravens’ have a hit on Zay Flowers, but the rest of their receiving corps is middling. Rashod Bateman has disappointed to say the least, and OBJ/Agholor are not long-term solutions at this point in their careers. However, they have an even bigger hole at cornerback. Outside of the oft injured Marlon Humphries, they have no proven commodities. McKinstry is reportedly viewed in this late 1st/early 2nd round range as a talented cornerback with reported work ethic issues. However, he’d be decent value at this spot.
The Chiefs are perennially great, but their offense has been off this season and carried by two magicians in Mahoems and Kelce. Rashee Rice was a nice pick up I was admittedly not hot on at the time (my bad), but Kadarius Toney has been a complete bust in the NFL, and Skyy Moore feels like a gadget player rather than a serious WR1/2. Legette is a Deebo Samuel type for the NFL - not just because of his alma mater - but because he can do lethal damage with the ball in his hands. He’s reportedly a big riser this season with teams.
The Eagles historically only really draft OL, DL or WR in the opening round, and they are beyond stacked in the trenches - to the point where if Jason Kelce and Lane Johnson simultaneously retire, they still have potential starts in the ranks with Cam Jerguns and Tyler Steen. The Eagles also have the best 1-2 WR punch in the NFL with Brown and Smith, but they are very reliant on those two players. Although a 1st round pick or a WR3 may seem ridiculous, it’s not in their M.O. to address less valuable positions this early, and in such a dominant window it would make sense to stockpile on a surplus of weapons for Jalen Hurts.