Final Mock, Version 5.0

This is going to be Mendoza, without question, even though Kirk Cousins is likely to start for at least the first few games.

There's been a lot of speculation about this pick, Reese or Bailey. Early in the process, beat writers seemed to think the team preferred Reese, leading to him being a solid -250 favorite or so for the better part of the last month. But then in early April, all 3 of Peter Schrager, Daniel Jeremiah, and Albert Breer reported that Bailey was their guy. As such, Bailey became the slight favorite. But I'm swayed to go back to Reese because the Jets apparently canceled a Top 30 visit with Bailey. If he was the guy, why do that? How could it hurt to meet with him about a week before the draft? Almost sounds like they know Reese is their guy so they didn't want to waste Bailey's time. Maybe I'm wrong, but that's my interpretation, and now Reese is back to being the slight favorite for the pick. Another factor that is swaying me toward Reese is that this is the beat reporters' inclination, and their info in recent drafts has proven to be spot-on.

EDIT: On Tuesday morning, Reese is all the way up to -400, his biggest lead of draft season.

If Reese is there for Arizona, perhaps Mr. Bitter's point that uber-athletic tweeners are destined to land with the Cardinals will come true after all. Yes, Mauigoa or Fano could be logical if the team decides that it must address its OL, which has no long-term building blocks apart from LT Paris Johnson. Maybe another team wants to trade up for Reese or Bailey and Arizona finds value in trading down. We've seen Monti Ossenfort do it before. Another reason that Arizona might go with Reese or Bailey is that the team has had both in on Top 30's; that said, the team did sneak in a late Top 30 with Mauigoa. While I am sure that Arizona's ideal scenario is to trade back and still get Mauigoa, what if no trade down materializes? In that case, I happen to be swayed by that tidbit of info I mentioned on an earlier mock: of the last 18 cases of a team having a top-15 pick in which they hired a new head coach that was a DC or OC in the previous season, that team picked a player from the new coach's side of the ball. That tips the scales to Mauigoa for me.

I believe the Titans board will have Reese/Bailey in the top 2 spots, but if both are gone, I think Love may get the edge over someone like Styles. What gives me pause is that Peter Schrager said on Monday night that he has heard that the Titans are NOT in on Love. With Bailey available in this mock, it makes the call easier for the team imo.

With the blockbuster trade of Dexter Lawrence to the Bengals, it gives the Giants picks 5 and 10. This puts them squarely in the range of OL's for either pick, WR's for either pick, or Downs for either pick. Personally, I don't see them taking Downs here, as I think it's entirely possible that he lasts to 10, if not likely. What we know is that Love and Styles won't be there at 10. Given that, I think we can deduce that the pick would come down to Love or Styles, and I believe that Love, RB value be damned, would be the selection.

TRADE! Cleveland trades #6, #39, and #141 to Dallas for #12 and #20.

If Cleveland were to stick and pick, WR or OL are by far the most likely considerations. Still, this is a prime trade-down spot for the analytically-driven Browns front office, and I could see Dallas just jonesing to add a perceived top defender in this class, pun intended, especially as their LB corps is a joke as it stands right now. Though it loses its second 1st rounder, Dallas does still get to pick again early in Round 2, which should put it in the range of a deep crop of edge players and DB's. I'll also note that Dallas met with Styles on a Top 30, and Dallas almost always meets with its eventual 1st rounders, as it did with Tyler Booker last year.

TRADE! Washington trades #7 to the Rams for #13 and #61.

I believe that Love will be atop Washington's board of realistic selections, so if he's there, he's the pick. If he's gone, I think Styles could be next up for them. If both of those guys are gone, then it could come down to Delane or possibly Tate if available. This could also be a trade-down spot for Adam Peters, as Washington is currently without 2nd and 4th Round picks. I will note that Washington has not met with a single edge rusher on a Top 30, but has met with some of the top WR's, Styles, and Delane. With a lot of work in free agency on the defense, and with almost nothing of note behind Terry McLaurin (who is in a contract year), let's get them the polished Tate to give Jayden Daniels another weapon.

