USC

Fields being traded away merely formalizes what we've known for months - Caleb Williams will go #1 to the Chicago Bears.

Whilst Williams had some tape regression in 2023, and appears to be a unique character, he is a blue-chip quarterback prospect rivaling the likes of Trevor Lawrence, Joe Burrow and Andrew Luck.

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Top Alternative Option(s):

None - I don’t see a feasible scenario where Williams is not the No. 1 overall pick to Chicago.

LSU

Several outlets are reporting that Daniels has the edge for Washington at No. 2, and Charlie Campbell in his recent mock made comment about new GM Adam Peters being “enamored” with Daniels. Between Maye and Daniels I don't think Washington can really go wrong, but I would also give the edge to Daniels as QB2.

Daniels was arguably the best college football player at any position in 2023. He has incredible athleticism, throws a beautifully catchable ball and showed very encouraging improvements since transferring to LSU. He also protects the ball well whilst aggressively pushing the ball down-field. Daniels needs development, and doesn’t have elite arm talent, but is a terrific prospect.

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Top Alternative Option(s):

Drake Maye (QB, North Carolina) or JJ McCarthy (QB, Michigan)- There is reportedly a split between Daniels, Maye and McCarthy in Washington. In my opinion, Maye should be the pick if not Daniels.

North Carolina

It would be a shock if the Patriots pass on a QB. Next year's QB class looks questionable, and the Patriots have a lot of capital in this draft to improve in key spots without needing to trade down, so I don’t see the need to accumulate picks. It’s also a huge risk to presume a franchise will be bad enough to take a QB the next year. The Cardinals, for example, finished 4-13 but would have still been on the outside looking in regarding the top-3 QBs had they wanted to go that direction. With Williams and Daniels gone, the Patriots take QB3 at #3.

The pendulum has swung way too far on Maye, who is in his own right an outstanding prospect roughly equitable to Daniels. Maye is highly accurate, very smart with the football and possesses quality field vision. He regressed at the back end of 2023, but his protection was dismal, and his weapons dropped off from 2022, so I'm not too concerned. There isn’t a vast divide between Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels or Drake Maye and all 3 are top-5, franchise-caliber QB talents.

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Top Alternative Option(s):

Jayden Daniels (QB, LSU) or JJ McCarthy (QB, Michigan) - Daniels is the pick if Washington surprises at No. 2 based on the reporting I’ve seen. The building seems split on Maye and McCarthy; I’d take Maye, but there are rumors they prefer McCarthy.

Michigan

Trade!

I very seldom mock trades in my mock drafts, but I'll make a rare exception here. The Vikings seem destined to move up for a signal caller, and the expectation around the league is the Vikings are moving to No. 4 or No. 5 to beat the Giants (plus the remaining QB market of Denver and Las Vegas). This is the first slot where the Vikings could move up for a QB, and it would be within Terry Ossenfort’s MO to do so. The Cardinals have traded picks a lot under this regime, and having #11, #23 and# 27 to rebuild could help kick-start the worst roster in football. There is a lot of WR, OL and CB depth, all positions of need for Arizona. In this mock, I have them making such a trade, arming them with 3 first round picks.

Some hypothesize the Vikings are targeting Maye, but I think it's more likely that they are consolidating their position to not be beating for JJ McCarthy. Williams, Daniels and Maye appear to be immovable top-3 selections. Like Anthony Richardson last year, McCarthy is a huge reach in the top-10 in a vacuum. I see him as a bubble 1st round talent. However, the need around the league for a QB is seismic, and McCarthy is an athletically gifted, cerebral quarterback who could thrive in the right scheme and with the right protection.

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Top Alternative Option(s):

Stay at #11 and draft Byron Murphy II (DT, Texas) - The Vikings were heavily connected to Byron Murphy prior to losing Kirk Cousins in free agency, and is a huge need at a good range at #11 overall.

Trade back from #11 to Draft Michael Penix Jr. (Washington) or Bo Nix (Oregon) - If the Vikings miss on a QB here, they could look to trade back and take Penix/Nix, or stay at #11 and take one. I consider both prospects Day 2 talents and would consider this a huge reach.

