NoHeroes94 "Way Too Early" 2024 NFL Mock Draft V0

published on 5/4/2023

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Round 1

Picks 1-16
1. Cardinals: Caleb Williams, QB, USC

So, this is my “way too early” 2024 mock draft. This will not be accurate or close to the truth, it’s just a fun exercise to see what players rise, and what players fall. All draft positions are based on current Super-Bowl odds at the time of writing.

Before I begin, a review of my final mock draft. Feel free to skip to Pick #1 if you don’t care.

I was pretty happy with my results this year, and my performance was basically identical to 2022, having the same picks correct, and the same number of players correctly mocked to the 1st round.

In summary, I got 8 picks correct in my mock draft (player to team in 1st round). They were: Bryce Young (Panthers), Will Anderson Jr. (Texans), Paris Johnson Jr. (Cardinals), Bijan Robinson (Falcons), Nolan Smith (Eagles), Jahmyr Gibbs (Lions), Lukas Van Ness (Packers) and Emmanuel Forbes (Commanders). I did also get Joey Porter Jr. (Steelers), but he went with the first pick of the 2nd round, so I’ll count it as 8, not 9.

Regarding 1st rounders, 28 out of 31 players I mocked to the 1st round went in the 1st round. The only 3 that didn’t were Joey Porter Jr. (Steelers, 2-32), Will Levis (Titans, 2-33) and Brian Branch (Lions, 2-45).

Based on The Huddle Report media scoring, I would have gotten a 44, which would have ranked J-4th. On, I finished J-16th out of 174.

Correct Picks (2020 - 2023):

2023 - 8
2022 - 8
2021 - 12
2020 - 6

Players Correctly Mocked to 1st Round (2020 - 2023):

2023 - 28
2022 - 28
2021 - 27
2020 - 24

Final Mock Draft Score (2 points for player mocked to correct team in 1st; 1 point for player correctly mocked to 1st round) (2020 - 2023):

2023: 44
2022: 44
2021: 51
2020: 36


The previous regime gave in and offered Kyler Murray a huge contract, even though he’s one of the most overrated players in the NFL. He’s a terrific talent, but his ball security has been an issue and is very injury prone, limiting his effectiveness throughout a whole season as a dual-threat quarterback. If the Cardinals have substantial draft capital, I could see them moving on unless Kyler Murray comes back in 2023 and plays amazingly. Their roster is a 1-3 year reclamation project, so Kyler’s big contract could be a waste whilst they rebuild.

Caleb Williams is the early front runner for No. 1 overall, and seems destined to be a high 1st round pick after an incredible 2 seasons, specifically this one after transferring to USC. He won the Heisman, and deservedly so. I think Williams would have to have a dreadful ‘23 season to not be considered a top-3 QB in this draft class, at worst. If he remains his current course, he should be the consensus QB1.

2. Cardinals: Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State

The Cardinals will still likely be in BPA mode by the next draft, and they will be without a true No. 1 receiver if DeAndre Hopkins is traded and Hollywood Brown isn’t extended (who isn’t a true No. 1 anyway). Marvin Harrison Jr. is an elite prospect who could be the next Ja’Marr Chase, completely dominating in college football last season and having elite physical traits.

3. Colts: Olumuyiwa Fashanu, OT, Penn State

I was surprised Olu Fashanu didn’t declare, because I thought he had a very feasible chance of being a top-20 draft pick this past season. He has the skill-set of a franchise Left Tackle. Raimann improved as a rookie, but the entire of the Colts’ offensive line is on watch, and he wouldn’t stop the Colts upgrading with a premium talent like Fashanu. Raimann could kick into guard if necessary.

4. Buccaneers: Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina

The Buccaneers could be in the running for the No. 1 overall pick, as their Super Bowl winning roster has collapsed, and their starting quarterback is Baker Mayfield. Drake Maye was incredible in ‘22 and put himself on the map as a potential 1st round QB.

5. Titans: Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame

The Titans had a really good draft. I thought Skoronski was the best offensive lineman in the draft, Jaelyn Duncan in the 6th was an insane steal, and Will Levis was worth the shot atop the 2nd round. They have options here, and would probably draft BPA, but I think they will continue to give Levis a chance - who may not start until 2024 - by ensuring his offensive line can keep him upright. Alt is growing into his bigger body after starting as a Tight End, but has good size and length and was exceptional for Notre Dame last season.

