USC

The odds went from -5000 to -20000 with 6 days to go, for anyone who is wondering.

LSU

I'm now changing this to Maye because certain little tidbits of info are swaying me. First, there was that report that Daniels' initial meeting with team brass could've gone better. OK, perhaps not that big of a deal. However, Washington decided to have all 4 of Daniels, Maye, McCarthy, and Penix in for their official 30 visits at the same time, a most peculiar decision indeed. Well, Daniels' agent, Ron Butler, was none too pleased at this on social media. So now we have 2 possible friction points, and if Daniels is the guy, would the agent really be reacting like this? And this leads me to my next point, which is that the team traded Sam Howell away earlier, as we're all aware of. Maybe, just maybe, Maye has been the most likely pick all along, and the reason the club traded him was because the two North Carolina QB's are close friends, so perhaps the team didn't want that dynamic in the locker room? I could be overthinking this, and maybe it's actually the case that signing Mariota to be the backup suggests that they are embracing a dual-threat type of QB offense, which could mean that it's going to be Daniels. But Maye also has good mobility, if not the wheels of Daniels. The good news is that GM Adam Peters said today that they are getting close to making a decision. So we should know soon enough, and we should be able to mock this pick correctly. There's really no reason for Washington to hide what it wants to do.

Update: after Maye had moved to Even money on the afternoon of April 18, with Daniels still at -200, on the morning of April 19 it was at Maye -130 and Daniels at -125. This could be like how the media/oddsmakers thought that the 49ers were going to pick Mac Jones over Trey Lance for the longest time, or even last year when you think about how the odds for CJ Stroud dropped for even the #2 overall pick, with Will Levis being favored until the final hours. Now on April 20 Daniels is back as the slight -130 favorite, but they are neck-and-neck. Still, I think it's going to be Maye, folks! Scott Smith and Nick Guarisco have mocked Maye here, for what that's worth, as well.

Another update: Daniels is back to -400 in the early morning hours of Wednesday. There's still been nothing from Washington team sources, but all of the national reporters are now saying that Daniels will be the guy and that other teams expect this as well. Guarisco also has changed his mock to Daniels again.

North Carolina

I continue to believe that the Pats' offseason moves point to them taking a QB with this selection, and not trading down. And if Daniels is available, reportedly their #1 choice, then this would be an easy call. If he's not, then this comes down to Maye or McCarthy. I'll give the edge to Maye, who has now moved to a pretty solid -225 favorite for the #3 selection.

Michigan

TRADE! Arizona trades #4 to Minnesota for #11, #23, and a 2025 1st Round pick.

You can see my notes below for the #5 pick, but based on intel from Mike Jurecki, I am no longer projecting what would amount to a 3-way trade involving Minnesota and the Chargers here. Instead, Arizona simply takes the haul from the Vikes, who come up to get what they hope will be their next franchise QB. Of course, it's been my belief that Arizona would be trading out of this pick for weeks, and Jason LaCanfora just posted an article in which he said this: "Of the half-dozen decision-makers I spoke with in recent days, all believe the Arizona Cardinals are trading out of the fourth spot." In addition, Evan Silva posted his latest mock and while he doesn't project any trades, he says that he thinks Arizona prefers to move out of the pick.

Ohio State

Well folks, I'm changing my idea that Arizona would trade into this spot, which would have resulted in the Chargers coming away with 2 picks before their scheduled 2nd Round pick at #37. Why? Well, I spoke on Twitter today (April 16) with none other than Jurecki, and after noting that Arizona loves each of the top 3 WR's, he made a couple of things clear. One, that Arizona is absolutely open to trading #4 for #11, #23, and possibly future draft capital. That was no surprise to me. But two, he said that the Chargers would "rush to the podium" and pick MHJ if he's there at 5, eschewing a trade down. So even though I think Hortiz and Harbaugh are open to trading down, and even though the point has been made about Harbaugh loving to play bullyball with a strong OL, and even though some have noted that Harbaugh never got a 5-star WR recruit in college, it is true that Harbaugh did try to recruit MHJ to Michigan. He also saw him up close, with games against Ohio State as the Michigan coach, and saw how well he played despite the fact that the Michigan defense was trying to take him out of the game. There's also the fact that Harbaugh played for two seasons with Marvin Harrison Sr. on the Colts.