Ohio State

The Chargers could be another candidate to move down. However, Harbaugh has also made comments of No. 5 being the de-facto No. 1 overall pick should QB’s go 1 through 4, which they do in this mock. Although Harbaugh and Roman often do not prioritize elite receivers in their offensive, I simply cannot fathom them not taking Marvin Harrison Jr. or Malik Nabers if gifted to them at No. 5. Their projected receiving corps has the lowest amount of career yardage in the NFL by over 1,000 yards.

Marvin Harrison Jr. is one of the most prized WR prospects in recent memory with virtually no flaws to his game, and is my No. 1 prospect in this class irrespective of position. Size, ball skills, speed, route running, instincts, football pedigree - he has it all. Malik Nabers (LSU) is reportedly really close to Marvin Harrison Jr. on many big boards, and both are ranked 1st and 2nd on my big board.

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Top Alternative Option(s):

Malik Nabers (WR, LSU) - Some reportedly have Nabers as WR1. I have Harrison Jr. and Nabers as my 1st and 2nd rated prospects irrespective of position, so either/or choice

Joe Alt (OT, Notre Dame) - The only forgivable pick that is not Harrison Jr. or Nabers here is Alt, the consensus OT1.

Trade down for JC Latham (OT, Alabama) or Taliese Fuaga (OT, Oregon State) - If the Chargers are the team to move down, both right tackles are targets. They’d be good fits for the Chargers as nasty right tackles.

LSU

The Giants need a new quarterback, as Daniels Jones is not the guy. However, unless the engineer a short trade up to #4 for QB4, I don’t think that happens in Round 1 of the 2024 NFL Draft. Meanwhile, if QB’s go 1-2-3-4 then the Giants are in a perfect position to draft a true WR1, which they have not had since Odell Beckham Jr. left. They are guaranteed one of 3 franchise cornerstone-type receivers - Marvin Harrison Jr., Malik Nabers, or Rome Odunze.

Malik Nabers is my 2nd rated prospect in this entire draft class behind only Marvin Harrison Jr., and the Giants feel like Nabers’ floor. In most drafts, Nabers would be a consensus WR1. He has very few flaws and is versatile both as an X receiver and in the slot, as well as incredible to-end speed. Charlie Campbell reported in a hot press that nearly every team he spoke with has Nabers ahead of Odunze, and that Nabers potentially being WR1 isn’t out of the question, despite Harrison’s bullish reputation.

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Top Alternative Option(s):

Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR, Ohio State) or Rome Odunze (WR, Washington) - Harrison Jr. is a top-6 lock, with this being his absolute floor. Nabers is the likely pick, but Odunze - whilst not quite as good - is the highest character individual of the 3 and a top-10 pick in his own right.

Notre Dame

Prior to Calvin Ridley signing a 4-year deal, this was a toss up between whether they would take their receiver first or their tackle first in Rounds 1 and 2. Now, with Ridley signed and Andre Dillard released, the Titans appear set to draft their future Left Tackle .

There is little consensus past OT1. However, Joe Alt appears to have cemented himself as the top tackle in this draft class. He’s also unequivocally the best left tackle specifically, with many of this class' top talent being better right tackle fits. Alt has elite size, and although has some natural stiffness at 6-8, he is still a nimble-footed tackle. He has exceptional 2023 tape, stellar technique, and can play either tackle position. Alt has perennial Pro Bowl potential and the Titans at #7 appears to be his floor.

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Top Alternative Option(s):

Trade back for Olu Fashanu (OT, Penn State) - Fashanu is trending down as a top-10 pick, but is probably the Titans’ Plan B. They could probably trade down and still take him, but I’d be fine with him at #7.

Rome Odunze (WR, Washington) - I wouldn’t make this move, but Carthon and Callahan have both made mention of preferring a weapon to a blocker in an ideal world. The Titans need along the OL is so egregious that I think it would be a mistake to pass on OT1 for WR3, but Odunze is an outstanding prospect in his own right.

Alabama

Under Fontenot, the Falcons have drafted 3 freakish athletic talents - Kyle Pitts, Drake London and Bijan Robinson. They follow their M.O. once again, but this time on the defensive side of the ball.

