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ATL +6  Do the Colts bounce back or has Danny Dimes turned back into a pumpkin? Which ATL team will show up? DeForest Buckner is OUT, but will ATL be able to take advantage with Bergeron and possibly Lindstrom OUT? Will Sauce Gardner be up to speed and able to control Drake London? Too many questions to bet this one, but my best guess is ATL covers but loses due to a crucial Penix mistake and/or a Zane Gonzalez missed FG or two, while IND stumbles into their BYE.

CAR -5.5  No, I don't think CAR is suddenly a legit NFC contender, but I'm leaning on an underrated, intangible angle in this matchup: The Panthers are establishing an identity, while the Saints aren't. NO has no plan beyond yanking two backup-quality QBs in and out of the lineup and trotting out the ghosts of Kamara, T. Hill, Jordan, etc., and expecting anything to change, while Canales has established CAR as a competitive, smashmouth team. This counts for something...enough for me to go light on CAR. 

I think Dowdle's success will continue vs. NO. While the Saints have been okay overall vs. the run, they have given up the 5th-most explosive rushes in the NFL. Since becoming the starter, Dowdle is 1st in the NFL in explosive rushes.

CHI -4.5  I'm with Walt here. The NYG run defense - which is basically just Sexy Dexy and tumbleweeds - is dead last in EPA per rush, just as the CHI running game is getting into a full lather behind that revamped O-line. Bears with a methodical, comfortable win.

HOU +1  This pick hinges on the availability of Will Anderson Jr. (QUESTIONABLE), as Anderson/Hunter taking turns pinning their ears back vs. atrocious JAX LT Walker Little would wreck the Jags offense. Must-win for HOU, but I'm not trusting Davis Mills and no running game unless the defense is fully dominant. Anderson likely plays, meaning I'm likely to bet HOU light.  

BUF -9.5  Classic trap game, but a) the Bills are still looking up at the Pats in the standings and b) the Dolphins are an auto-fade. Josh Allen game.

NYJ +2  Jets fan here to tell you how this will go down: Because this is exactly the type of game the Jets win to blow their chance at batting leadoff in the '26 Draft, rookie CB Azareye'h Thomas gets a pick-six in what will otherwise be the ugliest win this season. Vibes are good in Jersey for a few days, then the Jets get slobberknockered by NE next Thursday. Bank it. It's what the Jets do.

BAL -4  Have we forgotten what J.J. McCarthy looked like earlier this season? I haven't.  

ATL -7 NON-BET  I don't trust Tua right now, but I don't trust an injured Penix, either. There might be a QB controversy slowly brewing in ATL and I'm tempted to get ahead of it, but MIA seems to have tapped out and has to be faded until they show some fight.

ATL is a better team at home and Bijan could make an MVP statement vs. MIA's saloon door run D, but ATL's overall inconsistency and Achane on a rug has me fearful of a back and forth game and a backdoor cover. 

CHI +6.5 NON-BET  BAL was my preseason SB pick, and I'm trying my best not to let that cloud my judgement.

A lot of things have to click in order for BAL to get out of their 1-5 hole, even against the 7th-easiest remaining schedule, and while they're getting reinforcements off their BYE, I'm not sure they'll just be able to flip the switch vs. a hot CHI team that may feel disrespected by this point spread. The BAL defense sucks right now without Madubuike, and he's not coming back.

BUF -7 NON-BET  I've gone back n forth here. BUF's struggling D gets a few D-line depth pieces back for this one, but now DaQuan Jones and Taylor Rapp are OUT. CAR should be able to establish the run vs. BUF, but what if Josh Allen comes out hot and the Bills jump out to an early lead? I simply am not betting Dalton over Allen in this situation.

CIN -6.5 LOVE  I don't think CIN's springboard win over PIT saves their season, but it provides more than enough momentum to TCB against the awful, poorly-coached Jets.

For NY, Wilson and Sauce have already been ruled OUT, and now Breece Hall and Mason Taylor are QUESTIONABLE. The Jets simply can't score points right now and must be faded.

SF +2.5 LIKE  This is a must-win for HOU...but so was their loss to SEA. Screw the net points...why should I assume that HOU will break out of their offensive funk when they have zero running game, their O-line is still sh*t, and Nico Collins is likely OUT? Why should I assume a finally-healthy CMC won't dominate? 

CLE +7 NON-BET  Maye>Gabriel means no cabbage, but running game and defense travels, so NE should be on upset alert - especially if CLE can win the TO battle. (Looking at YOU, Stevenson.)

ATL -7 NON-BET  I don't trust Tua right now, but I don't trust an injured Penix, either. There might be a QB controversy slowly brewing in ATL and I'm tempted to get ahead of it, but MIA seems to have tapped out and has to be faded until they show some fight.

ATL is a better team at home and Bijan could make an MVP statement vs. MIA's saloon door run D, but ATL's overall inconsistency and Achane on a rug has me fearful of a back and forth game and a backdoor cover. 

CHI +6.5 NON-BET  BAL was my preseason SB pick, and I'm trying my best not to let that cloud my judgement.

A lot of things have to click in order for BAL to get out of their 1-5 hole, even against the 7th-easiest remaining schedule, and while they're getting reinforcements off their BYE, I'm not sure they'll just be able to flip the switch vs. a hot CHI team that may feel disrespected by this point spread. The BAL defense sucks right now without Madubuike, and he's not coming back.

BUF -7 NON-BET  I've gone back n forth here. BUF's struggling D gets a few D-line depth pieces back for this one, but now DaQuan Jones and Taylor Rapp are OUT. CAR should be able to establish the run vs. BUF, but what if Josh Allen comes out hot and the Bills jump out to an early lead? I simply am not betting Dalton over Allen in this situation.

