Welcome to Mr. Bitter's Profile Page

@WFDevTeam 

The Darnell Washington injury is big. His blocking was crucial to the run game and the passing offense was leaning on him more by the week. But who knows...maybe Freiermuth emerges from exile with a big game.

BAL by a FG feels exactly right, but I worry about Lamar. We keep waiting for the Lamar we all know to show up and it hasn't happened all year. Non-bet for me. 

@iEatCrayons 

JAX O-line is banged up. I dunno...I can see the Colts keeping it close.

@WFDevTeam 

Yeah, there's a reason Vegas stays in business. Luckily, I had no interest in betting HOU/LAC. Post-Xmas funds, tight lines and all the backup QBs have me taking it easy this week.

Only large play is CAR +7, but apparently Tet McMillan woke up with the flu and is now questionable, so that may be a no-go. Some cabbage on CIN -7.5. All logic says CIN scores at will, but I can't shake the feeling Trey McBride gets three TDs and ARI finds the back door. My fantasy league team is in the championship with Burrow, Chase Brown and Chase starting, so I'm going all in on the Bengals. Small play on TEN as home dogs, too. 

Sniffed around PIT -3 (win-and-in), but I think it's priced perfectly and can see CLE relishing the spoiler role. Garrett may go nuclear, while PIT is very banged up and without Metcalf. I don't like that CLE offense without Judkins though.

@iEatCrayons 

Yeah, I'm probably overthinking this. The Jags are in a lather. Think I'm still reeling from the wallet-draining bet I made on SEA/IND, where I assumed Rivers would lay an egg. That loss was more about me underestimating the flat spot for SEA than anything Rivers did though.

It's looking like the Colts could be without Raimann along with Bortolini. This might be the week Rivers gives us the turnover/sack fest I anticipated vs. SEA. Rivers will need to get it out quick, so I expect Josh Downs to have a productive day in the slot. (Garbage time/no Jourdan Lewis)

@iEatCrayons 

Was sniffing around JAX, but the injuries in their secondary have me hesitant. Rivers has been more competent than I anticipated.

CIN feels like a clean play. There's always a chance Brissett/McBride go nuclear and we see a full-on shoot-out including the back door, but ARI's depth chart is just so decimated. The Cardinals may have already checked out.

TEN +3

The Raiders are destined to bat leadoff in the '26 NFL Draft, meaning both the Giants and Titans will win one of their remaining games. NYG will beat LV next week, while TEN will beat KC straight up today.

I know that TEN sucks, but KC is staggered right now. The O-line is in tatters, they have no running game, and the only viable passing targets for Minshew are (bust?) Xavier Worthy and the ghost of Travis Kelce. Key injuries are peppered along the KC defensive depth chart. TEN 20 KC 17

@Billl2021 

The thing is, Sam never shows up in big games.

@Baird 

I'm going heavy on SEA. For me, it's all about fading Rivers. I'm not gonna wait to see how he fares when all logic points toward a disaster right from the jump. Gonna get out ahead of it. If I'm wrong on Rivers, then so be it. But I don't think I will be.

SEA definitely has one eye toward the Rams, so I'd lay off if Riley Leonard was starting. At least he's functional and can do some things with his wheels. Rivers is just a sitting duck vs. that swarming SEA front seven. I'm with Walt - to expect anything but disaster for Rivers is fairy tale land. 

Not too worried about Taylor vs. an elite SEA run D that recently folded Jarran Reed back into the mix. Taylor has faded since Indy's problems at QB began anyway.

For what it's worth, SEA is 10-3 ATS, including 3-1 ATS in games I deemed "flat" spots. MacDonald has them playing consistent ball. That said, I'm on the Rams -1 on TNF. LA has SEA's number.  

@Baird 

I feel confident that SEA will blow out IND. Rivers is starting, which is comically desperate. Coming out of a five-year retirement, he gets to face the best D in the NFL in a potential monsoon and without RT Braden Smith. There may be so many IND turnovers, SEA may cover even if not fully focused. I just have visions of that SEA D running fumbles and INTs into the EZ throughout the game.

Early Games:

PIT +3  CHI's back seven is in shambles. Not a good matchup for PIT's TE-heavy attack. PIT tightens up around Rudolph and wins SU. 

BAL -13.5  Fading the Jets for a while. Lamar's DNP on Wednesday was apparently a maintenance day, so I'm not too worried about him.  

DET -13.5  Kinda worried about no LaPorta and a look ahead to GB on Turkey Day for the Lions, but I can't side with Winston w/no weapons.

NE -7.5  Getting blowout vibes in this one. The Pats want to bury the Bills in the AFC East.

TEN +12.5  Coming off the Rams and with Darnold revenge game vs. MIN on the horizon, I don't like this spot for SEA. TEN D controls the SEA run game while Ward kills clock w/short stuff to TEs and RBs vs. SEA's backup LBs. Titans lose but keep it close.