Dallas Turner has consolidated himself not only as the top edge rusher in this weal class, but also as the likely top defensive prospect period. he is a ridiculous athlete and played extremely well this past season, succeeding 2023 #3 overall selection Will Anderson Jr. He then destroyed the combine, and is reportedly a high character individual who interviewed well. He’s locked into the top-12 picks, and with the Falcons’ pass rush has been a weakness for a decade, the defensively-minded Raheem Morris may well hone is signed on the Crimson Tide outside linebacker.

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Top Alternative Option(s):

Trade down for Laiatu Latu (EDGE, UCLA) or Jared Verse (EDGE, Florida State) - Turner is the likely pick heer, but the Falcons could opt to trade down for EDGE 2 or EDGE 3. I still really like Latu, but medicals may sink his hopes of being a top-10 pick. Verse is a solid mid-1st round defensive end.

Washington

The Bears appear likely to trade this pick, as they only have four selections in the entire draft and still have holes on their roster. I could see them trading with the Colts - say - for No. 15 and a Day 2 pick, as Indianapolis reportedly like tight end Brock Bowers a lot. However, in a no-trade scenario, the Bears will likely take a receiver or edge rusher. If Turner falls past Atlanta, I’d be pretty sure that would be the pick for Chicago. However, with Atlanta heavy favorites to take him, I have Rome Odunze as the best player available. Moore-Allen-Odunze would be a high quality trio of receivers for 2024, and Allen is likely a 1-year rental for the Bears, so Odunze’s role would grow in 2025.

Rome Odunze has been a consistently stellar receiver for the Huskies, and would have likely graded out as a mid to late-1st rounder had he declared in 2023. He ended up going back to Washington and playing himself into top-10 consideration. He doesn’t possess the elite movement of Harrison Jr. or Nabers, but ran faster than expected at the combine. Moreover, he has exquisite body control, is a contested catch monster and is a gritty, competitive player. Odunze is also noted to have high character marks and is viewed as a very “safe” prospect with teams.

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Top Alternative Option(s):

Trade back for Laiatu Latu (EDGE, UCLA) or Jared Verse (EDGE, Florida State) - The Bears need another defensive end, and I think Verse in particular is a nice fit. He’d be better value in the #15-22 range than here.

Georgia

You often find that the glaringly obvious pick for a team in early March ends up being their 2nd or 3rd biggest need by the draft, and for the Jets, that was the case with their offensive line. They were prolific in free agency adding Tyron Smith, Morgan Moses (via trade) and John Simpson to starting deals, and Charlie Campbell similarly reported that the Jets are now inclined to take Brock Bowers or Rome Odunze here. Offensive Line isn't out of the question with all the injuries they've had, but with the Jets likely in a 2-year “win now” window, a weapons for Rodgers makes more sense than forcing an offensive lineman at #10 just in-case a starter gets hurt. There is the argument that they can be groomed for the future, but the Jets need players that can come in and play straight away this high up given their situation.

Brock Bowers is not an elite blocker, but he is a stellar receiving tight end prospect that would give Rodgers someone not named Garrett Wilson to throw to. An elite receiving tight end is pretty crucial in the modern NFL and an underrated commodity, as it presents a complete mismatch for defenses. Bowers is reportedly liked a lot by the Jets and although New York has Tyler Conklin, he’s a free agent in 2025. Conklin is not the same caliber of talent Brock Bowers is, and would be a pick reminiscent of Dalton Kincaid to the Bills in 2023.

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Top Alternative Option(s)

Rome Odunze (WR, Washington) - It isn’t inconceivable Odunze could get to #10. I’d expect the Jets take him over Bowers

Trade down - The Jets’ ideal move is to trade down. They could target a WR later in the 1st round like Brian Thomas Jr., Xavier Legette, or one of the Texas receivers.

LSU

Trade!

If they trade down, the Cardinals still need a WR1. Fortunately, there are a huge array of options including Brian Thomas Jr. (LSU), AD Mitchell (Texas), Xavier Worthy (Texas), Xavier Legette (South Carolina) and Ladd McConkey (Georgia). Most of these would be candidates in the 23-27 range, but I have Thomas higher than many and the Cardinals would pounce in this scenario to secure their future No. 1 wide-out.