CIN -6.5 LOVE  I don't think CIN's springboard win over PIT saves their season, but it provides more than enough momentum to TCB against the awful, poorly-coached Jets.

For NY, Wilson and Sauce have already been ruled OUT, and now Breece Hall and Mason Taylor are QUESTIONABLE. The Jets simply can't score points right now and must be faded.

SF +2.5 LIKE  This is a must-win for HOU...but so was their loss to SEA. Screw the net points...why should I assume that HOU will break out of their offensive funk when they have zero running game, their O-line is still sh*t, and Nico Collins is likely OUT? Why should I assume a finally-healthy CMC won't dominate? 

CLE +7 NON-BET  Maye>Gabriel means no cabbage, but running game and defense travels, so NE should be on upset alert - especially if CLE can win the TO battle. (Looking at YOU, Stevenson.)

@Baird 

You've convinced me. That 'Niners defensive depth chart is looking pretty grim. Like the Lions, SF wears their ability to overcome injuries like a badge of honor - a factor I feel sometimes isn't fully baked into the line for SF and DET - but there comes a point where the hits are too much to overcome. If HOU's offense can't get right in this one...

ATL -7 NON-BET  I don't trust Tua right now, but I don't trust an injured Penix, either. There might be a QB controversy slowly brewing in ATL and I'm tempted to get ahead of it, but MIA seems to have tapped out and has to be faded until they show some fight.

ATL is a better team at home and Bijan could make an MVP statement vs. MIA's saloon door run D, but ATL's overall inconsistency and Achane on a rug has me fearful of a back and forth game and a backdoor cover. 

CHI +6.5 NON-BET  BAL was my preseason SB pick, and I'm trying my best not to let that cloud my judgement.

A lot of things have to click in order for BAL to get out of their 1-5 hole, even against the 7th-easiest remaining schedule, and while they're getting reinforcements off their BYE, I'm not sure they'll just be able to flip the switch vs. a hot CHI team that may feel disrespected by this point spread. The BAL defense sucks right now without Madubuike, and he's not coming back.

BUF -7 NON-BET  I've gone back n forth here. BUF's struggling D gets a few D-line depth pieces back for this one, but now DaQuan Jones and Taylor Rapp are OUT. CAR should be able to establish the run vs. BUF, but what if Josh Allen comes out hot and the Bills jump out to an early lead? I simply am not betting Dalton over Allen in this situation.

CIN -6.5 LOVE  I don't think CIN's springboard win over PIT saves their season, but it provides more than enough momentum to TCB against the awful, poorly-coached Jets.

For NY, Wilson and Sauce have already been ruled OUT, and now Breece Hall and Mason Taylor are QUESTIONABLE. The Jets simply can't score points right now and must be faded.

SF +2.5 LIKE  This is a must-win for HOU...but so was their loss to SEA. Screw the net points...why should I assume that HOU will break out of their offensive funk when they have zero running game, their O-line is still sh*t, and Nico Collins is likely OUT? Why should I assume a finally-healthy CMC won't dominate? 

CLE +7 NON-BET  Maye>Gabriel means no cabbage, but running game and defense travels, so NE should be on upset alert - especially if CLE can win the TO battle. (Looking at YOU, Stevenson.)

@Billl2021 

Your take was logical, but Dan Campbell's ability to overcome a rash of injuries is something that may need to be baked into handicapping the Lions going forward. Every coach uses the "next man up" cliche, but they take it seriously in Detroit. They did it last season, and now they're doing it with the secondary this season. It's nuts.

@Baird 

The CIN victory over PIT definitely felt like a springboard game. Maybe even kept Hendrickson in Cincy. I don't anticipate Flacco keeping it up and saving CIN's season, but there's no reason why they shouldn't TCB vs. my Jets. The Jets are a hot mess, and Tyrod Taylor might be playing hurt if he starts.

I know it's early, but Aaron Glenn already has a good coordinator/bad head coach vibe.

It's not hard to believe that CAR is vastly improved vs. the run. Derrick Brown.

The Jets are an auto-fade for me until Tyrod Taylor takes over under center. Rookie TE Mason Taylor is currently Fields' top receiving option. The Jets simply can't score points.

I agree that CAR isn't suddenly a playoff contender, but they should win this game. You're letting your resistance to the idea that CAR is improved cloud your judgement.

CAR returns Hubbard, Coker , J. Sanders, Moton, Corbett and Wharton this week. They are currently in a lather running the ball and stopping the run. That travels. CAR 27 NYJ 13

@Baird 

If the Ravens were playing a team with a functional passing game, I wouldn't touch them given all the injuries in the secondary. But HOU hasn't been able to throw the ball for a while.

I still believe the Ravens are an elite team that will round into form as they get healthier, so I wanna get out ahead of it. BAL could really get into a lather Weeks 8 through 14 (lotta cupcakes) and I'm gonna bet a small wager that tomorrow's game will be an early springboard into that. Kinda my contrarian pick of the week. 

"...the Rams may not be totally focused against the 49ers, given how many backups San Francisco will be utilizing"

McVay-coached team...divisional rivalry for first place...c'mon, Walt.

"...the Rams may not be totally focused against the 49ers, given how many backups San Francisco will be utilizing"

McVay-coached team...divisional rivalry for first place...c'mon, Walt.

@Baird 

I appreciate the fine tooth comb treatment for CLE/MIN. Non-bet for me, as I don't trust Wentz, yet wonder how long the CLE defense will be happy with doing the heavy lifting while the offense stagnates around a revolving door of bad QBs. (As a pretty dedicated draftnik, I'm here to tell you Gabriel ain't it.) We've seen even the best of defenses eventually tap out in such situations.

I wouldn't count on the Cam Robinson angle. Washed journeyman who should only be shoring up practice squads.

