Free Agency Mock, Version 4.0

Mendoza will be happy that his first NFL center will be Tyler Linderbaum. That said, it looks like the team is going to follow through on its stated desire to start a veteran first, as Kirk Cousins has been signed. For some reason.

Though the Jets have made several free agent signings on defense, Reese still makes sense for this pick... but only if the Jets see him as an edge rusher, at least in part. If they see him as an off-ball linebacker, the positional value simply is not there. If that happened to be the case, then Bailey is the likely choice. The Jets did meet with Reese at his Pro Day.

Arizona can go for its top-rated OL or its top-rated defender here. In thinking about the OL, Isaac Seumalo was a nice signing, but he's 33 and the team still needs more long-term building blocks other than LT Paris Johnson. However, Bailey could be under consideration as the first true edge player chosen. If Bailey went to the Jets at #2, the history of Arizona drafting versatile, "positionless" athletes likely would point to a Reese pick. (Hat tip to Mr. Bitter for that reminder.) If Reese does go #2, this feels like a close call between Bailey and one of Mauigoa/Fano/Freeling, likely in that order. Because of the intro message and because LaFleur is the new coach, from the offensive side of the ball, I will opt for Mauigoa. I believe he could be seen as the best possible RT that they could draft to pair with Johnson.

In addition, Mauigoa has moved from the slight second choice to the solid favorite to be the first OL chosen, now at -210.

I noted on my last mock that there have been rumblings of Love landing with the Titans. Well, after several moves in free agency addressed to the defense, including a big signing of John Franklin-Myers, perhaps the team wants to give a jolt to its offense in the form of Love after all. However, picking Bain (or Bailey, if available) would complete the DL with Jermaine Johnson as a fellow edge player, with Jeffery Simmons and JFM as a powerful inside duo. And not that Adam Schefter's "reporting" is always true, but he did say on an ESPN draft special that from what he's heard, he would be very surprised if the Titans took Love. I mean, they shouldn't pick him, although we can't predict picks based on what we think teams SHOULD do, of course.

By the way, both Bain and Love were in for Top 30 visits, as were Tate and Delane. I'd have to think that the latter two could be options if the team traded down a bit. I had Bain here before, but Anthony Amico tweeted something compelling that has swayed me away from him in this spot. He pointed out that there have been five Day 1 DE's drafted by Robert Saleh teams (as either the SF DC or NY head coach). The five: Will McDonald, Mykel Williams, Jermaine Johnson, Nick Bosa, and Solomon Thomas. Four of the five had a 9.22 RAS or higher, with Mykel Williams unable to work out last year due to injury, and all five had 33-inch arms or more. Bailey put up a 9.67 RAS and has 33.75-inch arms. If Bailey is off the board here, this choice could come down to Love or Styles. Once again, due to Saleh's presence, I'll opt for a defensive player here, in this case Bailey.

Do the Giants take Styles after signing Tremaine Edmunds in free agency? I suppose it does make it slightly less likely. The G-Men obviously didn't get Linderbaum, but they did re-sign Jermaine Eluemunor, their RT. In addition to what Schefter said about Love being unlikely for the Titans, he says the same about the Giants. It is worth noting that the Giants have had Love in on a Top 30 visit. But even though this is a new regime, the Saquon Barkley era didn't exactly yield a lot of winning results. Does ownership really want to go back to the "pick a RB early" well? I think it might be between Styles and Downs, then, and although we know about Edmunds, I just think Downs is more likely to slide than Styles is, and it's not like Harbaugh isn't used to big-time LB's on his defenses.

The Browns have moved to sign players at every spot but LT along the OL. With a pick still at #24, maybe the plan could be to address this hole then. However, Freeling is possibly the most projectable pure LT in this class. I really could see this as a choice between Freeling and Tate, and Tate is the current betting favorite for the pick.

Was the Leo Chenal signing an indication that the team doesn't expect Styles to last to this pick? You can argue for pass rush help, Caleb Downs, a CB, or a WR here. Charlie seems to think that the team wants pass rush help, but the team has added Odafe Oweh and K'Lavon Chaisson in free agency. If Love is there, I believe he'd be the pick, no questions asked. However, if the Titans or Giants take him, I think Styles would be the guy if available. If both Love and Styles are gone, then I think it could be a choice between the top WR (Tate) or the top CB (Delane).

Styles, Delane, and Tate were all in on Top 30 visits.

The Saints have shored up the OL with the signing of guard David Edwards. They've signed Etienne, which was a clear indication that they didn't believe that Love would be available with this pick. A WR makes obvious sense because there's almost nothing behind Chris Olave. Bailey or Bain, if available, could make sense, as Cam Jordan is a free agent, but Mickey Loomis has prioritized arm length at DE, so Bain would be unlikely here. Delane would make sense too, as Alontae Taylor signed with the Titans. It's a difficult call, but I will make the switch to Delane (even if Tate is still available), because the CB1 of the draft is worth more than the WR1 this year, in my view. And Tate would be the team's WR2. And isn't a plus athlete. In short, Delane has more value, as a shutdown corner from LSU with good size who blazed a 4.38 40 at his Pro Day.

I wanted to add that extremely reliable beat reporter Nick Underhill stated on April 2 that Bain's lack of arm length would NOT preclude Loomis from picking him, so with that in mind, I'm currently 60/40 in favor of Delane over Bain here.