Brian Thomas Jr. is a top-10 pick in terms of skill and upside, but is in a crowded receiving draft and is still raw, as well as lacking the toughness his size would indicate. I am a big believer in Thomas, though. He is exceptionally fast and a lethal threat with the ball in his hands - also having a lot of upside to grow and develop. I would be fine with him in the 11-20 range as WR4, as amongst the other talented receivers outside the consensus top-3 I think he’s comfortably the most talented.

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Top Alternative Option(s)

Rome Odunze (WR, Washington) - Odunze is someone the Cardinals apparently like, and their due diligence

Florida State

The Broncos will likely miss out on JJ McCarthy, and it is way too early for a Bo Nix or Michael Penix Jr. (both of whom are Day 2-caliber prospects). The Broncos appear best to trade down and try to bolster their defense this year. In a no-trade scenario, a 3-4 outside linebacker is needed as they have little at the position outside of Nik Bonnitto. This is a much deeper CB draft than EDGE, so pick tips that way for now.

Although I have Laiatu Latu from UCLA ahead of Jared Verse on my big board, I have Denver taking the double with Jared Verse. The former Seminole was touted as a top-5 prospect entering the season, but has slid a bit this season; he is still pretty raw after only 2 years in top-division football. Equally, Verse is a very talented edge rusher with good production in '22 - '23. A terrific combine also shows he has upside to continue to improve. Latu’s injury history and Robinson’s inconsistencies could help Verse being selected as the 2nd edge rusher.

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Top Alternative Option(s)

Laiatu Latu (EDGE, UCLA) - I prefer Latu to Verse, but many attribute Verse as being a safer bet and a good fit in Denver.

Quinyon Mitchell (CB, Toledo) or Terrion Arnold (CB, Alabama) - I have both corners rated higher than Latu or Verse. Mitchell is my CB1, but Arnold could be a better fit and highly talented nickel starter with boundary potential.

Trade down for Bo Nix (QB, Oregon) - Nix is commonly mocked to Denver; I personally just cannot justify it this high. I have Nix 55th on my big board. I could somewhat forgive the reach if they traded down into the 20’s, though.

Alabama

The Raiders are always a bit of an unknown in the draft, and that unknown will be compounded given yet another new regime will take the helm for the 2024 NFL Draft. Although they have huge needs at quarterback, Las Vegas - like Denver - won’t be in a good position to take one at #13. They do, however, need a new starting right tackle. They reportedly wanted Paris Johnson, Jr. last year before being jumped by Arizona. Guessing who they would take, however, is a challenge.

Beyond Joe Alt, this is a “horses for courses” type OL class with no order of consensus. Amarius Mims (Georgia) and Tyler Guyton (Oklahoma) are arguably the most talented tackle prospects in this entire class ceiling-wise, but rawness, sample size and injury concerns to varying degrees could make both mid-to-late 1st rounders. Troy Fautanu (Washington) has great tape, but is he a guard or tackle at the next level? Taliese Fuaga (Oregon State) and JC Latham (Alabama) are good right tackle prospects who could be projected to guard by some teams. Olu Fashanu (Penn State) has measurement concerns and some weaker tape in 2023, but has a great left tackle skill-set, good 2022 tape and reportedly high character. It really depends on the scheme and personal scouting process.

I’m 50/50 between JC Latham and Taliese Fuaga as the top right tackle off the board. Reading the tea leaves, more teams might have JC Latham higher, and I think there are fewer concerns about his ability to play RT. In my opinion, Latham isn’t a special prospect but I’ve grown fonder of him a bit as a tough-as-rails RT with ideal size and athletic traits to dominate the open-side. He would be a good fit in Las Vegas, and would be a long-term bookend to stellar left tackle Kolton Miller.

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Top Alternative Option(s)

Talise Fuaga (OT, Oregon State) or Amarius Mims (OT, Georgia) - I slightly prefer Fuaga’s ceiling, but he may be more of a guard at the next level, hence the Latham selection. I’ll get into Mims’ stock later, but he is a big draft crush of mine and I wouldn’t hate him going in this sort of range due to his talent.

Byron Murphy II (DT, Texas) - The Raiders could complete their DL by drafting Byron Murphy, who is consensus DT1 at this stage. Crosby-Wilkins-Murphy-Wilson would be a formidable 4-3 starting group.

Trade down for Michael Penix Jr. (QB, Washington) - Same as above; I have Penix as a R2-R3 prospect, but the Raiders need a quarterback. Penix is a reach here, but they could trade down and consider him then.