MIN +6.5  Divisional rivalry and must-win for MIN. I hate siding w/McCarthy, but the banged-up GB defense can be had.

IND +3.5  The Chiefs have to show me more. I'm (probably foolishly) assuming Danny Dimes ironed out those TO issues during Indy's BYE. Feels like a lotta Jonathan Taylor and a 3 point game.

Late games coming. Leaning DAL to beat PHI SU. 

Happy hunting fellas.

@Billl2021 

"I feel it is more they play down to their competition" 

Bingo.

With their inconsistency and injuries quietly piling up on offense, GB is giving me FADE vibes for the next two weeks. ("Easy" game @ NYG followed by vs. MIN in a game where the Vikings could be in must-win mode.)

"Matt Milano will snap out of his funk at some point"

Sure about that? He's 31 and terminally injured.

@Baird 

The "Patriots haven't beaten anybody" angle felt too mainstream for me. They were yacking about it on ESPN. Vrabel probably put it up on the billboard.

But you're right - nine times out of ten the Bucs are the right side. That's why I didn't touch NE even though I could see them winning. I had a hunch Henderson would erupt. (Just a hunch, even in the face of the TB run D.) Thankfully, I put him in my fantasy lineup (Chase Brown-BYE) after he'd been languishing on my bench all season.

ATL +6  Do the Colts bounce back or has Danny Dimes turned back into a pumpkin? Which ATL team will show up? DeForest Buckner is OUT, but will ATL be able to take advantage with Bergeron and possibly Lindstrom OUT? Will Sauce Gardner be up to speed and able to control Drake London? Too many questions to bet this one, but my best guess is ATL covers but loses due to a crucial Penix mistake and/or a Zane Gonzalez missed FG or two, while IND stumbles into their BYE.

CAR -5.5  No, I don't think CAR is suddenly a legit NFC contender, but I'm leaning on an underrated, intangible angle in this matchup: The Panthers are establishing an identity, while the Saints aren't. NO has no plan beyond yanking two backup-quality QBs in and out of the lineup and trotting out the ghosts of Kamara, T. Hill, Jordan, etc., and expecting anything to change, while Canales has established CAR as a competitive, smashmouth team. This counts for something...enough for me to go light on CAR. 

I think Dowdle's success will continue vs. NO. While the Saints have been okay overall vs. the run, they have given up the 5th-most explosive rushes in the NFL. Since becoming the starter, Dowdle is 1st in the NFL in explosive rushes.

CHI -4.5  I'm with Walt here. The NYG run defense - which is basically just Sexy Dexy and tumbleweeds - is dead last in EPA per rush, just as the CHI running game is getting into a full lather behind that revamped O-line. Bears with a methodical, comfortable win.

HOU +1  This pick hinges on the availability of Will Anderson Jr. (QUESTIONABLE), as Anderson/Hunter taking turns pinning their ears back vs. atrocious JAX LT Walker Little would wreck the Jags offense. Must-win for HOU, but I'm not trusting Davis Mills and no running game unless the defense is fully dominant. Anderson likely plays, meaning I'm likely to bet HOU light.  

BUF -9.5  Classic trap game, but a) the Bills are still looking up at the Pats in the standings and b) the Dolphins are an auto-fade. Josh Allen game.

NYJ +2  Jets fan here to tell you how this will go down: Because this is exactly the type of game the Jets win to blow their chance at batting leadoff in the '26 Draft, rookie CB Azareye'h Thomas gets a pick-six in what will otherwise be the ugliest win this season. Vibes are good in Jersey for a few days, then the Jets get slobberknockered by NE next Thursday. Bank it. It's what the Jets do.

BAL -4  Have we forgotten what J.J. McCarthy looked like earlier this season? I haven't.  

ATL -7 NON-BET  I don't trust Tua right now, but I don't trust an injured Penix, either. There might be a QB controversy slowly brewing in ATL and I'm tempted to get ahead of it, but MIA seems to have tapped out and has to be faded until they show some fight.

ATL is a better team at home and Bijan could make an MVP statement vs. MIA's saloon door run D, but ATL's overall inconsistency and Achane on a rug has me fearful of a back and forth game and a backdoor cover. 

CHI +6.5 NON-BET  BAL was my preseason SB pick, and I'm trying my best not to let that cloud my judgement.

A lot of things have to click in order for BAL to get out of their 1-5 hole, even against the 7th-easiest remaining schedule, and while they're getting reinforcements off their BYE, I'm not sure they'll just be able to flip the switch vs. a hot CHI team that may feel disrespected by this point spread. The BAL defense sucks right now without Madubuike, and he's not coming back.

BUF -7 NON-BET  I've gone back n forth here. BUF's struggling D gets a few D-line depth pieces back for this one, but now DaQuan Jones and Taylor Rapp are OUT. CAR should be able to establish the run vs. BUF, but what if Josh Allen comes out hot and the Bills jump out to an early lead? I simply am not betting Dalton over Allen in this situation.