LOVE

DET -10  To control Myles Garrett, Sewell and Decker is about the best OT duo you could ask for, and even the best of defenses eventually tap out when there's no support from the offense. CLE's win vs. GB will be a blip on the radar of another lost season that will result in the (unfair) firing of Stefanski.

For DET, Morton's offense is in a lather, while the defense should be able to contain Judkins. I just don't see an "on switch" for the CLE attack in this spot. Aidan Hutchinson vs. a CLE 3rd-string RT called "KT Leveston" and LT Cornelius Lucas reeks of a game-wrecking situation. I anticipate double-digit DET wins vs. CLE and Week 5 vs. CIN.

t;LIKEt;

MIN -2.5  Vibes are good in MIN. Prepare for louder "should Wentz remain the starter" chatter following this one. This is what Kevin O'Connell does, and the Steelers have been far more lucky than good this season.

I'm concerned that D.K. Metcalf may be able to light up MIN's suspect secondary, but given that Aaron Rodgers was 30th in QBR and 33rd in YPA vs. the blitz in '24, I doubt the Flores defense will allow the immobile Rodgers the time to locate Metcalf.

@Billl2021 

To be fair, BAL was without an elite DT (Madubuike) and Van Noy. Replay the game with those two healthy and I doubt DET is ripping off all those 10 yard + runs. But yeah, DET came to play and probably would have won regardless, especially now that Derrick Henry is Mr. Butterfingers.

WEEK 3 Early Games ATS: 

ATL, MIN, GB, HOU, IND, LAR, LV, TB, NE

Even the best of defenses eventually tap out when they're getting no support from their offense. GB 27, CLE 14

GLTA

@Karensman 

Bone. Not white...bone.

ARI -6.5  I gave Bryce Young one week, and Walt is right - Bryce Young sucks. He has limitations that can't be overcome at the NFL level, and - like last season - I'm betting his poor performance will snowball. I expect the ARI D to get some TOs and Conner/Benson to take turns gashing the CAR D. 

I kinda like the Cardinals this year. Yeah, they're probably looking at a 2-0 start vs. two of the worst teams in the league, but ARI's roster is talented and they could easily be 6-1 going into their BYE. 

@Baird 

Yeah, Carter's DROY chances look promising. The Dart era could begin as soon as this Sunday for the Giants, which may increase the likelihood that Thibodeaux gets traded, meaning even more snaps/opportunity for Carter.

I still think Malaki Starks is in a great position to rack up some big plays and narrow the lead, and I've got my eye on CIN LB Demetrius Knight Jr., who was flying around everywhere and super-productive Week One. Could be a Shaquille Leonard-type situation where Knight just puts up so many numbers that he forces the voters' hands.

@WFDevTeam 

DFS Contest?

@Baird

Last thing: With the SF WR corps battered and disorganized, my biggest fear is that the Niners will just kill SEA with a steady diet of George Kittle.

I'm interested to see if the Seahawks employ Nick Emmanwori (my darkhorse to join Malaki Starks, Abdul Carter and draft crush Jahdae Barron in the DROY race) as something resembling a Kittle/McBride-eraser. Emmanwori's skill set is perfect for the job.

@Baird

Jordan Elliott. Kalia Davis. Dee Winters. Upton Stout. Ji'Ayir Brown. Jason Pinnock. These are current STARTERS on the SF defensive depth chart.

Also: If the game is close, the 49ers are at a disadvantage with their historically bad ST units. Ultra-inconsistent Jake Moody is somehow still the kicker, with washed Thomas Morstead at punter.

Be careful not to overuse the "hipster pick" thing.

I'm also not sold on Bryce Young and predict the Panthers will finish 3rd in the NFC South, but CAR seems to have some direction under Canales, so the idea of the Panthers winning a weak division isn't outlandish if I'm wrong about Young.

CAR has improved their offensive and defensive lines and bolstered the rushing attack over the last two seasons - which is usually a good formula for establishing long-term success. Teams could run at will vs. CAR last season, but the return of Derrick Brown along with FA and draft additions will likely change that. The Panthers might be a tough out.

A "hipster pick" would be the Dolphins to win 11 games or something.

@Baird 

Waiting for official injury reports, weather, etc, then will set you chumps straight.

Until then, I couldn't agree with you more on SF/SEA.

The Niners are being valued as if they're the same team from two years ago. They're not.

Cheap Purdy and expensive Purdy are two different beasts, both from individual pressure and team-building standpoints.

The WR corps and O-line are problematic.

Christian McCaffrey and Trent Williams might be washed.

Other than Bosa and Warner, the defense is nothing but question marks and unproven youngsters. (Right now, SEA has the better defense. As do LAR and ARI.)

There's profit in fading SF until folks catch up. 

@42yardline 

Their best decision since ditching those mid-2000s, CFL-looking uniforms.

@Sdoc135 

I was thinking the same thing - especially with the possibility that A.J. Brown is rusty off that hamstring injury - but now it appears that Trevon Diggs will be OUT for DAL. That leaves Kaiir Elam as DAL's top outside CB. Not good. Still, the Cowboys have backdoor potential against a PHI defense that lost a lot of veteran leaders and is incorporating new, young parts. Probably a non-bet for me.

The Vikings are hard to read. Still, I think this list overvalues them. 

O'Connell has a knack for extracting lemonade from lemons at QB, but those were veterans. McCarthy is green and didn't throw too many passes at Michigan. We'll see.

The MIN interior O-line improvements look good on paper, but the Vikes are relying on a rookie and two injury-plagued guys the Colts and other suitors had no interest in overpaying. The situation doesn't feel as dependable as the Thuney/Dalman upgrades to the CHI interior O-line.

