Alabama

Darious Williams being released due to cap constraints opens a huge hole at outside cornerback for Jacksonville. Baalke will want to get more physical on defense, and with their FA signings band-aiding the interior OL somewhat Arnold feels like a hand-in-glove fit to achieve that goal. Brian Thomas Jr. gets consideration here, but the Jaguars could tap into the Day 2 talent in this class to get their next receiver.

I have slightly cooled on Terrion Arnold after a tepid combine; however, he still has outstanding tape and was very productive in 2023, so I won’t over-react to that performance. Arnold could be one of the better nickel cornerbacks in the NFL during his rookie contract, but could also play boundary corner and likely do well there. He is unanimously viewed as the better pro prospect versus Kool-Aid McKinstry, according to Dane Brugler.

***
Top Alternative Option(s):

Quinyon Mitchell (CB, Toledo) - I think Mitchell will still go top-20 despite some teams being concerned with his lower level of competition. He’s got exceptional tape and is a stellar athlete. Mitchell isn’t a lock to go CB1, but he won’t last past Pittsburgh at #20.

Brian Thomas Jr. (WR, LSU) - All signs point to this being a cornerback, but Thomas Jr. could be a tantalizing replacement for Calvin Ridley and their future WR1.

Oregon State

Death, taxes and OL struggles. The Bengals continue to have a big need along their offensive line, and the 2nd round has a good group of likely available DT's. Cincinnati laterally replaced Jonah Williams with Trent Brown, but the hulking right tackle - whilst still talented - has injury, consistency and effort issues. The Bengals could opt to take their future right tackle who can start Day 1 at guard; they could perhaps even slide out to left tackle in the intermediate future to replace the underperforming Orlando Brown Jr.

Fuaga has been one of the biggest risers this past season, being a tough as nails blocker with excellent tape. He also had a terrific combine, both in terms of testing and in terms of interviews/football IQ (as per Charlie Campbell). Fuaga is viewed as a guard by some teams, and a right tackle by others, but would have limited left tackle ability.

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Top Alternative Option(s):

Troy Fautanu (G/OT, Washington) or Amarius Mims (OT, Georgia) - Fautanu would be a good fit in Cincinnati for similar reasons to Fuaga. Amarius Mims deserves a nod here for his upside.

Byron Murphy II (DT, Texas) - Murphy would be a BPA pick at a position of reasonable need, as the Bengals’ run defense was dreadful in 2023.

UCLA

I very nearly mocked the Rams Byron Murphy II here, as I think he could easily go top-16 and fills a huge need post-Aaron Donald’s retirement. However, Laiatu Latu is my top defensive player left on the board and - if he clears his medical - could be a monstrous defender for the Rams. They need another outside linebacker alongside Byron Young, and are probably getting a better overall going edge rusher in Round 1 and defensive tackle in Round 2.

Latu is my top defender in this class based purely tape alone, but his now famous medical retirement could really damage his stock. There are rumors that he hasn't been unanimously cleared, so if he slides, that is why. I think Latu could be justified as high as 8th overall as a player, so if Latu does slide, a team is getting a steal presuming he stays healthy).

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Top Alternative Option(s):

Byron Murphy II (DT, Texas) - I don’t need to explain how good a fit Murphy would be in replacing future first ballot hall of famer Aaron Donald. I doubt Murphy gets past this pick.

Chop Robinson (EDGE, Penn State) - Although raw and inconsistent, Robinson has the best burst in this weak edge group, and tested phenomenally at the combine.

Georgia

The Steelers ideally need a center and boundary cornerback - Barton or Powers-Johnson would not be at all surprising - but the Steelers are rumored to be in love with Amarius Mims, and in this mock, he falls into their laps. .

I am besotted by Mims’ potential as a prospect, who is my “Tyler Smith” OL draft crush of this draft class. With another half a season of tape, I think Mims would be a consensus top-10 pick. Whilst I understand the concerns - both with sample size and durability - Amarius Mims is likely too good to slide much further than this. Other “safer” tackle prospects will go ahead of him, but Mims could be a beast in the NFL. He is more talented than Broderick Jones, who the Steelers took #14 overall last year.

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Top Alternative Option(s):

Jackson Powers-Johnson (C/G, Oregon) or Graham Barton (C/G/OT, Duke) - Center is a dire need for this team, and Jackson Powers-Johnson feels like a terrific match for the Steelers. He’s a tough as nails center with the ability to transition to guard should an injury or future free agency require it.

