New Mock, Version 5.0

This is going to be Mendoza, without question, even though Kirk Cousins is likely to start for at least the first few games.

In my very first mock, I had Bailey here, with the logic that this regime may need to show results this year and might not have the luxury of waiting on Reese to develop. Then Jets beat writers seemed to think that Reese would be the guy, and betting markets followed, as Reese had been a solid -250 or so for most of the last month. Well, this week, all three of Peter Schrager, Daniel Jeremiah, and Albert Breer have either reported or stated that they think Bailey will be the pick. The markets have finally reacted, with Reese still the favorite but by a lesser margin. I'm going to go back to my original logic now.

If Reese is there, perhaps Mr. Bitter's point that uber-athletic tweeners are destined to land with the Cardinals will come true after all. Yes, Mauigoa or Fano could be logical if the team decides that it must address its OL, which has no long-term building blocks apart from LT Paris Johnson. Maybe another team wants to trade up for Reese and Arizona finds value in trading down. We've seen Monti Ossenfort do it before. But I'll guess that the team stands pat if Reese is there. Another reason that Arizona might go with Reese or Bailey is that the team has had both in on Top 30's, but none of the presumed top tackles that might go in the top half of the round. Max Iheanaschor was in on a Top 30, but it's possible he could be there at #34.

If the Titans are all-in on improving Cam Ward's chances of having a functional offense in his second year, then perhaps Love could get the call. Part of me -- a lot of me -- just can't get over the idea that a RB could go this high, not to a rebuilding team. How many times do we have to see that it doesn't work out for the team, in terms of resulting in wins? As such, if Bailey is available, and with new coach Robert Saleh a defensive guy, I think he would be the guy. However, if Reese and Bailey happen to go at 2 and 3 in some order, as has happened here, then it likely comes down to Love or Styles, and my guess would be that Love is the pick in that scenario, even though Styles could be a Fred Warner of sorts in Saleh's defense.

Harbaugh has stated that stopping the run is absolutely critical for the Giants. Beat writers have connected the team to Styles and Downs. For me, not only does Styles impact stopping the run more, but he's less likely to fall in the draft than Downs is, since Downs is not an imposing athlete. Styles most certainly is. Maybe Love is a consideration here if available, and Mauigoa makes sense too, given the Harbaugh DNA of wanting brawn up front. But I think that Styles might be their guy.

Along with Arizona at #3, the Browns are another team to watch out for in a trade down. Having said that, the smart money is on this being a choice between Tate and Monroe Freeling, since the other top OL's in this draft are not pure LT's, which is what the Browns are looking for if they go OL. I will give the edge to Tate, even if he doesn't profile as a draft's typical WR1 due to a 4.50+ 40 time and less than imposing size. Still, it's tough to overlook how successful Ohio St. WR's have been in the NFL recently.

I believe that Love will be atop Washington's board of realistic selections, so if he's there, he's the pick. If he's gone, I think Styles could be next up for them. If both of those guys are gone (which is the case here), then it could come down to the CB1 (Delane or McCoy), Bain, or possibly Tate if available. This could also be a trade-down spot for Adam Peters, as Washington is currently without 2nd and 4th Round picks. As I've found from experience, predicting trades can screw up the rest of your mock because if it doesn't happen, now the rest of the round might be screwed up. You're better off just projecting what you think each team will do if they pick. As such, I will note that Washington has not met with a single edge rusher on a Top 30, but has met with some of the top WR's, Styles, and Delane. Delane would seem to hold more value than any of the WR's left, so I'm going to opt for him. It's also not out of the question that if Washington does trade down, that the team coming up into this spot could be looking at Delane as well.

I had Delane here in my last mock and Bain going with the next pick, but I've been swayed by Nick Underhill, the outstanding beat reporter for the team who is very reliable with his information. While I originally thought that Mickey Loomis' history of preferring lengthy edge players would rule out Bain, Underhill specifically said that would not be the case and that he is under consideration for the pick. This gives me the sense that they are quite high on him, if they are willing to eschew their usual preference. And while Delane or McCoy (whichever one is available, if not both) certainly make sense as well, Underhill's little tidbit of info has done enough to change my pick.

Schrager and Jeremiah had a fun exercise where they went through the 1st Round and mocked picks for each team, with Schrager taking the odd numbers and Jeremiah taking the even numbers. Well, to say that KC fans were displeased with Schrager's pick of Fano here is an understatement, as the team would appear to have serious needs at CB, edge rusher, WR, TE, and possibly safety as well. But when I think about the possibility of Fano here, it's not as farfetched as I first thought it was. For one thing, Steve Spagnuolu seems to be able to handle his side of the ball pretty well, even if some reinforcements are needed. For another, this offense in particular has gotten ordinary, and the OL wasn't the same last season after losing Joe Thuney. Kingsley Suamataia was an average LG, and Jawaan Taylor was a poor RT. Taylor has since departed, but Jaylon Moore, who was paid last offseason on a 2-year deal and who is the expected replacement for Taylor, was a below-average swing tackle last season. Fano's versatility could be welcomed, as he might be a better RT than Moore or a better guard than Suamataia. Finally, Fano just played for Kyle Whittingham at Utah (Whittingham is now the Michigan head coach, of course), and Whittingham and Andy Reid are close friends who have a relationship that goes back 4 decades. I think this was pointed out by Schrager, and I dismissed it at the time. I like the dot-connecting.