I worry about the MIN run defense. After trading Harrison Phillips, there's no real NT to keep blockers off of Cashman and Pace.

The MIN secondary is worrisome. Jeff Okudah is a starter. Not good. And Harrison Smith could become a liability at any second.

@Osmodiar 

I think it depends on what the CLE front office/coaching staff looks like by draft day, and whether the Browns address the offensive supporting cast by then. As you mentioned in an earlier comment, the Browns interior O-line needs rebuilding. (I would add that LT is still a problem, as Dawand Jones should be at RT.)

If the Mannings are convinced that a new CLE brain trust has a plan, then why not the Browns for Arch? If Arch is the real deal, then he might embrace the idea of carving out his own legacy in CLE.

@cb8518846 

Out of curiosity, why do you think Tampa will be in play for Arch in '27? Jason Licht has given every indication that the Bucs will extend Mayfield. TB is a stable organization with solid foundational pieces and an explosive offense with a good, young O-line and should still be stacked with playmakers if the post-Godwin/Evans era comes sooner than expected. I'd say it's more likely that the '27 draft will have teams like MIA, CLE, TEN, SF, NO and maybe even DAL batting at the top of the order.

Your ARI call is interesting. They could easily move on from Kyler if he continues to under-perform and get hurt. Still, the Cards have a talented young roster. I can't see them bottoming out so quickly. 

@Charlie Campbell 

Given the fact that Manning QBs have historically stayed until their Sr. years and Arch's relative inexperience, I can understand omitting Arch from this mock draft. I also believe that Sellers could emerge as the top prize (with Fernando Mendoza a darkhorse), as guys like Nussmeier (undersized/iffy decision-maker) and Klubnik (questionable arm) might be closer to Day 2 than top-of-the-draft prospects. 

I personally think TEN remains the least-talented team in the NFL (they're STILL talking up Treylon Burks lol) and will again bat leadoff in the '26 Draft. (Cam Ward will be a bust, but TEN won't pull the plug after just one season.) If I'm right, CLE has to be the front-runner to move up to 1.01, regardless of Berry's history. Also of note: Chances are good that Berry will be unemployed by the time the '26 Draft rolls around. Any new regime's top priority will be ending the decades-long shit show at QB.

@The Champ

You know what...scratch that about Henderson. Jahmyr Gibbs is a tandem RB and he popped off at 1.12. There are always surprise 1st RD picks and explosive offensive weapons are at a premium. I like Henderson better than Hampton, and Feldman's article suggests that a lot of NFL decision-makers feel the same. I'm finding a spot for Henderson in the 1st RD.

@The Champ 

For what it's worth, the Pewter Report - where Charlie Campbell used to work - like Donovan Ezeiruaka at 1.19 and Demetrius Knight or Jeffrey Bassa in RD 3 or 4 for the Bucs. They've been on Ezeiruaka all along and never seriously considered Jihaad Campbell there. They have historically been pretty sharp with TB's picks.

The UNDER on Egbuka's 29.0 O/U (-275) and OVER on the 2.5 total WRs drafted in the 1sr RD (-280) are getting juicier. I think Egbuka is a pretty safe 1st RD bet.

I have to agree on TreVeyon Henderson. I love Henderson and his fit in DEN, WAS or even with the Chargers, but he's always been a tandem RB, and a tandem RB is an unlikely 1st-rounder. I'm considering DL or CB for DEN now - Payton could easily like Day Two guys like Kaleb Johnson or D.J Giddens.

Be careful how high you slot Josh Simmons. I live in Columbus. Trust me - be careful.

@The Champ 

I think Loveland could easily pop off before Warren.

I really like that ATL/Ersery pick. McGary is a much better run-blocker than pass-blocker, and he's now the blindside protector with the lefty under center. ATL has been scouting OTs heavily during the pre-draft process. I just wonder if Ersery makes it out of the top 40. He's in play for KC and PHI at the bottom of RD 1.

I think the Giants might like Milroe, too. There's the Bama connection, and while the Giants aren't winning the SB with that Wilson/Winston QB room, it's the kinda QB situation that suggests a project rookie QB that might need a redshirt season. That seems to point more toward Milroe than Sanders/Dart. Milroe's raw, rushing threat/bazooka-but-inaccurate arm skill set has parallels to early Josh Allen, who Daboll was instrumental in refining in BUF.

@pinballer3 

Banks' current 13.5 O/U is poised to drop. The UNDER is getting hammered. I'm not surprised at all. On tape, he's the cleanest LT prospect in the draft. I never understood why he ever dropped outside of the top-10 in mocks. Maybe prospect fatigue...I dunno. He's just so good, clean and consistent that it's boring. I think he's in play for the Jets at 1.07 and wouldn't be shocked if the Pats just picked him over T-Rex at 1.04.

Membou at LT is pure projection. I mean, he might be able to, but I see no evidence of it on tape. He plays like a guard. That would be a risky pick for SF if Membou slides.

Campbell plays so upright. I don't see him at guard. He'll lose the leverage game in there. I doubt he gets out of the top-10 though.

I was on the SF/future LT at 1.11 train for a while, but I'm off it now. Just really think that the 49ers can't afford to f*ck around. They absolutely have to address the DL early and often in this draft. Bosa is all alone. You put that DL out there against the Rams OL, and Stafford eats that defense alive.

I like your trade ideas. If Carter somehow slips a bit or if JAX passes on Graham I could see the 'Niners making a move up for one of them. The Giants packaging 2.34 and Thibodeaux to move up into the 1st RD for Sanders makes a lot of sense, too.

Just so you know, there's actually a late round/UFA DE prospect from Mizzu in this draft named Johnny Walker Jr. lol

@The Champ 

Hopefully Ballard sobers up and comes to his senses. Indy could be dangerous with Sanders under center.