Cooper DeJean (CB/S, Iowa) - I don’t love how the remaining cornerbacks fit-in with the Steelers this high; if I was to pick one, it would probably be Cooper DeJean. He’s a super athletic, highly versatile player who also plays hard/tough.

Washington

The Dolphins need interior defensive line help, but if Fautanu slides to here I don’t think they can pass on him. The Dolphins lost two interior offensive line starters in Connor Williams and Robert Hunt. Aaron Brewer presumably fills the gap at center, but they still need a plug-and-plug guard. If that prospect has the versatility to kick to Left Tackle when Terron Armstead retires, that’s all the better.

I’m running slightly cooler on Fautanu in the lead-up to the draft; despite his arm length, I’m still not convinced he will be an NFL caliber tackle and I think he could struggle with bullrushes and in run support. Still, Troy Fautanu would be a really good fit for Miami, as he’s durable, has positional flexibility as a potential 5-position starter. He was a terrific openside protector for Michael Penix Jr. last season (he played left tackle, but to a left handed quarterback), and it's optimistic at this point to presume he’ll be here; Fautanu is a feasible option for several teams in the teens.

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Top Alternative Option(s):

Jackson Powers-Johnson (C/G, Oregon) or Graham Barton (C/G/OT, Duke) - Obvious IOL alternatives. Brewer has played center and guard; they have options with either 1st round prospect to fill the other gap, as both can play every IOL position.

Laiatu Latu (EDGE, UCLA) - A dark horse for this pick, if he slides due to medical. The Dolphins drafted Jaelan Phillips, who had a similar medical retirement, and have serious issues at edge rusher entering 2024. I would be cautious, as they already have two talented but injury prone edge rushers.

Penn State

The Eagles almost exclusively draft linemen or receivers in the 1st round; however, this has come at the cost of their putrid secondary. With the multitude of options available, I won’t dismiss a cornerback - its their biggest need, after all. However, with a plethora of Day 2 starting-calibre depth, I am mocking them a surprise pick here.

After trading Reddick, the Eagles still have Nolan Smith, Bryce Huff (free agency), Brandon Graham and Josh Sweat. However, the latter two are veterans likely better suited to 4-3 defences as base ends. Huff played <60% of snaps in New York, and I'm not confident Nolan Smith will blossom into a full-time starter. With the shift to 3-4, Chop Robinson would be a good fit for their new defensive scheme. He was trending downwards as a potential top-32 pick thanks to an inconsistent 2023 season, not putting up much production. He is, however, an exceptionally twitchy edge rusher with a ton of upside. He also interviewed well, has high character marks, and tested ridiculously well in Indianapolis.

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Top Alternative Option(s):

Cooper DeJean (CB/S, Iowa) or Nate Wiggins (CB, Clemson) - Two options to help them at cornerback/

Tyler Guyton (OT, Oklahoma) - Guyton is talented but very raw. He was mentored by Lane Johnson, and could be a RT “heir apparent”. I’d be cautious about doing this, unless they know Johnson is closer to retirement than the average viewer does. This plan failed spectacularly with Andre Dillard in 2018.

Illinois

Trade!

The 2nd pick received from the Vikings in a hypothetical trade. The Cardinals could justify just about any player here, as their roster is arguably the weakest in the entire NFL. They need cornerback, but the late 1st/early 2nd round will have options and they have another two picks in the next twelve. The Cardinals also have the thinnest receiving corps I have ever seen as of writing this, so much so that the prospect of them drafting two Day 1 receivers seems tantalizing. Whilst entertaining to ponder, that is not realistic, so instead have Arizona taking defensive BPA with this choice and selecting Illinoi defensive tackle Jer’Zhan Newton.

For much of this process, I felt Newton was grossly overrated. Now, Newton is trending towards being underrated as he’s being tanked in other mock drafts. Newton is a love/hate prospect and limited run defender; he is, however, a dangerous interior pass rushing threat; a rare commodity in the NFL. The Cardinals have had a weakness at defensive tackle for years, and their mid-value free agency signings of Bilal Nichols and Justin Jones would not supersede them taking an interior pass rushing DT if the right prospect was to fall to them.