Bottom line? When Jurecki says something like this, I have to act accordingly. Of course, if it's true that Arizona just can't pass on MHJ, then I'm guessing the Chargers end up doing the trade with Minnesota. But I maintain that Minnesota was given a promise by somebody in the top 4, and it just makes too much sense that the team was Arizona.

LSU

This will likely be Nabers or Odunze, and I'm still thinking that Nabers has the edge. It's very much worth noting that the Giants have a slew of smaller WR's, and although Nabers isn't small per se, Odunze is much bigger and a typical X. If the Giants have them rated similarly, perhaps Odunze would get the call. Still, I just think Nabers' explosiveness will win out.

Notre Dame

This is becoming the chalk pick in the mocks, but it just makes too much sense. The Titans have done a good job to get Will Levis some legit WR talent this offseason, but there is literally not a single LT on the roster. If Alt were to go before this pick, my guess is that the Titans would try to move down, recoup some draft capital, and perhaps end up in the range of Fashanu.

Washington

TRADE! Atlanta trades #8 to Arizona for #11 and #71.

We know the Cardinals have ample draft capital to move back up the board, with 2 picks scheduled later in this round, one early in the 2nd Round, and three in the 3rd Round. Trading 11 and 71 is a bit of an overpay on the trade value chart, but since it's possible that other teams may offer a pick higher than 71, Arizona, with the three 3rd's, feels compelled to cough up its middle of the three 3rd rounders to secure their man. And it's true that although Atlanta may get offers for a pick better than 71, that likely would require them to move much further down the board, so that's the trade-off. I absolutely think that Atlanta is in a position to trade down, because it's looking to me like the WR3 of the draft will be in play here, and if Atlanta has Latu as its highest-rated edge guy, then they can almost certainly get him at 11. And if Latu is somehow not available, it means that Turner almost certainly will be. Atlanta is in a position where they can leverage interest in the WR3 of the draft here, and I fully expect them to.

Texas

I am going to do something different for the Bears pick, and continue to drop Dallas Turner, after careful consideration. Regarding Turner, first off, I don't think Atlanta is dead-set on taking him, hence the trade down. I think Odunze would be the pick if available, and I am not ruling out the Bears trying to outbid a team to move up for him. But if that doesn't happen, there's considerable late noise that Murphy has a ton of momentum and that the Bears are interested in him. This makes me recall last year, when there was similar late buzz on Wright, and the Bears made him the pick. In fact, Murphy has climbed to the second choice for the #9 pick in betting markets, only behind Odunze. And I don't think Odunze is going to be there, as I really believe that Atlanta is going to trade down.

Update: Murphy has moved to the favorite to be the #9 pick, basically going from longshot to the favorite within 24 hours. The train may have left the station, folks.

Georgia

None of the top 3 wideouts are available, and with the signing of Mike Williams, this feels like a good spot to add a different type of offensive weapon in Bowers. OL could absolutely still be a consideration in spite of the additions of LT Tyron Smith and RT Morgan Moses, and there are also rumblings that the Jets could look at a trade down since they don't have a 2nd Round pick. Still, I am not sure that the Jets can make an "insurance" pick, which is what an OL would be, with Joe Douglas possibly on the hot seat this year. Thus, I think they are looking for a jolt with an offensive skill player. This is probably the earliest that Bowers can go, with an O/U of 12.5, but there's heavy juice to the Under at -210 as of the morning of April 19. Also worth noting is that Bowers was a team captain at Georgia, and most of Joe Douglas' 1st Round picks have been team captains in college.

Update: the O/U on Bowers has dropped to 11.5, without heavy juice to either side.

UCLA

TRADE! (See #8 for details.)

After the 3-pick drop down the board, any edge player is still there for Atlanta. Though most of the mock community has penciled Turner in at #8, his O/U of 9.5 (with no juice to either side) suggests that he could actually fall out of the top 10, even though he's still listed as -225 to be a top 10 pick. (I find this to be odd, since the Jets would seem to be extremely unlikely to pick him at 10.) Anyway, he does fit the profile for Terry Fontenot, as a younger prospect with a great RAS. Having said that, in Scott Smith's updated mock, he has Atlanta picking Latu and notes the coaching staff connection, as DC Jimmy Lake was the Washington Huskies head coach while Latu was there. Of course, he was forced to medically retire while there, but resumed his career at UCLA and didn't appear to have issues in Los Angeles. There is no doubt in my mind that Latu is a better player today than Turner is, and could Atlanta be turning to a win-now mentality with Cousins in tow? Anyway, just something to think about, and I may follow Smith's lead in the coming days.