Evan Silva's new mock is strange. Not the fact that he erases the chalk with Barron at 1.05, Zabel at 1.10, etc. - which I don't mind at all because the draft never goes down like the chalk predicts - but some of the rationale for the picks is suspect.

Is he insinuating that Zabel could play LT for CHI? Zabel is an iOL. Top-10 pick for iOL depth?

"...This would be a best-player-available situation for the Saints, who may have entered full-blown rebuild mode, tanking 2025 before targeting Arch Manning in 2026’s draft"

The Saints have given zero indication that they aren't trying to contend, and the tanking for Arch stuff is amateur hour considering Silva's experience. Arch is completely unproven and no Manning has ever declared early.

"...Booker is a plug-and-play starting left guard with potential to eventually compete at left tackle"

This is approaching spit-take territory. Booker will never play LT in the NFL.

Some context for Barron: He played boundary at a 70% clip out of necessity. He thrived because he's just a really good player. However, he played exclusively inside as an underclassman - bouncing around in a Brian Branch-type role - and that's where he'll be most valuable at the NFL level. Silva should know that Barron isn't a top-5 value as a boundary corner. He has 29 inch arms for chrissakes.

Evan Silva's new mock is strange. Not the fact that he erases the chalk with Barron at 1.05, Zabel at 1.10, etc. - which I don't mind at all because the draft never goes down like the chalk predicts - but some of the rationale for the picks is suspect.

Is he insinuating that Zabel could play LT for CHI? Zabel is an iOL. Top-10 pick for iOL depth?

"...This would be a best-player-available situation for the Saints, who may have entered full-blown rebuild mode, tanking 2025 before targeting Arch Manning in 2026’s draft"

The Saints have given zero indication that they aren't trying to contend, and the tanking for Arch stuff is amateur hour considering Silva's experience. Arch is completely unproven and no Manning has ever declared early.

"...Booker is a plug-and-play starting left guard with potential to eventually compete at left tackle"

This is approaching spit-take territory. Booker will never play LT in the NFL.

Some context for Barron: He played boundary at a 70% clip out of necessity. He thrived because he's just a really good player. However, he played exclusively inside as an underclassman - bouncing around in a Brian Branch-type role - and that's where he'll be most valuable at the NFL level. Silva should know that Barron isn't a top-5 value as a boundary corner. He has 29 inch arms for chrissakes.

Evan Silva's new mock is strange. Not the fact that he erases the chalk with Barron at 1.05, Zabel at 1.10, etc. - which I don't mind at all because the draft never goes down like the chalk predicts - but some of the rationale for the picks is suspect.

Is he insinuating that Zabel could play LT for CHI? Zabel is an iOL. Top-10 pick for iOL depth?

"...This would be a best-player-available situation for the Saints, who may have entered full-blown rebuild mode, tanking 2025 before targeting Arch Manning in 2026’s draft"

The Saints have given zero indication that they aren't trying to contend, and the tanking for Arch stuff is amateur hour considering Silva's experience. Arch is completely unproven and no Manning has ever declared early.

"...Booker is a plug-and-play starting left guard with potential to eventually compete at left tackle"

This is approaching spit-take territory. Booker will never play LT in the NFL.

Some context for Barron: He played boundary at a 70% clip out of necessity. He thrived because he's just a really good player. However, he played exclusively inside as an underclassman - bouncing around in a Brian Branch-type role - and that's where he'll be most valuable at the NFL level. Silva should know that Barron isn't a top-5 value as a boundary corner. He has 29 inch arms for chrissakes.

Evan Silva's new mock is strange. Not the fact that he erases the chalk with Barron at 1.05, Zabel at 1.10, etc. - which I don't mind at all because the draft never goes down like the chalk predicts - but some of the rationale for the picks is suspect.

Is he insinuating that Zabel could play LT for CHI? Zabel is an iOL. Top-10 pick for iOL depth?

"...This would be a best-player-available situation for the Saints, who may have entered full-blown rebuild mode, tanking 2025 before targeting Arch Manning in 2026’s draft"

The Saints have given zero indication that they aren't trying to contend, and the tanking for Arch stuff is amateur hour considering Silva's experience. Arch is completely unproven and no Manning has ever declared early.

"...Booker is a plug-and-play starting left guard with potential to eventually compete at left tackle"

This is approaching spit-take territory. Booker will never play LT in the NFL.

Some context for Barron: He played boundary at a 70% clip out of necessity. He thrived because he's just a really good player. However, he played exclusively inside as an underclassman - bouncing around in a Brian Branch-type role - and that's where he'll be most valuable at the NFL level. Silva should know that Barron isn't a top-5 value as a boundary corner. He has 29 inch arms for chrissakes.

Evan Silva's new mock is strange. Not the fact that he erases the chalk with Barron at 1.05, Zabel at 1.10, etc. - which I don't mind at all because the draft never goes down like the chalk predicts - but some of the rationale for the picks is suspect.

Is he insinuating that Zabel could play LT for CHI? Zabel is an iOL. Top-10 pick for iOL depth?

"...This would be a best-player-available situation for the Saints, who may have entered full-blown rebuild mode, tanking 2025 before targeting Arch Manning in 2026’s draft"

The Saints have given zero indication that they aren't trying to contend, and the tanking for Arch stuff is amateur hour considering Silva's experience. Arch is completely unproven and no Manning has ever declared early.

"...Booker is a plug-and-play starting left guard with potential to eventually compete at left tackle"

This is approaching spit-take territory. Booker will never play LT in the NFL.

Some context for Barron: He played boundary at a 70% clip out of necessity. He thrived because he's just a really good player. However, he played exclusively inside as an underclassman - bouncing around in a Brian Branch-type role - and that's where he'll be most valuable at the NFL level. Silva should know that Barron isn't a top-5 value as a boundary corner. He has 29 inch arms for chrissakes.

