Free Agency Mock, Version 4.0
Came across an interesting tidbit of info: since 2018, there have been 18 instances of teams with a Top 15 pick that hired a new head coach who had been an OC or DC in the previous year. In 16 of those 18 instances (89%), the team drafted a player from the new coach's side of the ball. This could come into play this year with Arizona at 3 (LaFleur/OC), Tennessee at 4 (Saleh/DC), Cleveland at 6 (Monken/OC), Miami at 11 (Hafley/DC), and Baltimore at 14 (Minter/DC). Because of this, I changed some of my selections and I now have 4 of these 5 teams taking players from the new coach's side of the ball. Two full rounds here.
Round 2
Johnson's 9.82 RAS is 57th-best since 1987 among all CB's, so he will likely be a late 1st/early 2nd Round pick. I will note that the team could be in a position to field calls from teams that might want to move up to take Ty Simpson, especially with Arizona potentially lurking as a Simpson landing spot at #34. However, it's hard for me to see another obvious team that would be interested other than the Steelers, and they don't pick until #53, which would be a pretty large drop down the board for the Jets. By the way, since the Jets have three 1st Round picks in 2027, I do not see them as a Simpson team at all; there will be far better prospects next year and it wouldn't make sense to invest such an early pick on him for that very reason.
While it's certainly possible that Simpson goes in Round 1, here I have him landing with the team that I feel makes the most sense for him.
Especially after going with Bailey at #4, this would almost certainly be an offensive pick. With Boston slipping to Round 2, this is an appropriate spot for him.
I had the Raiders ticketed for Ola Ioane at #14 before the failed Crosby trade, so here is another guard that could help life for Fernando Mendoza, at least once he takes over for Cousins. The Oregon man should be a plug-and-play starter and should be a plus in the run game.
The talk that Downs could be in play at #5 overall is proof that safety play is very important for John Harbaugh. OK, how about McNeil-Warren, then? This also makes back-to-back Emmanuels off the board. Why do I feel like I'm watching Cinemax late at night in the early 1990's? I kid, I kid.
Danielle Hunter was signed to that gargantuan one-year deal, but that's all it was, just a one-year deal. Howell might slip to Round 2 due to a lack of arm length.
More beef up front for the DL, as Young offers pass rush juice as well as being a stout run defender. It's also not out of the question that Myles Garrett gets traded.
Cisse helped himself with a fine Pro Day in which he ran a 4.40 40 time and jumped to a 41-inch vertical leap. His 9.12 RAS score is also in line with what Tobin desires.
Now the Saints hit on the WR need with the versatile Bernard, who won't wow you with anything in particular but who has solid size and inside-outside versatility.
Standing 6'4, Brazzell turned in a 4.37 Combine time, and I'll state it again, this new regime will probably be enamored with speed. We know the Dolphins will be prime candidate to take a receiver early, and this may be too late, frankly.
This is already the Jets' fourth pick in the top 44. So far they have added Reese, Tyson, and Johnson. Here's an addition to the middle of the defense, as veteran Demario Davis should not be considered a long-term solution.
The Ravens often have talented players fall into their laps. Here's another possibility with the polarizing Woods.
Lavonte David just retired, so an early pick on a linebacker makes sense. Rodriguez improved his draft stock greatly with fine athletic testing (9.23 RAS) and you know his motor is not in question.
Because of his foot injury, I could see Banks dropping to this spot, and certainly into Round 2. We've seen Chris Ballard draft players with injury concerns before, and of note is that both Grover Stewart and DeForest Buckner are entering contract years.
Hey, the Falcons finally get to make a pick! (The Rams say thank you to them, and to former GM Terry Fontenot.) I need to get Ponds back into the top 50 after a downright blistering 4.31 40 at the Indiana Pro Day. Yeah, he's diminutive. But watch the tape: he doesn't play small. Sure, it may work against him in some ways, but I just can't see him slipping out of Round 2 with that 40 time. Billy Bowman Jr. was awful as a nickel last year, which is how Ponds would likely be deployed.
Brian Flores is a defensive wizard, but the team has suffered some DL depth losses, and this is even before talk of trading away Jonathan Greenard for cap reasons.
Think Detroit's OL was an issue last year, exacerbated by Taylor Decker's release? Yeah, me too, and the Proctor/Bisontis pairing would do a lot to rectify that problem. Bisontis would kick inside to guard.
Scott is similar to Ponds as a relatively undersized nickel (not as undersized as Ponds is) who is a playmaker, actually racking up 5 sacks for Miami last year. The current nickel is Chau Smith-Wade, a 2024 5th-rounder, whose 57.0 PFF grade last year was 79th among 114 qualified CB's.
Finally making a pick due to last year's Micah Parsons trade, the team could attempt to address its poor coverage unit with Muhammad, who helped himself with a nice 4.42 40 time.
In need of an upgrade at LG (and arguably at LT because Broderick Jones hasn't delivered, but I digress), Dunker might fit the bill. He was a RT last season at Iowa but is widely expected to play guard in the pros.
We know about Howie Roseman's emphasis on edge depth, so the high-motor Jacas could be on the radar here. He had a strong Senior Bowl that impressed scouts and coaches and is coming off an 11-sack season at Illinois.
Rutledge's 9.52 RAS should appeal to Mike McDaniel, since you know he can move; the Bolts need to find an upgrade on Trevor Penning at LG.
In this deep safety class, the Jags finally make a pick with Kilgore, who blazed a 4.4 40 time and whose athletic testing was a major plus.
The Bears lost two starting safeties in free agency, though they signed Coby Bryant to take one of those spots. An early pick on the position isn't out of the question.
CMC is coming off what seemed like a million-touch season, and the depth chart looks pretty grim behind him, with last year's backup Brian Robinson having signed in Atlanta. The 49ers at least had Jordan Mason in 2024 to handle a lot of the work, but I could see an early pick being used on a capable #2 back who could take over for CMC when/if he gets hurt.
Adding to the LB depth here with the son of a former NFL player.
After the DJ Moore trade, the Bears still have Luther Burden and Rome Odunze to soak up targets at receiver. However, depth behind those 2 is an issue, and Burden has a lengthy injury history dating back to at least college. (Not to mention that Odunze was gimpy for the final few weeks of last season.) Bell helped himself with a 4.40 40 time at the Combine, and it's thought that his production would have been much better last year had the QB play been better at UConn.
The explosive Golday is added for depth behind current starters Nate Landman and Omar Speights at the position.
Stowers, the converted QB, isn't expected to provide any help in run-blocking but offers intriguing athletic potential as a pure pass-catching TE. He's also been in on a Top 30 visit.
If McDonald might be an option for the Pats at #31 if he's there, then why not Hunter here in the late 2nd Round? The two are probably the best pure run-stuffing DT's in the class.
With insane 4.33 speed and a Lance Zierlein player comp to Chris Carson, OK, this works. Zach Charbonnet will miss most of the season and likely won't be back to 100% until 2027, and apart from him, Emanuel Wilson is slated to handle the bulk of the carries as it stands right now. While I like Wilson as an underrated pickup from the Packers, he obviously can't do it by himself. Washington would be an electric complement who should get immediate work.