CIN -6.5 LOVE  I don't think CIN's springboard win over PIT saves their season, but it provides more than enough momentum to TCB against the awful, poorly-coached Jets.

For NY, Wilson and Sauce have already been ruled OUT, and now Breece Hall and Mason Taylor are QUESTIONABLE. The Jets simply can't score points right now and must be faded.

SF +2.5 LIKE  This is a must-win for HOU...but so was their loss to SEA. Screw the net points...why should I assume that HOU will break out of their offensive funk when they have zero running game, their O-line is still sh*t, and Nico Collins is likely OUT? Why should I assume a finally-healthy CMC won't dominate? 

CLE +7 NON-BET  Maye>Gabriel means no cabbage, but running game and defense travels, so NE should be on upset alert - especially if CLE can win the TO battle. (Looking at YOU, Stevenson.)

ATL -7 NON-BET  I don't trust Tua right now, but I don't trust an injured Penix, either. There might be a QB controversy slowly brewing in ATL and I'm tempted to get ahead of it, but MIA seems to have tapped out and has to be faded until they show some fight.

ATL is a better team at home and Bijan could make an MVP statement vs. MIA's saloon door run D, but ATL's overall inconsistency and Achane on a rug has me fearful of a back and forth game and a backdoor cover. 

CHI +6.5 NON-BET  BAL was my preseason SB pick, and I'm trying my best not to let that cloud my judgement.

A lot of things have to click in order for BAL to get out of their 1-5 hole, even against the 7th-easiest remaining schedule, and while they're getting reinforcements off their BYE, I'm not sure they'll just be able to flip the switch vs. a hot CHI team that may feel disrespected by this point spread. The BAL defense sucks right now without Madubuike, and he's not coming back.

BUF -7 NON-BET  I've gone back n forth here. BUF's struggling D gets a few D-line depth pieces back for this one, but now DaQuan Jones and Taylor Rapp are OUT. CAR should be able to establish the run vs. BUF, but what if Josh Allen comes out hot and the Bills jump out to an early lead? I simply am not betting Dalton over Allen in this situation.

CIN -6.5 LOVE  I don't think CIN's springboard win over PIT saves their season, but it provides more than enough momentum to TCB against the awful, poorly-coached Jets.

For NY, Wilson and Sauce have already been ruled OUT, and now Breece Hall and Mason Taylor are QUESTIONABLE. The Jets simply can't score points right now and must be faded.

SF +2.5 LIKE  This is a must-win for HOU...but so was their loss to SEA. Screw the net points...why should I assume that HOU will break out of their offensive funk when they have zero running game, their O-line is still sh*t, and Nico Collins is likely OUT? Why should I assume a finally-healthy CMC won't dominate? 

CLE +7 NON-BET  Maye>Gabriel means no cabbage, but running game and defense travels, so NE should be on upset alert - especially if CLE can win the TO battle. (Looking at YOU, Stevenson.)

@Baird 

You've convinced me. That 'Niners defensive depth chart is looking pretty grim. Like the Lions, SF wears their ability to overcome injuries like a badge of honor - a factor I feel sometimes isn't fully baked into the line for SF and DET - but there comes a point where the hits are too much to overcome. If HOU's offense can't get right in this one...

ATL -7 NON-BET  I don't trust Tua right now, but I don't trust an injured Penix, either. There might be a QB controversy slowly brewing in ATL and I'm tempted to get ahead of it, but MIA seems to have tapped out and has to be faded until they show some fight.

ATL is a better team at home and Bijan could make an MVP statement vs. MIA's saloon door run D, but ATL's overall inconsistency and Achane on a rug has me fearful of a back and forth game and a backdoor cover. 

CHI +6.5 NON-BET  BAL was my preseason SB pick, and I'm trying my best not to let that cloud my judgement.

A lot of things have to click in order for BAL to get out of their 1-5 hole, even against the 7th-easiest remaining schedule, and while they're getting reinforcements off their BYE, I'm not sure they'll just be able to flip the switch vs. a hot CHI team that may feel disrespected by this point spread. The BAL defense sucks right now without Madubuike, and he's not coming back.

BUF -7 NON-BET  I've gone back n forth here. BUF's struggling D gets a few D-line depth pieces back for this one, but now DaQuan Jones and Taylor Rapp are OUT. CAR should be able to establish the run vs. BUF, but what if Josh Allen comes out hot and the Bills jump out to an early lead? I simply am not betting Dalton over Allen in this situation.

CIN -6.5 LOVE  I don't think CIN's springboard win over PIT saves their season, but it provides more than enough momentum to TCB against the awful, poorly-coached Jets.

For NY, Wilson and Sauce have already been ruled OUT, and now Breece Hall and Mason Taylor are QUESTIONABLE. The Jets simply can't score points right now and must be faded.

SF +2.5 LIKE  This is a must-win for HOU...but so was their loss to SEA. Screw the net points...why should I assume that HOU will break out of their offensive funk when they have zero running game, their O-line is still sh*t, and Nico Collins is likely OUT? Why should I assume a finally-healthy CMC won't dominate? 