Some thoughts a week out:

For my fellow draft prop odds watchers, am I the only one noticing some weirdness with Armand Membou? There's a lot of recent smoke that the Raiders will take Membou at 1.06 thanks to John Spytek's history of going hard and heavy on the trenches while at TB (including Wirfs, a similar prospect to Membou) and Dane Brugler's newest mock that pairs LV/Membou. Yet Membou's 6.5 O/U odds continue to bloat to the OVER and are currently at -400. If Membou makes a ton of sense for the Jets, then why doesn't he make a ton of sense for the Raiders? Or has Membou been overrated all along and is poised to slide?

Some predictions:

JAX will take Jeanty at 1.05. BPA. It's all about helping out Trevor Lawrence for the new regime. I get that Mason Graham is a tidy fit, but there should be good DT value available to JAX at 2.36. (Walter Nolen, Tyliek Williams, Alfred Collins, T.J. Sanders, maybe even Kenneth Grant or Derrick Harmon.)

Shemar Stewart goes top-10.

CAR opts for Mason Graham, Mykel Williams or Shemar Stewart over Jalon Walker, or trades down with a team looking to jump NO for a QB. Walker drops to the teens, perhaps to ARI to join Deone Bucannon, Isaiah Simmons and Zaven Collins in their line of 1st RD 'tweener busts.

If the Broncos go RB in the 1st RD, they'll opt for TreVeyon Henderson over Omarion Hampton. Darkhorse options for DEN: Walter Nolen and Derrick Harmon.

If Hampton slides to the Chiefs at 1.31, they'll take him.

The Colts will not draft a TE at 1.14. They'll draft Grey Zabel or Shedeur Sanders.

PHI will select Walter Nolen, Derrick Harmon, Mason Taylor or Nic Scourton.

The recent Tyler Shough buzz fizzles out as he slides to Day Three.

@The Champ 

For sure. Watts especially. Geno Stone is a cap casualty waiting to happen. Watts is going to be coveted by FS-needy teams looking to win now. After Malaki Starks, Watts is the only FS prospect ready to start.

I love that WAS/Henderson pick. Daniels/Henderson together in the backfield would be terrifying.

Can't see Shemar Stewart slipping out of the 1st RD. The upside is just too immense. That's a Myles Garrett athletic profile. Stewart currently has very healthy Vegas odds to go in the 1st RD.

ATL-related question: The Falcons currently have Ruke Orhorhoro as the starting NT on their depth chart. Orhorhoro is a decent run-stopper that I've heard ATL is high on, but he's very slim for a 3-4 NT. He seems to be best suited for 3-4 DE, but I've heard nothing as far as ATL kicking the tires on pure NTs like Kenneth Grant and Tyliek Williams during the pre-draft process. It seems a clogger like Grant would free up ATL's bevy of undersized edge-rushers to get home to the QB and improve that 29th-ranked sacks-from-pressure rate. Do you think ATL is really satisfied with Orhorhoro at NT? They've only had potential 3-4 DEs (TJ Sanders, Omarr Norman-Lott) in for Top30 visits. Just seems odd.

I love that WAS/Henderson pick. Daniels/Henderson together in the backfield would be terrifying.

Can't see Shemar Stewart slipping out of the 1st RD. The upside is just too immense. That's a Myles Garrett athletic profile. Stewart currently has very healthy Vegas odds to go in the 1st RD.

ATL-related question: The Falcons currently have Ruke Orhorhoro as the starting NT on their depth chart. Orhorhoro is a decent run-stopper that I've heard ATL is high on, but he's very slim for a 3-4 NT. He seems to be best suited for 3-4 DE, but I've heard nothing as far as ATL kicking the tires on pure NTs like Kenneth Grant and Tyliek Williams during the pre-draft process. It seems a clogger like Grant would free up ATL's bevy of undersized edge-rushers to get home to the QB and improve that 29th-ranked sacks-from-pressure rate. Do you think ATL is really satisfied with Orhorhoro at NT? They've only had potential 3-4 DEs (TJ Sanders, Omarr Norman-Lott) in for Top30 visits. Just seems odd.

@42yardline 

Revel is already 24 yet still raw, press-man boundary only and has had awful injury luck going back to H.S. I'm not convinced that he sneaks into the 1st RD like some mocks are predicting.

Will Johnson didn't run a forty at his workout for NFL scouts yesterday, and there are reports that he was clocking forty times in the high 4.5s during training. He could slide. He'd be a great fit opposite Benford in BUF's zone-heavy scheme.

This mock is air tight. It really is hard to argue with Vegas. Even the CHI/Warren match - which I don't think will happen - could be accurate in terms of prospect/pick number because 1.10 is easily a spot where a team like IND might move up for Warren.

My only beefs are with GB/Stewart and PIT/Dart.

Not that Gutekunst wouldn't grab Stewart and his RAS in a New York second - I just think Stewart comes off the board much earlier. We're talking about an EDGE prospect with the same athletic profile as Myles Garrett. Some team is going to bite on that upside early.

I just can't see Dart and his pop-gun, scheme specific arm in the AFC North - especially in PIT, where it still looks like it might be moon ball city. Milroe - as reachy as it feels - seems the fit there.

I think something weird will happen with the Giants at 1.03. Just a gut feeling. There are character whispers with Abdul Carter to go along with the injury red flags. Your CAR trade up makes a ton of sense, but I could also see a risk-averse, conservative organization like NY take Mason Graham. He's one of the safest picks in the draft and the Giants desperately need a 3T to complement Lawrence. First "shocker" pick? (Everybody in the universe has Graham locked in at 1.05, so two picks higher wouldn't be that shocking, IMO.)