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Top Alternative Option(s):

Nate Wiggins (CB, Clemson), Cooper DeJean (CB/S, Iowa) or Kool-Aid McKinstry (CB, Alabama) - There are several late 1st/early 2nd round caliber cornerbacks potentially available. For this very reason, they could opt to draft one at #27 or #35.

Jackson Powers-Johnson (C/G, Oregon) or Graham Barton (C/G/OT, Duke) - The Cardinals need at least two new interior offensive linemen, as their current starting OL is filled with journeymen at center and guard. Similar to the above, there will be options available to them at other picks they are making soon.

Duke

It is possible that Tyler Smith will move to Left Tackle again, but he was so elite at guard that they may opt to draft a future LT and leave where he excelled in 2023. Equally, with so many tackles gone, they may be more inclined to get a Day 1 starter along the interior. Powers-Johnson is the likely dream pick here; if gone, I think they may prefer the versatility and high-floor of Graham Barton to other available options.

Barton feels like a perfect fit for the Cowboys, as he’s a potential 5-position starter. Barton plays LT for the Blue Devils, but is more of a center or guard at the next level, similar to ‘22 draft pick Peter Skoronski. Barton has been a big up and down in 2023, but is a pretty high floor starter with a solid 1st round grade. He could start at center to replace Tyler Biadacz Day 1, slide to guard, or be a contingency tackle a-la Elgton Jenkins.

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Top Alternative Option(s):

Jackson Powers-Johnson (C, Oregon) - An obvious alternative. He appears to have suffered from slightly over-bullish reports after his Senior Bowl. Whilst I personally really like him, he could slide to the late 1st/early 2nd round.

Tyler Guyton (OT, Oklahoma) - Guyton is raw but very talented. The Cowboys could be interested in a more pure LT if they stick with Tyler Smith at guard.

Chop Robinson (EDGE, Penn State) or Laiatu Latu (EDGE, UCLA) - Edge rusher is a dark horse pick here. Parsons is incredible but the Cowboys lost Dorance Armstrong and DeMarcus Lawrence is a decent but upgradable starter. Sam Williams is talented but not an every down starter, plus has character concerns

Iowa

The Packers’ secondary is a shambles, at cornerback (outside of the oft injured Jaire Alexander) and at safety. Cooper DeJean feels like a prototypical Brian Gutekunst pick, offering the exact versatility the Packers weak secondary for a program they’ve recently trusted. This is also within his “goldilocks” draft range of the mid-20’s.

Cooper DeJean is a quality playmaker with good ball skills and safety/slot ability. He’s a comparable prospect to solid rookie DB Brian Branch but with far superior athleticism, and would be an option in a couple of positions of need for the Packers. They desperately need a playmaker with athletic upside.

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Top Alternative Option(s):

Kool-Aid McKinstry (CB, Alabama) - Wiggins doesn’t fit the Packers mold, but McKinstry does. He’s a press-man cornerback but has received some better reports in recent weeks after his stock crashed in March.

Jordan Morgan (G/OT, Arizona) or Graham Barton (C/G/OT, Duke) - The Packers love versatile offensive lineman (Elgton Jenkins, Zach Tom); albeit not typically in Round 1. However, both could get consideration here given their upside and versatility.

Clemson

Despite spending 5 of their last 6 first picks on front-seven defenders, the Buccaneers really need help at edge rusher. YaYa Diaby is a very nice player, but Shaq Barrett was released as a cap measure; Joe Tryon-Shoyinka is also trending towards a bust. In a weak class at the OLB/DE position, thought, there is no
good fit range-worthy. Instead, I have them addressing their secondary by taking Nate Wiggins from Clemson.

Wiggins is a very talented cornerback who has a starting boundary skill-set, good range, length and athletic ability. His ball skills aren’t exceptional, but he is very disruptive and a balanced corner between man and zone and would be an instant upgrade for the Buccaneers' weak secondary post-Carlton Davis.

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Top Alternative Option(s):

Chop Robinson (EDGE, Penn State) Darius Robinson (EDGE, Missouri) - Chop Robinson is the pick if available. I prefer Darius Robinson’s fit in a 4-3 defense, but he is the only range-worthy option if Robinson (Chop) isn’t available.

Kool-Aid McKinstry (CB, Alabama) or Ennis Rakestraw Jr. (CB, Missouri) - Cornerback alternatives.