CLE +7 NON-BET  Maye>Gabriel means no cabbage, but running game and defense travels, so NE should be on upset alert - especially if CLE can win the TO battle. (Looking at YOU, Stevenson.)

@Billl2021 

Your take was logical, but Dan Campbell's ability to overcome a rash of injuries is something that may need to be baked into handicapping the Lions going forward. Every coach uses the "next man up" cliche, but they take it seriously in Detroit. They did it last season, and now they're doing it with the secondary this season. It's nuts.

@Baird 

The CIN victory over PIT definitely felt like a springboard game. Maybe even kept Hendrickson in Cincy. I don't anticipate Flacco keeping it up and saving CIN's season, but there's no reason why they shouldn't TCB vs. my Jets. The Jets are a hot mess, and Tyrod Taylor might be playing hurt if he starts.

I know it's early, but Aaron Glenn already has a good coordinator/bad head coach vibe.

It's not hard to believe that CAR is vastly improved vs. the run. Derrick Brown.

The Jets are an auto-fade for me until Tyrod Taylor takes over under center. Rookie TE Mason Taylor is currently Fields' top receiving option. The Jets simply can't score points.

I agree that CAR isn't suddenly a playoff contender, but they should win this game. You're letting your resistance to the idea that CAR is improved cloud your judgement.

CAR returns Hubbard, Coker , J. Sanders, Moton, Corbett and Wharton this week. They are currently in a lather running the ball and stopping the run. That travels. CAR 27 NYJ 13

@Baird 

If the Ravens were playing a team with a functional passing game, I wouldn't touch them given all the injuries in the secondary. But HOU hasn't been able to throw the ball for a while.

I still believe the Ravens are an elite team that will round into form as they get healthier, so I wanna get out ahead of it. BAL could really get into a lather Weeks 8 through 14 (lotta cupcakes) and I'm gonna bet a small wager that tomorrow's game will be an early springboard into that. Kinda my contrarian pick of the week. 

"...the Rams may not be totally focused against the 49ers, given how many backups San Francisco will be utilizing"

McVay-coached team...divisional rivalry for first place...c'mon, Walt.

"...the Rams may not be totally focused against the 49ers, given how many backups San Francisco will be utilizing"

McVay-coached team...divisional rivalry for first place...c'mon, Walt.

@Baird 

I appreciate the fine tooth comb treatment for CLE/MIN. Non-bet for me, as I don't trust Wentz, yet wonder how long the CLE defense will be happy with doing the heavy lifting while the offense stagnates around a revolving door of bad QBs. (As a pretty dedicated draftnik, I'm here to tell you Gabriel ain't it.) We've seen even the best of defenses eventually tap out in such situations.

I wouldn't count on the Cam Robinson angle. Washed journeyman who should only be shoring up practice squads.

LOVE

DET -10  To control Myles Garrett, Sewell and Decker is about the best OT duo you could ask for, and even the best of defenses eventually tap out when there's no support from the offense. CLE's win vs. GB will be a blip on the radar of another lost season that will result in the (unfair) firing of Stefanski.

For DET, Morton's offense is in a lather, while the defense should be able to contain Judkins. I just don't see an "on switch" for the CLE attack in this spot. Aidan Hutchinson vs. a CLE 3rd-string RT called "KT Leveston" and LT Cornelius Lucas reeks of a game-wrecking situation. I anticipate double-digit DET wins vs. CLE and Week 5 vs. CIN.

t;LIKEt;

MIN -2.5  Vibes are good in MIN. Prepare for louder "should Wentz remain the starter" chatter following this one. This is what Kevin O'Connell does, and the Steelers have been far more lucky than good this season.

I'm concerned that D.K. Metcalf may be able to light up MIN's suspect secondary, but given that Aaron Rodgers was 30th in QBR and 33rd in YPA vs. the blitz in '24, I doubt the Flores defense will allow the immobile Rodgers the time to locate Metcalf.

@Billl2021 

To be fair, BAL was without an elite DT (Madubuike) and Van Noy. Replay the game with those two healthy and I doubt DET is ripping off all those 10 yard + runs. But yeah, DET came to play and probably would have won regardless, especially now that Derrick Henry is Mr. Butterfingers.

WEEK 3 Early Games ATS: 

ATL, MIN, GB, HOU, IND, LAR, LV, TB, NE

Even the best of defenses eventually tap out when they're getting no support from their offense. GB 27, CLE 14

GLTA

@Karensman 

Bone. Not white...bone.

ARI -6.5  I gave Bryce Young one week, and Walt is right - Bryce Young sucks. He has limitations that can't be overcome at the NFL level, and - like last season - I'm betting his poor performance will snowball. I expect the ARI D to get some TOs and Conner/Benson to take turns gashing the CAR D. 