In coming to a conclusion on this pick, I will first rule out Downs, even though he is the most commonly mocked player to the Bengals. I don't believe he fits the typical Duke Tobin RAS requirement for early selections. McCoy would check the RAS box, but perhaps quietly, Dax Hill and DJ Turner played well last season for the club. Bain, even if available, would not check the RAS box, and I'm not sure that any other edge player is worth picking in this spot. Styles certainly fits the bill, but I expect him to be long gone by this time. So I think we could be looking at an attempt to throw Joe Burrow a bone, especially since I think this is a make-or-break year for him in terms of the thought of forcing his way out of town if the 2026 season goes haywire. So who fits the RAS criteria as an offensive piece? I think we can rule out WR and RB, so that leaves OL and TE. Freeling would be another Georgia OT, on the heels of Amarius Mims being Cincy's 1st rounder two years ago, and Mauigoa is also available in this mock. However, the team just extended LT Orlando Brown Jr., so I'm not sure that a "future thinking" pick like Freeling makes sense, and what's more, the team's OL was a surprise bright spot last season. (Many of the sacks that Burrow takes are because he just holds the ball too long quite often.) As such, my mind goes to Sadiq, the freakishly-athletic TE. While the team obviously has its top two targets locked in with Chase and Higgins, a third receiver has not really emerged (sorry, Iosivas), and neither has a TE (sorry, Drew Sample and Mike Gesicki). Sadiq might actually be a dangerous #3 target.

New coach Jeff Hafley is a former DB's coach, and of course was the DC of the Packers last season before getting this new gig. If McCoy really is in contention with Delane as the CB1, this pick makes all sorts of sense, especially since this new regime is likely to adopt a Packers-like approach with an emphasis on RAS with early picks.

The O/U on Downs is 9.5, and the juice has moved heavily to the over, at -330. As I've said repeatedly, safeties usually fall further in the draft than the public expects, and Downs happens to be undersized and not a freak athlete. If available, he makes total sense for a Dallas team that needs all the talent it can find in the secondary. My guess would be that Bland goes back to playing on the boundary, making Shavon Revel a depth piece, and Downs essentially functions as the nickel or third safety. It's also nice that Downs was in on a Top 30, because Dallas usually meets in person with its eventual 1st Round pick, as it did last year with Tyler Booker.

WR should be the heavy favorite for this pick, and although I think it could be a choice between Lemon and Tyson, Josh Norris has thrown a mock curveball by placing Concepcion here. I have to admit that Concepcion would be a lot of fun in a Sean McVay offense, as a potential home run-hitting slot guy with breakaway speed and as a guy that you can scheme touches for, put in motion a ton, etc. I honestly wonder if the Rams could try to move down a few spots and still try to get Concepcion; maybe a team wants to come up for one of the OL's still left, as only Fano has been picked so far in this mock. In any case, for now I'll stick with the high-floor Lemon, as the Rams are all-in for 2026 and Lemon may make the most immediate impact.

Though many in the industry are placing Ioane here -- and that could certainly happen, as it was my initial choice as well -- I'm swayed by the fact that new OC Declan Doyle's scheme is more zone-based as opposed to power-based. And while it's true that Derrick Henry is obviously a power back, he's not going to be around forever. With both Freeling and Mauigoa on the board, I'm swayed by the fact that not only is Freeling more agile and lengthier, but LT Ronnie Stanley is in the final year of his deal AND has been injury-prone. This pick would allow the Ravens to deploy Freeling as a guard as a rookie, easing him in.

LG Ben Bredeson was a horrific run-blocker last season. Schrager mocked Freeling here and Tampa Bay fans didn't like that (their OT's seem set), but Mauigoa (who could be moved to a guard spot) or Ioane would make sense to me. Other possibilities could include CJ Allen (Lavonte David retired), Sadiq if available (although Cade Otton was re-signed), an edge rusher, or perhaps one of Delane or McCoy if one of them fell. I'll settle on Mauigoa, and although he's still the solid favorite to go as the OL1 for now, it was reported on April 8 that he is going for a medical re-check for a potential back/disc issue, although he played through it last year. Maybe, just maybe this drops him down the board a bit.

There's very little depth behind Garrett Wilson and Adonai Mitchell, and though some teams may have questions about Tyson due to his 2025 hamstring injury (he still hasn't worked out for teams, although he's expected to on April 17, which could be huge for his draft stock) as well as questions about football toughness, the fact is that, unlike Tate, Lemon, and Concepcion, he profiles as a potentially dominant X on the boundary.