EDIT: Note that a nearly even swap on the trade value chart is the Rams coming up to this spot for #13 and #61, which would give Washington a 2nd Round pick that it doesn't currently have. Could the Rams be motivated enough to jump in front of the Saints and Chiefs (if neither trades up) for either Tate or Tyson? It does make sense for both sides. Yeah, you know what, what the hell. The Rams are hellbent on winning the Super Bowl. I believe that Tyson is atop their wish list over Tate, as his upside is just so tantalizing. When you watch his tape, he just moves differently for a big receiver.

I get the sense that the Saints will pick either Tate or Tyson if available. They really need to find another weapon for impressive young QB Tyler Shough, and yes, he's still young even if he's not 22 or 23. With Tyson gone, the team can go for a Buckeye combo platter at WR if they add Tate to Chris Olave.

This pick is a really tough call because the Chiefs have a slew of needs. You can argue for edge, OL, CB, WR, TE, or even safety here. This all said, I think it would come down to Bain, Delane, or Fano. We know about the Andy Reid-Kyle Whittingham friendship, so maybe Fano has a shot. The CB need is huge, but many around the team have noted that Spanuolu has developed later round CB's before with great success. I don't see a WR here, particularly if the top 2 guys are off the board. I think it's too rich for Sadiq and I just don't think they'd take Downs over Bain, especially since KC routinely eschews character concerns. So Bain it is, whose O/U is 8.5 with strong juice to the over.

Downs is still there, and even though I think the majority of teams will have Delane rated higher as a DB, I don't believe that the Giants will. I also don't see them going WR here, especially if both Tate and Tyson are gone. I could see an OL such as Ioane, Proctor, or Freeling here. That said, I think Harbaugh wants at least one defender with the first 2 picks, so Downs it is.

New coach Jeff Hafley is an old DB's coach, and of course was the DC of the Packers last season. Since the new regime is likely (but not guaranteed, since we don't have a documented history of Jon-Eric Sullivan making picks) to emphasize RAS, and since Delane has Downs beaten to clearly in that area, and since a potential CB1 holds more value than a safety anyway, yes, let's give the Dolphins Delane here, even if Downs is still available.

TRADE! (See #6 for details.)
While Monroe Freeling is more of a LT prospect, there's talk that the Browns may actually prefer both Mauigoa and Fano. Since Fano is still there, and as he is well ahead of Freeling in consensus rankings, I'll opt for him.

I could see the Rams trying to move up for Tate or Tyson, I could see them standing pat and taking Lemon here (if available), or I could see them trading back and targeting Cooper or Concepcion. Lemon to the Rams at 13 is perhaps the chalkiest pick among mock drafters out of the Top 10, and if they do happen to trade up with Washington, the good news is that this is probably the pick that Washington would make, too.

EDIT: Yeah, I made the trade at 7, so this becomes Lemon to Washington in this spot. Clean fit.

The local beat guys seem to think that OL is the favorite for this pick, and I think Ioane will be the pick if available. Perhaps Proctor will tempt them, as a tackle who is from Alabama, and due to the longstanding Ravens-Alabama connection, I'd expect Proctor to take priority for them over Freeling if both are still available.

Though more pass rush juice is needed, I could see Sadiq being tempting, and with an O/U of 15.5 with nearly even juice to both sides, this feels appropriate.

I had McCoy here before, and he would make sense if the team is confident in his long-term health. But there's been late reporting that his knee may be a chronic type of thing, similar to what dropped Will Johnson to the 2nd Round last year. So despite his running a 4.40 at his workout, it may drop him some. Given that there's so little in the WR room behind Garrett Wilson and Adonai Mitchell (who has never proven he can sustain production over a full season), perhaps Cooper will be a serious consideration.