I kinda like the Cardinals this year. Yeah, they're probably looking at a 2-0 start vs. two of the worst teams in the league, but ARI's roster is talented and they could easily be 6-1 going into their BYE. 

@Baird 

Yeah, Carter's DROY chances look promising. The Dart era could begin as soon as this Sunday for the Giants, which may increase the likelihood that Thibodeaux gets traded, meaning even more snaps/opportunity for Carter.

I still think Malaki Starks is in a great position to rack up some big plays and narrow the lead, and I've got my eye on CIN LB Demetrius Knight Jr., who was flying around everywhere and super-productive Week One. Could be a Shaquille Leonard-type situation where Knight just puts up so many numbers that he forces the voters' hands.

@WFDevTeam 

DFS Contest?

@Baird

Last thing: With the SF WR corps battered and disorganized, my biggest fear is that the Niners will just kill SEA with a steady diet of George Kittle.

I'm interested to see if the Seahawks employ Nick Emmanwori (my darkhorse to join Malaki Starks, Abdul Carter and draft crush Jahdae Barron in the DROY race) as something resembling a Kittle/McBride-eraser. Emmanwori's skill set is perfect for the job.

@Baird

Jordan Elliott. Kalia Davis. Dee Winters. Upton Stout. Ji'Ayir Brown. Jason Pinnock. These are current STARTERS on the SF defensive depth chart.

Also: If the game is close, the 49ers are at a disadvantage with their historically bad ST units. Ultra-inconsistent Jake Moody is somehow still the kicker, with washed Thomas Morstead at punter.

Be careful not to overuse the "hipster pick" thing.

I'm also not sold on Bryce Young and predict the Panthers will finish 3rd in the NFC South, but CAR seems to have some direction under Canales, so the idea of the Panthers winning a weak division isn't outlandish if I'm wrong about Young.

CAR has improved their offensive and defensive lines and bolstered the rushing attack over the last two seasons - which is usually a good formula for establishing long-term success. Teams could run at will vs. CAR last season, but the return of Derrick Brown along with FA and draft additions will likely change that. The Panthers might be a tough out.

A "hipster pick" would be the Dolphins to win 11 games or something.

@Baird 

Waiting for official injury reports, weather, etc, then will set you chumps straight.

Until then, I couldn't agree with you more on SF/SEA.

The Niners are being valued as if they're the same team from two years ago. They're not.

Cheap Purdy and expensive Purdy are two different beasts, both from individual pressure and team-building standpoints.

The WR corps and O-line are problematic.

Christian McCaffrey and Trent Williams might be washed.

Other than Bosa and Warner, the defense is nothing but question marks and unproven youngsters. (Right now, SEA has the better defense. As do LAR and ARI.)

There's profit in fading SF until folks catch up. 

@42yardline 

Their best decision since ditching those mid-2000s, CFL-looking uniforms.

@Sdoc135 

I was thinking the same thing - especially with the possibility that A.J. Brown is rusty off that hamstring injury - but now it appears that Trevon Diggs will be OUT for DAL. That leaves Kaiir Elam as DAL's top outside CB. Not good. Still, the Cowboys have backdoor potential against a PHI defense that lost a lot of veteran leaders and is incorporating new, young parts. Probably a non-bet for me.

The Vikings are hard to read. Still, I think this list overvalues them. 

O'Connell has a knack for extracting lemonade from lemons at QB, but those were veterans. McCarthy is green and didn't throw too many passes at Michigan. We'll see.

The MIN interior O-line improvements look good on paper, but the Vikes are relying on a rookie and two injury-plagued guys the Colts and other suitors had no interest in overpaying. The situation doesn't feel as dependable as the Thuney/Dalman upgrades to the CHI interior O-line.

I worry about the MIN run defense. After trading Harrison Phillips, there's no real NT to keep blockers off of Cashman and Pace.

The MIN secondary is worrisome. Jeff Okudah is a starter. Not good. And Harrison Smith could become a liability at any second.

@Osmodiar 

I think it depends on what the CLE front office/coaching staff looks like by draft day, and whether the Browns address the offensive supporting cast by then. As you mentioned in an earlier comment, the Browns interior O-line needs rebuilding. (I would add that LT is still a problem, as Dawand Jones should be at RT.)

If the Mannings are convinced that a new CLE brain trust has a plan, then why not the Browns for Arch? If Arch is the real deal, then he might embrace the idea of carving out his own legacy in CLE.

@cb8518846 

Out of curiosity, why do you think Tampa will be in play for Arch in '27? Jason Licht has given every indication that the Bucs will extend Mayfield. TB is a stable organization with solid foundational pieces and an explosive offense with a good, young O-line and should still be stacked with playmakers if the post-Godwin/Evans era comes sooner than expected. I'd say it's more likely that the '27 draft will have teams like MIA, CLE, TEN, SF, NO and maybe even DAL batting at the top of the order.

Your ARI call is interesting. They could easily move on from Kyler if he continues to under-perform and get hurt. Still, the Cards have a talented young roster. I can't see them bottoming out so quickly. 