Alabama

Name it, and the Cardinals could probably justify drafting it. In my opinion, IOL is a huge need, and I have Jackson Powers-Johnson in the 20’s of my big board, over this prospect. However, between CB and C, CB is a position of equally big need and is a premium position. At #35 the Cardinals could still have a chance at Powers-Johnson or an alternative center such as Zach Frazier.

Kool-Aid McKinstry is more of a 2nd round prospect in my opinion, as I view him as inferior to Joey Porter Jr. with similar concerns over non-press coverage. Equally, McKinstry has received better character reports according to Charlie Campbell from other recent teams he’s spoken with, and plays a high-value position with little consensus. McKinstry could be a very solid boundary fit that immediately bolsters their weak pass defense and is a safe bet to be a decent starter early in his NFL career. I just question the ceiling you’re getting with him.

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Top Alternative Option(s):

Nate Wiggins (CB, Clemson) or Ennis Rakestraw Jr. (CB, Missouri) - Wiggins has a wide range of potential draft outcomes. He goes at #22 in my mock, but could slide as low as the early portion of Round 2. Rakestraw is a sneaky R1 candidate as although he had a weak combine, teams like him. He was also recovering from hernia surgery.

Jackson Powers-Johnson (C/G, Oregon) or Graham Barton (C/G/OT, Duke) - I nearly mocked Powers-Johnson here. The Cardinals need IOL help badly.

South Carolina

The Bills clearly need to give Josh Allen more receiving weapons. This was already the case prior to trading Stefon Diggs; now, it feels almost a certainty they'll target a receiver in R1. With the expected bull rush on offensive lineman and the immense quality/depth of this receiving class, I feel like some really good receivers could slide. This includes Xavier Worthy, Adonai Mitchell, Xavier Legette and Ladd McConkey, who all have late 1st round talent but might slip to the 2nd round.

Moving to fit, I think AD Mitchell’s college inconsistencies and character concerns could be a red flag to the Bills after dealing with Diggs’ antics for so long. Xavier Worthy is exceptionally thin and his mass to size ratio is lesser than that of DeVonta Smith. To me, Xavier Legette is a fantastic fit and my WR5 now. Legette is raw but has mis-match size, really good 2023 tape and a well balanced skill-set of speed, athleticism and strength.

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Top Alternative Option(s):

AD Mitchell (WR, Texas), Ladd McConkey (WR, Georgia) or Xavier Worthy (WR, Texas) - There are several late 1st/early 2nd round type receivers to choose from. I’m souring on the two Texas receivers, and liking McConkey more and more.

Missouri

The Lions front office is one of the more impressive in the NFL and have done an incredible job re-building a forgotten franchise and making them a top NFC squad within 3 drafts.However, they need to pair Aidan Hutchinson with a high upside 4-3 defensive end, and Darius Robinson feels like the perfect “Lions” pick.

Darius Robinson is a multi-year starter with inside/outside versatility. He had an incredible pre-draft process, dominating the combine and show-casing his toughness. He fits the knee-biting M.O. of this regime, and is also a local Michigan prospect who could be a good cultural match.

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Top Alternative Option(s):

Kool-Aid McKinstry (CB, Alabama), Nate Wiggins (CB, Clemson) or Ennis Rakestraw Jr. (CB, Missouri) - The Lions eschewed this need last year with veteran signings, and the position was a weakness all year. They then released Cam Sutton due to legal issues, now making the need gargantuan. Cornerback is the biggest need on their roster.

Jordan Morgan (G/OT, Arizona) - Zeitler is not a long-term signing for Detroit, as solid a veteran as he is. Taylor Decker is also past his prime. Morgan could be a solid OL6 for 2024 than moves to guard or tackle in 2025.

Oklahoma

The Ravens’ have several needs considering how good they were in 2023. However, their OL needs to be priority No. 1. They have long-term issues at LT, as Ronnie Stanley is a shadow of his former self, and Morgan Moses was traded away to the Jets (a move I disliked, as he is a solid veteran starter at a really important position). Patrick Mekari - who did very well as an OL6 throughout his tenure with Baltimore - could have a shot at starting at G or RT, but they could do with a long-term, higher-upside option.

I’m a huge fan of Tyler Guyton for similar reasons to Amarius Mims - he’s raw and less of a sure thing, but has a higher ceiling and superior skill-set to other prospects in this class that will go earlier. After a mixed combine Guyton's stock may be on the decline, but he has a lot of upside, and wouldn't be criticized on my part as a top-16 pick. I think somewhere in the 24-32 range is more likely, but if the Ravens can deal with the short-term teething problems as Guyton sets in, they could be rewarded with a Pro Bowl caliber tackle.