And as always, it's Travis Hunter no matter what for the Titans. I will die on this hill.

The Browns are desperate for a QB and are the sucker organization that will move up for Ward. CLE sends 1.02, 2.33, 3.67, 3.94 and CB Craig Newsome II to TEN for 1.02 and 2.35. TEN drafts Hunter at 1.02, then trades into the 1st RD for Dart (who DOES fit Callahan's scheme). After the draft, TEN acquires Aaron Rodgers or Kirk Cousins as a bridge.

This mock is air tight. It really is hard to argue with Vegas. Even the CHI/Warren match - which I don't think will happen - could be accurate in terms of prospect/pick number because 1.10 is easily a spot where a team like IND might move up for Warren.

My only beefs are with GB/Stewart and PIT/Dart.

Not that Gutekunst wouldn't grab Stewart and his RAS in a New York second - I just think Stewart comes off the board much earlier. We're talking about an EDGE prospect with the same athletic profile as Myles Garrett. Some team is going to bite on that upside early.

I just can't see Dart and his pop-gun, scheme specific arm in the AFC North - especially in PIT, where it still looks like it might be moon ball city. Milroe - as reachy as it feels - seems the fit there.

I think something weird will happen with the Giants at 1.03. Just a gut feeling. There are character whispers with Abdul Carter to go along with the injury red flags. Your CAR trade up makes a ton of sense, but I could also see a risk-averse, conservative organization like NY take Mason Graham. He's one of the safest picks in the draft and the Giants desperately need a 3T to complement Lawrence. First "shocker" pick? (Everybody in the universe has Graham locked in at 1.05, so two picks higher wouldn't be that shocking, IMO.)

And as always, it's Travis Hunter no matter what for the Titans. I will die on this hill.

The Browns are desperate for a QB and are the sucker organization that will move up for Ward. CLE sends 1.02, 2.33, 3.67, 3.94 and CB Craig Newsome II to TEN for 1.02 and 2.35. TEN drafts Hunter at 1.02, then trades into the 1st RD for Dart (who DOES fit Callahan's scheme). After the draft, TEN acquires Aaron Rodgers or Kirk Cousins as a bridge.

Jahdae Barron and Matthew Golden in the 2nd RD is very unlikely. Arguably the top prospects at their respective (premium) positions.

Mike Green and Donovan Ezeiruaku in the 3rd RD?

Are you guys hearing something about Mike Green that we haven't heard? That flag must be blood red, because his traits/production/metrics profile is 1st RD all day.

Ezeiruaku's only "size limitation" is that he's barely sub-6'3". Great athlete with a solid base and the arm length/wingspan of a 6'5" guy. Deep bag of pass-rush tricks. Super bendy and ultra productive. Intelligent with pristine character. (Team unanimously voted him team captain.) Premium position. Top of the 2nd RD is his floor.

Emery Jones Jr. in the 1st RD is a Mr. Fantastic reach. Sushi raw. RT only. I don't get it.

Jahdae Barron and Matthew Golden in the 2nd RD is very unlikely. Arguably the top prospects at their respective (premium) positions.

Mike Green and Donovan Ezeiruaku in the 3rd RD?

Are you guys hearing something about Mike Green that we haven't heard? That flag must be blood red, because his traits/production/metrics profile is 1st RD all day.

Ezeiruaku's only "size limitation" is that he's barely sub-6'3". Great athlete with a solid base and the arm length/wingspan of a 6'5" guy. Deep bag of pass-rush tricks. Super bendy and ultra productive. Intelligent with pristine character. (Team unanimously voted him team captain.) Premium position. Top of the 2nd RD is his floor.

Emery Jones Jr. in the 1st RD is a Mr. Fantastic reach. Sushi raw. RT only. I don't get it.

This mock is air tight. It really is hard to argue with Vegas. Even the CHI/Warren match - which I don't think will happen - could be accurate in terms of prospect/pick number because 1.10 is easily a spot where a team like IND might move up for Warren.

My only beefs are with GB/Stewart and PIT/Dart.

Not that Gutekunst wouldn't grab Stewart and his RAS in a New York second - I just think Stewart comes off the board much earlier. We're talking about an EDGE prospect with the same athletic profile as Myles Garrett. Some team is going to bite on that upside early.

I just can't see Dart and his pop-gun, scheme specific arm in the AFC North - especially in PIT, where it still looks like it might be moon ball city. Milroe - as reachy as it feels - seems the fit there.

I think something weird will happen with the Giants at 1.03. Just a gut feeling. There are character whispers with Abdul Carter to go along with the injury red flags. Your CAR trade up makes a ton of sense, but I could also see a risk-averse, conservative organization like NY take Mason Graham. He's one of the safest picks in the draft and the Giants desperately need a 3T to complement Lawrence. First "shocker" pick? (Everybody in the universe has Graham locked in at 1.05, so two picks higher wouldn't be that shocking, IMO.)

And as always, it's Travis Hunter no matter what for the Titans. I will die on this hill.

The Browns are desperate for a QB and are the sucker organization that will move up for Ward. CLE sends 1.02, 2.33, 3.67, 3.94 and CB Craig Newsome II to TEN for 1.02 and 2.35. TEN drafts Hunter at 1.02, then trades into the 1st RD for Dart (who DOES fit Callahan's scheme). After the draft, TEN acquires Aaron Rodgers or Kirk Cousins as a bridge.

This mock is air tight. It really is hard to argue with Vegas. Even the CHI/Warren match - which I don't think will happen - could be accurate in terms of prospect/pick number because 1.10 is easily a spot where a team like IND might move up for Warren.

My only beefs are with GB/Stewart and PIT/Dart.