@Charlie Campbell 

Given the fact that Manning QBs have historically stayed until their Sr. years and Arch's relative inexperience, I can understand omitting Arch from this mock draft. I also believe that Sellers could emerge as the top prize (with Fernando Mendoza a darkhorse), as guys like Nussmeier (undersized/iffy decision-maker) and Klubnik (questionable arm) might be closer to Day 2 than top-of-the-draft prospects. 

I personally think TEN remains the least-talented team in the NFL (they're STILL talking up Treylon Burks lol) and will again bat leadoff in the '26 Draft. (Cam Ward will be a bust, but TEN won't pull the plug after just one season.) If I'm right, CLE has to be the front-runner to move up to 1.01, regardless of Berry's history. Also of note: Chances are good that Berry will be unemployed by the time the '26 Draft rolls around. Any new regime's top priority will be ending the decades-long shit show at QB.

@The Champ

You know what...scratch that about Henderson. Jahmyr Gibbs is a tandem RB and he popped off at 1.12. There are always surprise 1st RD picks and explosive offensive weapons are at a premium. I like Henderson better than Hampton, and Feldman's article suggests that a lot of NFL decision-makers feel the same. I'm finding a spot for Henderson in the 1st RD.

@The Champ 

For what it's worth, the Pewter Report - where Charlie Campbell used to work - like Donovan Ezeiruaka at 1.19 and Demetrius Knight or Jeffrey Bassa in RD 3 or 4 for the Bucs. They've been on Ezeiruaka all along and never seriously considered Jihaad Campbell there. They have historically been pretty sharp with TB's picks.

The UNDER on Egbuka's 29.0 O/U (-275) and OVER on the 2.5 total WRs drafted in the 1sr RD (-280) are getting juicier. I think Egbuka is a pretty safe 1st RD bet.

I have to agree on TreVeyon Henderson. I love Henderson and his fit in DEN, WAS or even with the Chargers, but he's always been a tandem RB, and a tandem RB is an unlikely 1st-rounder. I'm considering DL or CB for DEN now - Payton could easily like Day Two guys like Kaleb Johnson or D.J Giddens.

Be careful how high you slot Josh Simmons. I live in Columbus. Trust me - be careful.

@The Champ 

I think Loveland could easily pop off before Warren.

I really like that ATL/Ersery pick. McGary is a much better run-blocker than pass-blocker, and he's now the blindside protector with the lefty under center. ATL has been scouting OTs heavily during the pre-draft process. I just wonder if Ersery makes it out of the top 40. He's in play for KC and PHI at the bottom of RD 1.

I think the Giants might like Milroe, too. There's the Bama connection, and while the Giants aren't winning the SB with that Wilson/Winston QB room, it's the kinda QB situation that suggests a project rookie QB that might need a redshirt season. That seems to point more toward Milroe than Sanders/Dart. Milroe's raw, rushing threat/bazooka-but-inaccurate arm skill set has parallels to early Josh Allen, who Daboll was instrumental in refining in BUF.

@pinballer3 

Banks' current 13.5 O/U is poised to drop. The UNDER is getting hammered. I'm not surprised at all. On tape, he's the cleanest LT prospect in the draft. I never understood why he ever dropped outside of the top-10 in mocks. Maybe prospect fatigue...I dunno. He's just so good, clean and consistent that it's boring. I think he's in play for the Jets at 1.07 and wouldn't be shocked if the Pats just picked him over T-Rex at 1.04.

Membou at LT is pure projection. I mean, he might be able to, but I see no evidence of it on tape. He plays like a guard. That would be a risky pick for SF if Membou slides.

Campbell plays so upright. I don't see him at guard. He'll lose the leverage game in there. I doubt he gets out of the top-10 though.

I was on the SF/future LT at 1.11 train for a while, but I'm off it now. Just really think that the 49ers can't afford to f*ck around. They absolutely have to address the DL early and often in this draft. Bosa is all alone. You put that DL out there against the Rams OL, and Stafford eats that defense alive.

I like your trade ideas. If Carter somehow slips a bit or if JAX passes on Graham I could see the 'Niners making a move up for one of them. The Giants packaging 2.34 and Thibodeaux to move up into the 1st RD for Sanders makes a lot of sense, too.

Just so you know, there's actually a late round/UFA DE prospect from Mizzu in this draft named Johnny Walker Jr. lol

@The Champ 

Hopefully Ballard sobers up and comes to his senses. Indy could be dangerous with Sanders under center.

Evan Silva's new mock is strange. Not the fact that he erases the chalk with Barron at 1.05, Zabel at 1.10, etc. - which I don't mind at all because the draft never goes down like the chalk predicts - but some of the rationale for the picks is suspect.

Is he insinuating that Zabel could play LT for CHI? Zabel is an iOL. Top-10 pick for iOL depth?

