Round 1
After trading a massive haul to get here, Carolina has their pick of the top QB's. Stroud has good, if not elite, tools and his combination of size, ball placement, and athleticism make him an appealing option for Frank Reich and QB Coach Josh McCown here.
Young has everything you want in a franchise QB, aside from size. He has enough arm strength to make every throw, excellent pocket awareness, throws with great anticipation, and he possesses above-average escapability. He'd be a great fit in Houston as they look to officially move on from the Deshaun Watson era for good.
PROJECTED TRADE WITH ARIZONA
The Titans are rumored to have interest in moving up to number 3, so let's have some fun with it. As the Ryan Tannehill and Derrick Henry era appears to be nearing its end, it makes sense for Tennessee to look towards the future. Richardson has a higher floor than many give him credit for, with plenty of examples of him going through reads and making high-level throws on tape. That being said, he will need some time to develop. But with his unique traits, the Titans could easily feel he's worth the gamble here and allow him to sit for a year behind Ryan Tannehill.
I didn't go into this exercise anticipating 4 QB's going in the top 4 picks, but here we are. The Colts need a franchise QB. They've tried the patchwork approach of rotating through veteran QB's, and they're no longer in "win now" mode. Levis' 2022 tape was not great, but he showed NFL ability in 2021. His combination of size, arm strength, and overall athleticism make him an intriguing prospect here for a franchise who needs to finally find a successor to Andrew Luck.
With the top 4 QB's off the board, Seattle now has its choice of the top defensive prospects. Pete Carroll emphasized the need to get more dynamic up front, and that's exactly what this pick allows them to do. Seattle hasn't had a dynamic pass rusher like this since Frank Clark was dealt to Kansas City, and pairing Anderson with Uchenna Nwosu would give them a nice pass rush duo to build with.
What says "biting kneecaps" more than drafting a Defensive Tackle? In all seriousness, Dan Campbell is an old-school coach in many respects and he'd undoubtedly embrace the opportunity to add arguably the most impactful lineman in the draft here. Carter has off-field issues that must be considered, but his talent will keep him from falling far.
A caveat here - I think the Raiders WANT to trade this pick, but I had a hard time finding a good fit with a team who would want to move up this high with the QB's off the board. While Christian Gonzalez is my CB1, Witherspoon has a ton of fans across the league. His ball production and physicality are elite, even without prototypical size. The Raiders have a number of holes on their roster, so Witherspoon is an obvious fit as a high-end talent at a position of need.
The Falcons have emphasized their front 7 recently - Calais Campbell, David Onyemata, Arnold Ebiketie, Grady Jarrett, Kaden Elliss, and Troy Andersen were all added or extended in the last calendar year. With that said, they still need some pass rush juice. Wilson is a scheme-versatile option whose best days are ahead of him. Christian Gonzalez is certainly a consideration here as well.
I've been projecting Peter Skoronski here for a while, but I think Johnson is the better true OT prospect. Chicago has an obvious need at OT and Johnson looks like a potential 10-year starter at LT, giving Justin Fields more support as the Bears look to start building towards contention.
The Eagles have more pressing needs, but they also have the luxury of 2 1st round picks. Gonzalez has all the tools to be a superstar caliber DB in the NFL, and Howie Roseman is always seemingly one step ahead of the league. Despite Darius Slay and James Bradberry re-signing, the Eagles know that 1) it's a passing league and 2) those guys will both be on the wrong side of 30 this year. This is a BPA approach at a premium position.
PROJECTED TRADE WITH TENNESSEE
The Cardinals, after trading down from 3, will be equipped with ample additional draft capital. Here, they grab the toolsiest pass rush prospect in the draft in Smith. After seeing Chandler Jones and J.J. Watt both depart their roster in recent years, the Cardinals desperately need pass rush help. Smith's freakish athleticism has drawn comparisons to former Arizona first rounder Haason Reddick, but this front office and coaching staff should be better equipped to utilize Smith's talents, since HC Jonathan Gannon coached Reddick in Philadelphia last year.
WR is a popular pick here in many mock drafts, but there's plenty of value to be had further down the board. Van Ness is another toolsy prospect who flashed as a rotational player at Iowa. Houston's defensive line currently lacks difference makers, and Van Ness represents a good chance at changing that picture.
Mekhi Becton can't be counted upon to stay healthy. Duane Brown's grandchildren are almost NFL eligible. George Fant is a free agent. The OT situation in New York isn't ideal, so adding my favorite pass blocker in this class would be a sensible choice here.
Skoronski being available at 14 would qualify as a minor upset. While he has shorter arms than you'd like in an OT, Skoronski should be able to hold his own on the edge in the NFL. If not, he has an All-Pro caliber ceiling inside.
The first WR off the board! JSN dealt with injuries this past year, but his talent is undeniable. And with a glaring need at WR following the departures of Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb, I'm sure the chance to stick it to Aaron Rodgers will be hard to pass up for GM Brian Gutekunst.
This would be a wildly unpopular pick. I get it. But consider:
Robinson is a top 5 prospect in this draft
The Commanders will probably take a QB in next year's 1st round
Ron Rivera was in Carolina when they drafted Christian McCaffrey
I completely understand the arguments against it. But adding an elite offensive playmaker with an eye towards next year's QB class does make sense, and Robinson's "fall" has to stop somewhere. Sorry, Commanders fans, but you'd love what he'd give you on the field.