Penn State

The Saints’ offensive line is in complete disarray and should be the priority at #14. They will have 3-4 range worthy options, so don’t need to worry too much about being jumped. Ryan Ramczyk is likely to retire in the near future due to knee issues and is at a minimum in doubt for 2024. Trevor Penning is a massive bust. Andreas Peat (who wasn’t very good) is still a free agent. Cesar Ruiz is an overpaid 1st round disappointment who the Saints re-signed for far too much. Erik McCoy is the only sure thing on that line, and is a center.

I was torn between Troy Fautanu (Washington) and Olu Fashanu (Penn State). I prefer the former prospect; however, for what the Saints really need - a safe, quality blindside prospect with no positional question marks and quality - Fashanu might be a safer pick. Charlie Campbell was one of the first to report that Olu Fashanu was not seen by teams as the elite prospect the media had perpetuated; sure enough, he's been dropping recently on most mocks and is now a rare sight in any top-10. However, Fashanu possesses a lot of upside, quality size (hands aside) and is a safe bet to turn into a good NFL starter. The question is whether Fashanu can be more than “good”?

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Top Alternative Option(s)

Talise Fuaga (OT, Oregon State) or JC Latham - I love Mims, but the Saints cannot take a chance on an injury-prone prospect. Fuaga or Latham could be long-term starting right tackle for New Orleans

Brian Thomas Jr. (WR, LSU) - Recent developments tips this to being an offensive line, but I really like Thomas Jr. The Saints are devoid of receiving talent outside of Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed, the latter of whom is more of a W

Toledo

The Colts’ free agency moves were one of the more important to understand before committing to a mock draft direction, and it consolidated for me that CB is the likely play in Round 1. I like JuJu Brents, and Kenny Moore II is a good slot corner, but they need one more starting boundary cornerback. Chris Ballard is known for liking athletic RAS monsters and Quinyon Mitchell fits the bill perfectly.

Quinyon Mitchell is my CB1 at this juncture, and my 2nd defensive prospect in general (behind Dallas Turner). Mitchell is extremely smooth, fast and fluid with prototypical boundary cornerback size and blanket coverage ability. He’d round off a quality cornerback group in Indianapolis and I’d be surprised if he fell past the Jaguars at No. 17 at this juncture.

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Top Alternative Option(s)

Terrion Arnold (CB, Alabama) - Some would argue Arnold is a better fit for the Colts, and both MItchell and Arnold are roughly equivalent prospects. I have Mitchell as my CB1 but it's not a huge gap.

Trade up for Brock Bowers (TE, Georgia) - I nearly mocked a 2nd trade swapping #9 and #15. Many think the Bowers’ floor is the Broncos at #12. The Colts are rumored to be very interested. A trade up with - say - Chicago at #9 could be a win-win for both franchises, as the Colts could revert to a Day 2 cornerback, and the Bears can recoup a later Day 2 selection and take an edge rusher at a more palatable range.

Texas

According to Charlie Campbell, the Seahawks are considering their offensive line with this pick. This makes sense, as their OL is an utter disaster. Equally, Byron Murphy II is my top-rated player on the board and would fit the MO of Mike MacDonald building a run wall a-la Baltimore and Michigan. Fautanu could easily be the pick I settle on, but I have a niggling feeling the Seahawks may address their IOL on Day 2 and take DT1 over a guard in Round 1.

Byron Murphy II has proven his freakish athleticism throughout this pre-draft process, and he really impressed teams with his on-field tape, according to Charlie Campbell. He is a touch undersized but has dangerous interior pass rushing potential; he’s also a very solid run defender. After passing on Carter at
#5 last year, the Seahawks now get their interior defensive lineman in 2024’s 1st round instead.

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Top Alternative Option(s)

Troy Fautanu (G/OT, Washington) or Taliese Fuaga (OT/G, Oregon State) - Fautanu is a commonly mocked fit with new OC Grubb, and the Seahawks IOL is awful, so they need multiple interior upgrades. Fuaga is a dark horse, as many project him to guard for the pros.

Trade Down - Schneider is notorious for trading down in the draft. For someone wanting to come up for a tackle, this is the sweet spot.