"...This would be a best-player-available situation for the Saints, who may have entered full-blown rebuild mode, tanking 2025 before targeting Arch Manning in 2026’s draft"

The Saints have given zero indication that they aren't trying to contend, and the tanking for Arch stuff is amateur hour considering Silva's experience. Arch is completely unproven and no Manning has ever declared early.

"...Booker is a plug-and-play starting left guard with potential to eventually compete at left tackle"

This is approaching spit-take territory. Booker will never play LT in the NFL.

Some context for Barron: He played boundary at a 70% clip out of necessity. He thrived because he's just a really good player. However, he played exclusively inside as an underclassman - bouncing around in a Brian Branch-type role - and that's where he'll be most valuable at the NFL level. Silva should know that Barron isn't a top-5 value as a boundary corner. He has 29 inch arms for chrissakes.

Evan Silva's new mock is strange. Not the fact that he erases the chalk with Barron at 1.05, Zabel at 1.10, etc. - which I don't mind at all because the draft never goes down like the chalk predicts - but some of the rationale for the picks is suspect.

Is he insinuating that Zabel could play LT for CHI? Zabel is an iOL. Top-10 pick for iOL depth?

"...This would be a best-player-available situation for the Saints, who may have entered full-blown rebuild mode, tanking 2025 before targeting Arch Manning in 2026’s draft"

The Saints have given zero indication that they aren't trying to contend, and the tanking for Arch stuff is amateur hour considering Silva's experience. Arch is completely unproven and no Manning has ever declared early.

"...Booker is a plug-and-play starting left guard with potential to eventually compete at left tackle"

This is approaching spit-take territory. Booker will never play LT in the NFL.

Some context for Barron: He played boundary at a 70% clip out of necessity. He thrived because he's just a really good player. However, he played exclusively inside as an underclassman - bouncing around in a Brian Branch-type role - and that's where he'll be most valuable at the NFL level. Silva should know that Barron isn't a top-5 value as a boundary corner. He has 29 inch arms for chrissakes.

Evan Silva's new mock is strange. Not the fact that he erases the chalk with Barron at 1.05, Zabel at 1.10, etc. - which I don't mind at all because the draft never goes down like the chalk predicts - but some of the rationale for the picks is suspect.

Is he insinuating that Zabel could play LT for CHI? Zabel is an iOL. Top-10 pick for iOL depth?

"...This would be a best-player-available situation for the Saints, who may have entered full-blown rebuild mode, tanking 2025 before targeting Arch Manning in 2026’s draft"

The Saints have given zero indication that they aren't trying to contend, and the tanking for Arch stuff is amateur hour considering Silva's experience. Arch is completely unproven and no Manning has ever declared early.

"...Booker is a plug-and-play starting left guard with potential to eventually compete at left tackle"

This is approaching spit-take territory. Booker will never play LT in the NFL.

Some context for Barron: He played boundary at a 70% clip out of necessity. He thrived because he's just a really good player. However, he played exclusively inside as an underclassman - bouncing around in a Brian Branch-type role - and that's where he'll be most valuable at the NFL level. Silva should know that Barron isn't a top-5 value as a boundary corner. He has 29 inch arms for chrissakes.

Evan Silva's new mock is strange. Not the fact that he erases the chalk with Barron at 1.05, Zabel at 1.10, etc. - which I don't mind at all because the draft never goes down like the chalk predicts - but some of the rationale for the picks is suspect.

Is he insinuating that Zabel could play LT for CHI? Zabel is an iOL. Top-10 pick for iOL depth?

"...This would be a best-player-available situation for the Saints, who may have entered full-blown rebuild mode, tanking 2025 before targeting Arch Manning in 2026’s draft"

The Saints have given zero indication that they aren't trying to contend, and the tanking for Arch stuff is amateur hour considering Silva's experience. Arch is completely unproven and no Manning has ever declared early.

"...Booker is a plug-and-play starting left guard with potential to eventually compete at left tackle"

This is approaching spit-take territory. Booker will never play LT in the NFL.

Some context for Barron: He played boundary at a 70% clip out of necessity. He thrived because he's just a really good player. However, he played exclusively inside as an underclassman - bouncing around in a Brian Branch-type role - and that's where he'll be most valuable at the NFL level. Silva should know that Barron isn't a top-5 value as a boundary corner. He has 29 inch arms for chrissakes.

Evan Silva's new mock is strange. Not the fact that he erases the chalk with Barron at 1.05, Zabel at 1.10, etc. - which I don't mind at all because the draft never goes down like the chalk predicts - but some of the rationale for the picks is suspect.

Is he insinuating that Zabel could play LT for CHI? Zabel is an iOL. Top-10 pick for iOL depth?

"...This would be a best-player-available situation for the Saints, who may have entered full-blown rebuild mode, tanking 2025 before targeting Arch Manning in 2026’s draft"

The Saints have given zero indication that they aren't trying to contend, and the tanking for Arch stuff is amateur hour considering Silva's experience. Arch is completely unproven and no Manning has ever declared early.