6. Commanders: Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia

The Commanders have a lot of cooks in the kitchen at Tight End, but none of them can really cook. Brock Bowers is an elite tight end prospect and one of the best draft prospects coming out next year, and could be Kyle Pitts 2.0 and go very early despite positional value question marks because of his ability. Bowers is close to a No. 1 receiver and it wouldn’t shock me if a future Charlie Hot Press said something to the effect of “Bowers is the top non-QB prospect available in this draft according to several teams”. We’ll see, I suppose.

7. Falcons: Quinn Ewers, QB, Texas

Ridder will be given a chance to succeed this year, and I think this front office has put him in a good position to do so. In a weak division, if they are drafting this low, they’d probably look to move on and possibly trade up for higher upside options at QB. Ewers could end up being QB1, or slip to Day 2 or 3. He has amazing physical tools, but was pretty inconsistent for Texas. If he can become more consistent this year, he’ll be right behind Caleb Williams in the 1st round conversation.

8. Steelers: Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB, Alabama

Joey Porter Jr. and Corey Trice Jr. were two good value CB picks, but the Steelers could do with one more premium pick being invested into the position. Kool-Aid McKinstry appears to be the very clear favorite CB1 entering the 2023 season. Of course, the proof will be in the pudding, but he has excellent size, traits and upside and did well in both ‘21 and ‘22. If he continues to develop, he could become the runaway CB1 in a class that looks - at present - a fair amount weaker than the ‘23 CB group.

9. Bears: Jared Verse, DE, Florida State

The Bears made some quality IDL picks in the 2nd and 3rd round in Gervon Dexter and Zaach Pickens, but their pass rush looks anemic still, and will need to put some premium resources into that unit. Verse was another player I was surprised to return to school, although less than Fashanu. He’s raw, but Verse had a chance at the 1st round this year - if he can improve, Verse could be in the running to be EDGE 1 in this coming draft class.

11. Raiders: Michael Hall Jr., DT, Ohio State

The Raiders still have a lot of holes on their defense, namely at corner and Defensive Tackle. This looks like a good interior defensive line unit, and Michael Hall is my early favorite to be DT1. He is a touch undersized but is fast and has interior pass rushing ability, whilst possessing significant upside.

10. Rams: J.C. Latham, OT, Alabama

The Rams are picking at No. 10 based on present odds, but unless McVay can weave more magic, I think the Rams could be drafting higher than this. On paper, I think they have the 2nd worst roster in the NFL to only the Titans. The Rams OL really struggled via injury last year. If they stay healthy, I think Avila-Allen-Bruss could be a solid IOL trio, but Joe Noteboom doesn’t appear to be a franchise Left Tackle. They could do with one. Latham is raw and penalty prone, but has a supreme skill-set and played well overall at RT for the Crimson Tide. If he transition to LT comes naturally, he could be a high draft pick.

12. Patriots: Graham Barton, G/OT, Duke

I found it curious the Patriots continuously ignored their offensive line during the draft, as both OT spots are up for grabs long-term. Barton was very impressive for Duke last season, and if he continues to develop, could be a riser for the NFL Draft.

13. Packers: Maason Smith, DT, LSU

The Packers have a good duo of heavy set 3-4 DE/DT types in Kenny Clark and Devonte Wyatt, but if Jordan Love pans out, they could have a contractual head-ache with Clark - they could also do with a better nose tackle. The hype on Smith is on pause after being injured last season, but he was very good in 2021 and has phenomenal traits, which the Packers typically value.

14. Bears: Ja'Tavion Sanders, TE, Texas

Ryan Pace was obsessed with Tight Ends, but ironically, the Poles-era Bears are due to get rather thin at the position. Cole Kmet is a quality player for the Bears, but is an impending free agent after the season. Sanders isn’t quite the prospect Bowers is, but he is very athletic and showed 1st round mismatch ability last season.

15. Seahawks: Prospect not selected

Pick: Jeremiah Trotter Jr. (LB, Clemson)

Jordyn Brooks is coming off a torn ACL, and could miss most of 2023 - Bobby Wagner has re-joined the Seahawks, but isn’t long for the NFL. The Seahawks could do with an investment into their linebacking corps. Son of former Eagles Pro Bowler Jeremiah Trotter Sr., Trotter Jr. seems to be the LB1 heading into the season, possessing quality coverage and pass rush ability. This doesn’t seem like a super talented linebacking class.

16. Vikings: Dallas Turner, OLB, Alabama

The Vikings will be in the market for a QB, but right now, I’m not confident in any of the other QB’s to mock them in the 1st round. Meanwhile, Za’Darius Smith appears disgruntled, and Danielle Hunter is an impending free agent. Turner showed some serious ability in 2021 and 2022; with Will Anderson Jr. now heading to the NFL, Turner will have the keys to the car and could become a 1st round pick with another quality season.

Picks 1-16