Any thought of Love lasting to this pick were put to rest when the Saints signed Travis Etienne; the Chiefs plucked Kenneth Walker to fill their RB need shortly thereafter. The team has lost its top 2 CB's (both to the Rams, ironically) as well as safety Bryan Cook in free agency. So this could be a spot for Downs or Delane (if available) for sure. We know about the WR need, but I have a suspicion that a Tyreek Hill reunion could be on the horizon. As such, I think Delane would have priority if available. I also think Mr. Bitter's pick here, Kenyon Sadiq, is a sneaky possibility. It's likely Travis Kelce's final season, and Sadiq's freakish athleticism (4.39 40 time with a 43.5-inch vertical leap) has a chance to land him in the top 10. If so, this is the spot for him. However, his Over/Under is only 15.5 at the moment, with heavy -200 juice to the Over. I will opt for Bain, who is still available, as the edge depth is sorely lacking behind George Karlaftis.

Boye Mafe essentially replaces Trey Hendrickson in free agency, and it was at a reasonable cost. Bryan Cook has helped the secondary at one safety spot. Though Downs is there in this mock, he doesn't fit the emphasis on RAS that the Bengals prioritize, and perhaps Duke Tobin tries to throw Joe Burrow a bone with Freeling up front. I get the sense that if the 2026 season goes haywire for the Bengals, Burrow is going to ask out and maybe even try to pull a Carson Palmer on them. Note that McCoy would fit the RAS mold, so it wouldn't surprise me in the least if he were the guy. As would Sadiq, if we're considering the whole "throw Joe Burrow a bone" thing.

This is a new Packers-Miami regime, and the Packers are RAS drafters. Well, Sadiq put up a 9.43 RAS, so he could be in play. Of course, many will slot a WR here after the Jaylen Waddle trade, and that certainly is a possibility. However, the top 3 of Tate/Lemon/Tyson are not RAS freaks at WR. Neither is Downs. Going back to the intro message, new coach Jeff Hafley is a defensive guy. With McCoy blazing a 4.38 at his Pro Day and with him finally being able to show he's fully healthy, I think he becomes in play in the Top 15. Let's put him here.

Even star safeties often fall in the draft further than the public thinks they will, and Downs wasn't the best athletic tester and he doesn't have great size. Now, that doesn't mean that he isn't a great football player, of course. Still, in the draft, these things often matter. Dallas says thank you very much.

The Rams have taken care of the CB need in a big way, trading for Trent McDuffie and signing his former KC teammate Jaylen Watson. With the way this mock has fallen, a WR (likely Lemon or Tyson) is likely the favorite for this pick. I keep flip-flopping between Tyson and Lemon, and it's quite possible that the team could prefer Tyson, who is a more natural future replacement for Davante Adams as an X receiver on the outside. However, Tyson has still not worked out due to a hamstring injury from the college season, other than doing the bench press at the Combine; he's scheduled to work out for teams on April 17. Meanwhile, Lemon just worked out at USC's Pro Day, with none other than Rams GM Les Snead in attendance. He ran a 40 that was apparently timed between 4.48-4.53 by teams that were there, and that should be just fine for his draft stock, as it's pretty much the same as Carnell Tate's 40 time. Lemon might make a more immediate impact than Tyson anyway, and I will make the switch back to him, the guy who was top-4 in YPRR against both man and zone coverage among draft-eligible WR's. If Tyson is able to work out without incident at his Pro Day and if his 40 time happens to be better than expected, I may go back to him, although the Rams may not be a team overly enamored with 40 times. His tape is so enticing, but his injury history is a concern. Yes, the Rams drafted Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua in the recent past, both of whom had lengthy injury histories in college, but both were mid-round picks. This is the #13 overall pick. Perhaps Lemon's toughness and YAC ability and better health will win the day, and that is my current expectation.

Eric DeCosta has specifically stated that he favors younger players with 1st Round picks because the data shows that they have a higher upside. This should rule out someone like Mesidor, if the team was considering a DL pick. Keldric Faulk is only 20 and has elite size and length, so he could be in play. Remember the intro message, as Jesse Minter is the last new coach for a team with a Top 15 pick, so this could portend to a defensive selection. However, I've already gone 4-for-4 with the other 4 new coaches, so let's get frisky, ha. OL is the betting favorite for the pick, and last year the guard play was especially poor, with apologies to Andrew Vorhees and Daniel Faalele. Faalele is a free agent and John Simpson was signed to replace him. However, Vorhees is still penciled in as a starter. Fano, who was Utah's RT but is supposed to have positional versatility, could be a huge upgrade as a guard. In fact, with Ronnie Stanley in a contract year, it's not out of the question that Fano could have a shot at LT next year. In any case, he checks a lot of boxes, since he is only 21 and since new OC Declan Doyle's scheme will emphasize zone blocking (he was the Bears' OC last year under the tutelage of Ben Johnson). This makes an agile OL like Fano a good fit.

Tampa Bay struggled to run the ball effectively last season, and while Bucky Irving was injured for much of the year and while Rachaad White is a plodder, the OL struggled to run block. The worst culprit? LG Ben Bredeson, who fashioned a catastrophic 44.1 run-blocking grade on PFF, 8th-worst among all guards. LT Tristan Wirfs and C Graham Barton were 1st Round picks under Jason Licht, so we know he isn't shy about spending early draft capital on the OL. (In fact, RG Cody Mauch and RT Luke Goedeke were both 2nd Round picks.)

The Jets have added a slew of defensive starters in free agency, and with almost nothing in the WR room behind Garrett Wilson and Adonai Mitchell, maybe the Sun Devil could offer a size mismatch on the outside for Gang Green. As I mentioned in the Rams blurb at #13, if not for the injury history, Tyson may have been the clear-cut WR1 of this class.