"...Booker is a plug-and-play starting left guard with potential to eventually compete at left tackle"

This is approaching spit-take territory. Booker will never play LT in the NFL.

Some context for Barron: He played boundary at a 70% clip out of necessity. He thrived because he's just a really good player. However, he played exclusively inside as an underclassman - bouncing around in a Brian Branch-type role - and that's where he'll be most valuable at the NFL level. Silva should know that Barron isn't a top-5 value as a boundary corner. He has 29 inch arms for chrissakes.

Some thoughts a week out:

For my fellow draft prop odds watchers, am I the only one noticing some weirdness with Armand Membou? There's a lot of recent smoke that the Raiders will take Membou at 1.06 thanks to John Spytek's history of going hard and heavy on the trenches while at TB (including Wirfs, a similar prospect to Membou) and Dane Brugler's newest mock that pairs LV/Membou. Yet Membou's 6.5 O/U odds continue to bloat to the OVER and are currently at -400. If Membou makes a ton of sense for the Jets, then why doesn't he make a ton of sense for the Raiders? Or has Membou been overrated all along and is poised to slide?

Some predictions:

JAX will take Jeanty at 1.05. BPA. It's all about helping out Trevor Lawrence for the new regime. I get that Mason Graham is a tidy fit, but there should be good DT value available to JAX at 2.36. (Walter Nolen, Tyliek Williams, Alfred Collins, T.J. Sanders, maybe even Kenneth Grant or Derrick Harmon.)

Shemar Stewart goes top-10.

CAR opts for Mason Graham, Mykel Williams or Shemar Stewart over Jalon Walker, or trades down with a team looking to jump NO for a QB. Walker drops to the teens, perhaps to ARI to join Deone Bucannon, Isaiah Simmons and Zaven Collins in their line of 1st RD 'tweener busts.

If the Broncos go RB in the 1st RD, they'll opt for TreVeyon Henderson over Omarion Hampton. Darkhorse options for DEN: Walter Nolen and Derrick Harmon.

If Hampton slides to the Chiefs at 1.31, they'll take him.

The Colts will not draft a TE at 1.14. They'll draft Grey Zabel or Shedeur Sanders.

PHI will select Walter Nolen, Derrick Harmon, Mason Taylor or Nic Scourton.

The recent Tyler Shough buzz fizzles out as he slides to Day Three.

@The Champ 

For sure. Watts especially. Geno Stone is a cap casualty waiting to happen. Watts is going to be coveted by FS-needy teams looking to win now. After Malaki Starks, Watts is the only FS prospect ready to start.

I love that WAS/Henderson pick. Daniels/Henderson together in the backfield would be terrifying.

Can't see Shemar Stewart slipping out of the 1st RD. The upside is just too immense. That's a Myles Garrett athletic profile. Stewart currently has very healthy Vegas odds to go in the 1st RD.

ATL-related question: The Falcons currently have Ruke Orhorhoro as the starting NT on their depth chart. Orhorhoro is a decent run-stopper that I've heard ATL is high on, but he's very slim for a 3-4 NT. He seems to be best suited for 3-4 DE, but I've heard nothing as far as ATL kicking the tires on pure NTs like Kenneth Grant and Tyliek Williams during the pre-draft process. It seems a clogger like Grant would free up ATL's bevy of undersized edge-rushers to get home to the QB and improve that 29th-ranked sacks-from-pressure rate. Do you think ATL is really satisfied with Orhorhoro at NT? They've only had potential 3-4 DEs (TJ Sanders, Omarr Norman-Lott) in for Top30 visits. Just seems odd.

I love that WAS/Henderson pick. Daniels/Henderson together in the backfield would be terrifying.

Can't see Shemar Stewart slipping out of the 1st RD. The upside is just too immense. That's a Myles Garrett athletic profile. Stewart currently has very healthy Vegas odds to go in the 1st RD.

ATL-related question: The Falcons currently have Ruke Orhorhoro as the starting NT on their depth chart. Orhorhoro is a decent run-stopper that I've heard ATL is high on, but he's very slim for a 3-4 NT. He seems to be best suited for 3-4 DE, but I've heard nothing as far as ATL kicking the tires on pure NTs like Kenneth Grant and Tyliek Williams during the pre-draft process. It seems a clogger like Grant would free up ATL's bevy of undersized edge-rushers to get home to the QB and improve that 29th-ranked sacks-from-pressure rate. Do you think ATL is really satisfied with Orhorhoro at NT? They've only had potential 3-4 DEs (TJ Sanders, Omarr Norman-Lott) in for Top30 visits. Just seems odd.

@42yardline 

Revel is already 24 yet still raw, press-man boundary only and has had awful injury luck going back to H.S. I'm not convinced that he sneaks into the 1st RD like some mocks are predicting.

Will Johnson didn't run a forty at his workout for NFL scouts yesterday, and there are reports that he was clocking forty times in the high 4.5s during training. He could slide. He'd be a great fit opposite Benford in BUF's zone-heavy scheme.