Not that Gutekunst wouldn't grab Stewart and his RAS in a New York second - I just think Stewart comes off the board much earlier. We're talking about an EDGE prospect with the same athletic profile as Myles Garrett. Some team is going to bite on that upside early.

I just can't see Dart and his pop-gun, scheme specific arm in the AFC North - especially in PIT, where it still looks like it might be moon ball city. Milroe - as reachy as it feels - seems the fit there.

I think something weird will happen with the Giants at 1.03. Just a gut feeling. There are character whispers with Abdul Carter to go along with the injury red flags. Your CAR trade up makes a ton of sense, but I could also see a risk-averse, conservative organization like NY take Mason Graham. He's one of the safest picks in the draft and the Giants desperately need a 3T to complement Lawrence. First "shocker" pick? (Everybody in the universe has Graham locked in at 1.05, so two picks higher wouldn't be that shocking, IMO.)

And as always, it's Travis Hunter no matter what for the Titans. I will die on this hill.

The Browns are desperate for a QB and are the sucker organization that will move up for Ward. CLE sends 1.02, 2.33, 3.67, 3.94 and CB Craig Newsome II to TEN for 1.02 and 2.35. TEN drafts Hunter at 1.02, then trades into the 1st RD for Dart (who DOES fit Callahan's scheme). After the draft, TEN acquires Aaron Rodgers or Kirk Cousins as a bridge.

This mock is air tight. It really is hard to argue with Vegas. Even the CHI/Warren match - which I don't think will happen - could be accurate in terms of prospect/pick number because 1.10 is easily a spot where a team like IND might move up for Warren.

My only beefs are with GB/Stewart and PIT/Dart.

Not that Gutekunst wouldn't grab Stewart and his RAS in a New York second - I just think Stewart comes off the board much earlier. We're talking about an EDGE prospect with the same athletic profile as Myles Garrett. Some team is going to bite on that upside early.

I just can't see Dart and his pop-gun, scheme specific arm in the AFC North - especially in PIT, where it still looks like it might be moon ball city. Milroe - as reachy as it feels - seems the fit there.

I think something weird will happen with the Giants at 1.03. Just a gut feeling. There are character whispers with Abdul Carter to go along with the injury red flags. Your CAR trade up makes a ton of sense, but I could also see a risk-averse, conservative organization like NY take Mason Graham. He's one of the safest picks in the draft and the Giants desperately need a 3T to complement Lawrence. First "shocker" pick? (Everybody in the universe has Graham locked in at 1.05, so two picks higher wouldn't be that shocking, IMO.)

And as always, it's Travis Hunter no matter what for the Titans. I will die on this hill.

The Browns are desperate for a QB and are the sucker organization that will move up for Ward. CLE sends 1.02, 2.33, 3.67, 3.94 and CB Craig Newsome II to TEN for 1.02 and 2.35. TEN drafts Hunter at 1.02, then trades into the 1st RD for Dart (who DOES fit Callahan's scheme). After the draft, TEN acquires Aaron Rodgers or Kirk Cousins as a bridge.

@42yardline 

I think the Bills will go D-line with their first pick. BUF needs to get over that KC hump. They saw what the Eagles did to the KC offense. AFC contenders are going to copy that blueprint.

The Bills have got to get a young, Jordan Davis-type run-stopper and an EDGE that can contribute immediately as high-quality insurance for Bosa. (Preferably a bendy EDGE screamer to complement the power games of Rousseau, Bosa and Hoecht)

Kenneth Grant is exactly what they need. With two 2nd-rounders, maybe BUF trades up if Grant starts slipping?

Tyliek Williams could be this draft's consolation prize for run-stopper needy teams that miss out on Kenneth Grant. He wouldn't surprise me at 1.30.

Green, Donovan Ezeiruaku and James Pearce are all candidates to slip to BUF and would have to be considered.

I have a hunch the Bills will come out of the 2nd RD with Xavier Watts. He's the ball-hawking FS BUF needs and he's pro-ready.

Jahdae Barron and Matthew Golden in the 2nd RD is very unlikely. Arguably the top prospects at their respective (premium) positions.

Mike Green and Donovan Ezeiruaku in the 3rd RD?

Are you guys hearing something about Mike Green that we haven't heard? That flag must be blood red, because his traits/production/metrics profile is 1st RD all day.

Ezeiruaku's only "size limitation" is that he's barely sub-6'3". Great athlete with a solid base and the arm length/wingspan of a 6'5" guy. Deep bag of pass-rush tricks. Super bendy and ultra productive. Intelligent with pristine character. (Team unanimously voted him team captain.) Premium position. Top of the 2nd RD is his floor.

Emery Jones Jr. in the 1st RD is a Mr. Fantastic reach. Sushi raw. RT only. I don't get it.

Great mock. The Membou fall is ballsy.

I like the DET/Scourton match. I wouldn't be surprised at all if Scourton sneaks into the late 1st.

If the Jets pick Josh Simmons at 1.07 that may be the last straw for me as a Jets fan. Aaron Glenn recently talked about "establishing culture" in this draft...Simmons is not a "culture" pick.

Why have the Titans done nothing to address WR or CB this offseason? Could it be because this draft's WR1 and CB1 are the same guy?

I've escaped the matrix, gentlemen. Tennessee is drafting Travis Hunter.

Jahdae Barron would be an insane value at 1.29, IMO, but - as you said - he's more NB than boundary corner. A boundary is what WAS needs. WAS already has Sainristil, Igbinoghene, Quan Martin and Jonathan Jones to rotate through the nickel spot. Barron might be redundant.

That PHI/Alfred Collins match is one I haven't seen and I like it. It makes a lot of sense and feels like a PHI pick. I have Collins going to MIA in the 2nd RD and have a nagging sense that I slotted him too low.