Update: I am now following Smith's lead, less than 24 hours later. I think Atlanta is ready to win, wants to win, and that Latu is better equipped to help them do that. The -225 odds for Turner to be a top 10 pick have actually tumbled to Even money, all within one day. I think a little fall down the board is entirely possible for him if he's not the first edge player chosen.

Oregon State

TRADE! Denver trades #12 to Philadelphia for #22 and #50.

Denver has no 2nd Round pick and is a prime trade-down team. If they have their eyes on Bo Nix, as I believe they do, there's no reason to pick him here at 12. I had Green Bay trading up to this spot for Fautanu before, but now I'm going to switch it up to the Eagles, based on some intel I've seen that's floating out there that Philly really wants to move up. If it is Philly that moves up here, I just can't bring myself to think they'd pick a CB based on the history, so perhaps they would love to have Fuaga or Fautanu as an immediate starter at guard, while possibly taking over for RT Lane Johnson, who is now 34, before the end of his rookie deal. I'll give Fuaga the edge because he may be a cleaner fit at RT eventually, plus his power at a guard spot is something that I'm guessing Philly would like. Guarisco, while he didn't project this trade up, does have Fuaga as Philly's first target should they move up, followed by Fautanu.

Washington

With this pick, it feels like the Raiders could be in position to go OL or CB, unless Penix were the guy, as Daniel Jeremiah has in his latest mock. The OL fits would seem to be Fuaga or Latham to play RT, or Arnold/Mitchell as a possible CB1. I was giving the slight edge to Fuaga last night (April 16). But now Charlie has reported that, indeed, the Raiders are very much interested in taking Penix, and although he noted that they also have legit OL/CB interest, and that they may consider drafting OL/CB first and then attempting to move back up for Penix with their second pick, he is leaning towards them just making the pick here at 13 and not risking losing him. (In particular, Seattle at 16 and the Rams at 19 could be threats.) So now you have not only Jeremiah mocking this, but now it's Charlie's lean too. This is very notable to me for two reasons. One, Jeremiah was often on the pulse of what the Chargers were going to do in the draft (he's their radio analyst, after all), and Tom Telesco is now the GM of the Raiders, of course. And two, Charlie has been very plugged-in to the inner workings of the Raiders in the recent past. I believe he called the Alex Leatherwood pick for them, and he also had them wanting Paris Johnson last year, which we found out was true after the fact, even though the Cardinals leapfrogged them to come back up to take him. Given all of this info, I'm going back to Penix in this spot.

Update: Charlie now thinks that the Raiders will pick Latham, and try to trade back into the 1st for Penix. As they have a 2nd Round pick, I view this as quite possible. Ultimately, there are different courses of action that would be logical, but I'm sticking with my theory that if Penix is loved by the Raiders -- and I believe that he is -- they can't mess around and risk Seattle choosing him at 16. The connections there are obvious. This is QB. Sure, getting a RT or a CB would be nice. But your team has no upside in the AFC without a franchise QB. If they think Penix can be one, they simply can't afford to pass on him with Seattle lurking just 3 spots later. Most in the mock community aren't thinking that Seattle would pick Penix and I don't get it, frankly.

Penn State

With Fashanu available, he likely makes the most sense in this spot as a clean LT fit for a team that so desperately needs it. If he were off the board, I think Fautanu would be next up, as a versatile fit in Klint Kubiak's new scheme.

Toledo

Given Chris Ballard's obsession with RAS and given that Mitchell is still the odds-on favorite to go as the first CB off the board, I would say that he has a great chance to be the pick if still available. If Bowers slid past the Jets and were available here, I'm guessing he would be the preferred choice.

Alabama

Seattle, like Denver, is thought to be a prime trade-down candidate because it doesn't have a 2nd Round pick. As this is right in the range of where the top 6 OL will go, if Seattle does trade down, I could see the Ravens as a trade partner because of the connection of former DC Mike Macdonald now employed as the Seattle head coach, and we know the Ravens need OL starters (plural). However, with Turner possibly being the #1 edge player on Seattle's board, it might be tough for them to trade out of this spot. John Schneider has typically taken younger prospects in the 1st Round, so this fits that criteria as well. Fautanu has to be a serious consideration due to the connection to new OC Ryan Grubb, but it was reported on April 22 that some teams have medical concerns on him, so perhaps he could drop just a bit. The other obvious possibility, at least to me, would be Penix if he is available.