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Top Alternative Option(s):

Jordan Morgan (G/OT, Arizona) - After losing Zeitler, the Ravens also have a need at guard. Morgan projects best as a guard, but could feasibly play tackle thanks to his plus athleticism.

Kool-Aid McKinstry (CB, Alabama), Nate Wiggins (CB, Clemson) or Ennis Rakestraw Jr. (CB, Missouri) - Boundary cornerback is an issue for Baltimore. Humphries is excellent but oft-injured, and they could do with an upgrade alongside him. I expect a Day 2 pick at cornerback at a minimum.

Arizona

Full disclaimer - I’m a 49ers fan. Cornerback and wide receiver are not out of the question here, but the hamartia of the 49ers' Super Bowl campaign was the right side of their offensive line. The 49ers invested extremely deeply along their defensive line in free agency, signing/acquiring Leonard Floyd, Maliek Collins, Yetur Gross-Matos, Kevin Givens and Jordan Elliott. Although none of those guys are superstars, the unit has improved as a sum of all its parts; Floyd and Collins are very competent starters, with Gross-Matos and Elliott being good run defending rotational pieces. These moves indicate the OL could be a focus in the draft as nothing of note has been done to improve the weakest part of the 49ers’ roster.

I’m a big fan of Jordan Morgan as a potential solution to rectify that. Morgan is an athletic tackle who might project best to guard in the pros, with smaller arm length, but may still hang at tackle despite this because of his traits. Morgan has relatively few flaws as a multi-year starter who can be a pass-protection upgrade at guard or right tackle for the 49ers. Both spots need to be upgraded.

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Top Alternative Option(s):

Trade up - The 49ers don’t need 10 picks, even with future-proofing their roster for contractual decision. A move up for Fautanu, Mims or Morgan cannot be ruled out.

Roger Rosengarten (OT, Washington) - I have Rosengarten as the 46th prospect on my big board, and a mid-to-late 2nd round prospect, so this would be a reasonable reach. However, Rosengarten is a hand-in-glove fit for the 49ers and someone they are reportedly interested in. Trading back (or up from #63 after taking a non-OL in Round 1) would be more palatable but if hypothetically left with Rosengarten, Suamataia or Paul, I could see the 49ers reaching on Rosengarten as per Kaleb McGary in 2019 to Atlanta. They have to upgrade their OL.

Xavier Legette (WR, South Carolina) or Ladd McConkey (WR, Georgia) - The 49ers are unlikely to trade Aiyuk. The franchise usually extends in the summer, and the 49ers have no reason to move him unless they get an insane offer (unlikely, in a loaded WR draft). He is an elite X-receiver who Shanahan has groomed and his recent antics are in line with dozens of other NFL stars demanding extensions. However, Deebo Samuel is often hurt and never quite got back to his 2021 level of play. Keeping Aiyuk AND Deebo past 2024 will be difficult; Jauan Jennings also won’t be around in 2025. Legette and McConkey are fantastic fits, and Worthy could be an interesting deep threat. Mitchell is a poor blocker and not strong after the catch, the two things a San Francisco receiver must do, so I don’t see AD Mitchell as an option.

Texas

The Chiefs need receiver help despite winning their 3rd Super Bowl win in 5 years, as Rashee Rice - their only true threat - is going through legal issues at present, and Travis Kelce probably has 2-3 years of elite play before age (eventually) catches up to him. Kadarius Toney and Skyy Moore are busts, and Justin Watson is - at best - a WR3.
Like other teams picking late, there are various options available. Given the Chiefs' signing of Hollywood Brown, I like AD Mitchell as an X-receiver fit. Mitchell's lack of production and YAC ability is concerning, but has great height and length who is reasonably proficient in his route running for a young prospect.

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Top Alternative Option(s):

Kingsley Suamataia (OT, BYU) - Reid likes his BYU offensive lineman. This is too early for Suamataia in a vacuum, but he has the skill-set of a top-20 choice. The Chiefs really need a long-term LT solution, unless they trust Wanya Morris.

Xavier Worthy (WR, Texas) - The Chiefs signed Hollywood Brown, but the Texas speedstar could be a long-term option at the position. Kansas City need to come away from this draft with multiple wide-outs.